I like this guy's breakdown of our football schedule next year... Thoughts?

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Beyerball

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No way this team goes 8-5.. I could see at worst 9-4
Unless we have really significant injuries.. then all bets are off..

but the returning talent alone expectations should be no less than playing for big 12 title
 
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Aclone

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I have questions about how he came up with that “projected” total. Same question I have when I see ESPN calculating projected win totals based on percentages.

When I took my stat class many eons ago, one ting that struck me (and stuck with me) was when my professor asked a question about the statistical odds of an event happening multiple times.

In other words, if there is a 66 percent chance of something happening, what are the odds of it happening again?

Simple answer? 66%. No matter how many times you’re considering.

In other words, no cumulative multiplications of percentages.

Now then, I admit that I wasn’t the best student in that class, and it was decades ago—so, what am I missing?
 

TXCyclones

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He contradicts himself saying "at least Iowa State doesn't have a West Virginia and an Oklahoma, or a Texas and Oklahoma back to back", yet we DO have a West Virginia and Texas back to back. So that made little sense in terms of reasoning.
 

cytor

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Injuries are the ultimate X factor. Every year the 2 teams to make a Super Bowl are relatively injury free, or at least limited on injuries.

If ISU can stay away from that kind of bad luck, it should be a double digit winning season.
 
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jsb

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Anyone else absolutely terrified due to expectations
I suppose when it gets closer I will be. But I am going to enjoy the hell out of the next 6 months before the season starts. Fans being worried about expectations doesn't change anything. If things fall apart next year, it will hurt us just as bad if we don't have high expectations.

I do think this board will be a hot mess of **** next fall though because if the team gives up a god damn touchdown or fails to score a TD on every series, people will lose their ever loving mind.
 

Aclone

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He contradicts himself saying "at least Iowa State doesn't have a West Virginia and an Oklahoma, or a Texas and Oklahoma back to back", yet we DO have a West Virginia and Texas back to back. So that made little sense in terms of reasoning.
He was talking about both games on the road.
 

CascadeClone

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My biggest concern is the mid tiers on the road. WV, Tech, Kst, Baylor. ISU should be much better than all 4, but getting thru with 4 wins is far from a given.

OU on the road will be tough to say the least.

Texas, TCU, and OSU (who has had our number) at home are also not gimmies - Sarks new QB looked good in the bowl game, and TCU and OSU have veterans back too.

It's a tough conference kids. And I don't really like how the schedule sets up either. I would put the over/under on conference wins at 6.5, total wins at 8.5.
 

JM4CY

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I’m still just mentally adjusting and astounded that we live in a world where the Alamo would be considered by Many to be a bad year.
 
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Urbandale2013

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I have questions about how he came up with that “projected” total. Same question I have when I see ESPN calculating projected win totals based on percentages.

When I took my stat class many eons ago, one ting that struck me (and stuck with me) was when my professor asked a question about the statistical odds of an event happening multiple times.

In other words, if there is a 66 percent chance of something happening, what are the odds of it happening again?

Simple answer? 66%. No matter how many times you’re considering.

In other words, no cumulative multiplications of percentages.

Now then, I admit that I wasn’t the best student in that class, and it was decades ago—so, what am I missing?
Multiplying the percentages are because it is requiring multiple things to happen. If you use your example and already had the one outcome then yeah it’s still 66% to happen again. What they are actually doing is calculating the odds before the first try. So the odds of the first two going the one way are only 44%.

The second game is always the same but you have to factor in the odds on the first one going your way too.