This is from the Athletic's Stewart Mandel in his mailbag column today:
As some of the preseason rankings trickle out, it seems sportswriters really don’t know what to do with Iowa State. They have been ranked as high as No. 4, as low as No. 15, and everywhere in between. Iowa State is certainly in uncharted territory, so does that make them this year’s team that could shock the world … or fall hard? — Mike
Iowa State finished No. 9 in the country last season and brings back 20 starters. If Iowa State’s jerseys were burnt orange instead of cardinal and gold, that combo would be an automatic recipe for starting in the top four. Even if the Cyclones were, say, Wisconsin, with that same profile, I’m thinking no lower than No. 6 (behind Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia and Ohio State, in some order). But because Iowa State is Iowa State, and has literally never swum in these circles before, I can understand why there’s hesitation. This is after all still a team that lost 31-14 to Louisiana in last year’s season-opener, and whose big Fiesta Bowl win came against an Oregon team that finished 4-3.
I had the Cyclones No. 7 in my
early 2021 Top 25 in January, and I see no reason why they shouldn’t be right around the same place in my spring version, because, unlike some teams, not much has changed in Ames over the past three months. They’ve lost a few backups to the transfer portal, and picked up a couple of possible contributors. Brock Purdy is still the star QB, Breece Hall still the star running back, Big 12 sack leader Will McDonald is still priming to bring down QBs and Big 12 defensive player of the year Mike Rose is ready to rack up another 100 or so tackles.
The one thing that’s impossible to predict is how Matt Campbell’s team will handle unprecedented expectations. While Oklahoma remains the favorite in the Big 12, the Cyclones will start out with the kind of ranking that suggests it’s the type of team that should win at least 10 games. This is wild, considering Iowa State has never in its entire history won 10 games. (It went 9-2 in 2020.) Campbell’s program has thrived as the scrappy underdog for whom it’s still a big deal to beat Texas, as it has the past two seasons.
This year, Texas beating Iowa State would count as a big win for the ‘Horns.