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Discussion in 'Big XII Conference' started by JP4CY, Mar 4, 2017.
The big ones I see on that are obviously Bucknell, Bradley, Stanford and VCU. Wichita State was the 11th ranked team that year and was way underseeded. That had more to do with the NCAA than anything. So really your talking about 4 bad upsets in 15 years. Not bad for the NCAA tournament and you can find that many bad upsets with almost every team in 15 attempts.
Here's all the times that Coach K lost to a team seeded lower than his Duke team.
2014: (3) Duke loses to (14) Mercer Round of 64
2012: (2) Duke loses to (15) Lehigh Round of 64
2011: (1) Duke loses to (5) Arizona Sweet Sixteen
2009: (2) Duke loses to (3) Nova Sweet Sixteen
2008: (2) Duke loses to (7) West Virginia Round of 32
2007: (6) Duke loses to (11) VCU Round of 32
2006: (1) Duke loses to (4) LSU Sweet Sixteen
2005: (1) Duke loses to (5) Michigan State Sweet Sixteen
2004: (1) Duke loses to (2) UConn Final Four
2002: (1) Duke loses to (5) Indiana Sweet Sixteen
2000: (1) Duke loses to (5) Florida Sweet Sixteen
1998: (1) Duke loses to (2) Kentucky Elite Eight
1997: (2) Duke loses to (10) Providence Round of 32
1996: (8) Duke loses to (9) Eastern Michigan
1993: (3) Duke loses to (6) Cal Round of 32
1989: (2) Duke loses to (3) Seton Hall Final Four
1988: (2) Duke loses to (6) Kansas Final Four
1986: (1) Duke loses to (2) Louisville Title Game
1985: (3) Duke loses to (11) Boston College Round of 32
1984: (3) Duke loses to (6) Washington Round of 32
How many overall #1s win it all? Pretty rare isn't it?
Point well taken. I figured other coaches had examples, I was just more familiar with how Self had done. I figured K had done better than that, it's possibly overshadowed by having so many deep runs.
Duke hasn't done all that well the past decade, has it?
Upsets are what make the NCAA tournament so much fun to watch and why they pay over a billion dollars a year for the rights. It sucks when it's your team that gets upset but you can't deny the tournament itself is one of the more exciting sporting events there is. I wouldn't be surprised if the big conferences decide to start governing themselves and keep that money but that's a subject for an entirely different thread.
Duke has won twice this past decade so that makes up for the 3 first round losses. If KU had beaten UK in the final game and Self had 2 titles this past decade nobody would care about the UNI or Stanford losses. I think the UNI loss was much worse because that KU team could have won it all. The Stanford loss wasn't that big of a deal because once Embiid went down that team wasn't very good. Now if Mario doesn't make that 3 and Memphis wins that title Self would be in a completely different situation. The one place Self looks really bad compared to Coach K is Elite 8 games. Self has struggled there and Coach K has been unbelievable in that situation.
I think he has overachieved in the regular season, especially in Big 12 play. Part of that is due to favorable officiating.
Yep. If Kansas had beat that 2012 UK team (that had six guys get drafted, including 4 in the first round) we aren't having this conversation.
The tourney is as much about lucky breaks in your bracket as it is about being really good.
Duke's recent Final Fours:
2015: had to beat squishy soft #2 seed Gonzaga to get to Final Four after their #3 seed ISU lost in the Round of 64 (you guys would have beat Gonzaga that season and given Duke a better game than Gonzaga did)
2010: Had to beat Scott Drew and Baylor to get to the Final Four. I would kill for the chance to have Scott Drew between my team and a Final Four.
2004: had to beat a #7 seed to get to the Final Four after the #2, #3 and #4 seeds all lost prior to the Elite Eight
2001: had to beat #6 USC to get to the Final Four after the #2 and #3 seeds both lost prior to the Elite Eight
1999: had to beat a 16, a 9, a 12 and a 6 to get to the Final Four after the 2, 3, 4 and 5 all lost prior to the Elite Eight.
It's a truly rare event when a team makes it to the Final Four playing all of the hardest teams they could have faced along the way. You gotta get in a favorable bracket, have some luck with other good teams getting upset and you have to be healthy and shooting well at the right time. The tourney is WAY too much of a crap shoot to be firing a coach of Self's caliber due to a few early exits. Fortunately, the AD who makes the decisions typically has more intelligence and patience than the average fan that gets their panties in a wad if a good team falls short.
12 final 4's and 5 championships makes it more forgiving though
Agreed. And when Self has been at Kansas for 37 years I expect his number of Final Fours and national titles are better than they are now. All I ask as a fan and season ticket holder is to keep the team at a high enough level that we're in a legitimate conversation for teams that could make a run at the Final Four. Then once the tourney starts I just cross my fingers and hope things break our way.
Bill Self/Kansas has not underachieved in the postseason.
The reality is that most years there is little parity between seeds the #1-4 seeds. To advance all the way in a single elimination tournament you need to 1) be good and 2) have some luck.
I will not be surprised if Kansas gets bounced before the Elite 8 and I will still know that they were one of the best teams this year.
This may be hard to imagine, but the NCAA tournament doesn't always determine the unequivocally "best" NCAA team. The NBA playoffs or MLB World Series are better suited for that.
The biggest problem that bill "selfie" self has.... is the KU fanbase, which expects a natl championship every year....I talked to one KU fan that told me if the Jayhawks dont at least make it to the Final Four its a bad season....Boys and Girls its the old Expecations Game.....If U can win 1 natl championship why cant you win more and more natl titles.......etc etc
I think it's more they overachieve in conference play for some reason.
But seriously, I think a reasonable expectation from seven #1 seeds would be three (maybe 2) final 4s and 1 NC so I don't think they've underachieved.
Fixed Big 12 games don't do them any favors. Not a lot of dead ball 3s and half court no dribble layups in the NCAA tournament.
Having Embid get hurt killed their chances the year he played. With him they would have gone much further. That was the same year we lost Niang. So that was on year where the Big 12 should have had two teams, KU and ISU advance further.
There is way more parity these days. How many teams have made the final 4 more than once over the past decade? Butler, UConn, UNC, Duke, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Kentucky for sure. Any others?
If you think he has underachieved in the tourney take a look at how bad Huggins has been in the tourney.
A reasonable fan doesn't ever EXPECT a Final Four. Any KU fan who expects a Final Four every year is either A) an idiot or B) not someone who follows the sport or C) both. We expect to have a team capable of getting there.