Iowa did not lose anywhere near as much as we did. The situations don't even remotely compare. We lost not only one of our best graduating classes ever, but also the recruits who were supposed to replace them, and Long.
As for Shafer, his draw is going to determine how he does. With a tough draw he'll go 0-2, but with a good draw there's no reason he can't go 1-2 or 2-2. He won't be a threat to AA or anything, but he might score us some points.
I don't know how closely it compares, but Iowa lost 8 starters off last year's team. That's even more than we lost. They didn't lose the backups but they also didn't have anything that resembles our dropoff.
As for Shafer, he's going to get a terrible draw. He will be unseeded and face someone tough right off the bat. Sure, he can win a match...maybe.