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FiveThirtyEight: Iowa State is a contender (finally)

Cyclonepride

Cyclonepride

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FredCyclone

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dtISU said:
They were talking about it on KXNO yesterday. In 1985 Drake came into Ames and won. Let that sink in...
Click to expand...

Iowa state has been through some really lean years, it is great to see what Campbell has done here. He has taken us to some insane level, unimaginable just a few years ago.
 
2speedy1

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Cyclonepride said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-state-is-a-contender-finally/?ex_cid=538twitter

The thing that really caught my eye is the following image- I've never seen a more clear description of how bad the early 80's to late 90's really were.

Edit- the rating system (if I'm reading it correctly) is how we compared to the average team.

View attachment 60050
Click to expand...
What I see is you can almost overlay the Iowa and Iowa State charts, and it shows good years/periods for one equals down years for the other. It is amazing to see how much it matches up. Guess its just another reason to root against the Hoks.
 
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alarson

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knowlesjam said:
And shows you why Ferentz is still there...consistently above average teams...not elite, but always in that 7-8 win per season range.
Click to expand...

And rarely ever gets blown out when his teams do lose.It is ultimately the blowout games that kill a program. You have a down season but are competitive in every game it is a lot easier to sell hope. "We just need to be a little bit better and the wins will come".

That was the difference in year 1 with campbell as well. We went 3-9 but were competitive in a good number of the losses. Even moreso this year and last, where we havent lost a game by more than 10.

I felt like this was part of McCarney's problem back in the day. We picked up some wins, but in a lot of those losses we weren't even remotely competitive. There was no hope to sell that things would ever get above the plateau we were on.
 
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Cyclonepride

Cyclonepride

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alarson said:
And rarely ever gets blown out when his teams do lose.It is ultimately the blowout games that kill a program. You have a down season but are competitive in every game it is a lot easier to sell hope. "We just need to be a little bit better and the wins will come".

That was the difference in year 1 with campbell as well. We went 3-9 but were competitive in a good number of the losses. Even moreso this year and last, where we havent lost a game by more than 10.

I felt like this was part of McCarney's problem back in the day. We picked up some wins, but in a lot of those losses we weren't even remotely competitive. There was no hope to sell that things would ever get above the plateau we were on.
Click to expand...

Some of Mac’s early wins were pure motivation and belief, as the talent wasn’t quite there in the broader team-wide sense. Hard to get up that high consistently.
 
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madguy30

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Cyclonepride said:
Some of Mac’s early wins were pure motivation and belief, as the talent wasn’t quite there in the broader team-wide sense. Hard to get up that high consistently.
Click to expand...

Practically most of CPR's success felt like it was reliant on motivation although he had a couple of teams with decent talent but not all over like now.
 
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madguy30

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If they win tomorrow next week will be the next step.

There would nothing more 'ol Iowa State' than having Bill Snyder coming to town for possibly his last game with a conference title game appearance on the line.
 
Sigmapolis

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Using the same data, I reworked the lines to make ISU the zero line. Therefore, any difference for Iowa or Nebraska from zero is their difference from Iowa State.

upload_2018-11-16_18-42-33.png

That can be a little busy, so I did the same thing with a five-year centered moving average...

upload_2018-11-16_18-42-50.png

There have not been many eras where we are better than either team. You can maybe bring up the 1930s and 1940s with Nebraska and can certainly bring up the 1960s and 1970s with Iowa. There has never been an era where ISU was consistently better than both.

SRS actually says Iowa is a better team this year, by the way.
 
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burn587

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dualthreat said:
He hasn't taken us there, yet
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Maybe not in the W/L column but in terms of being competitive no matter the team we’re playing he is light years ahead of anyone since Bruce. Back in the days of the big 12 north we basically just hoped we were trending up in the years we didn’t play OU or Texas and the years that we did there was just hope to somehow scrape together 6 wins to be bowl eligible. Now it doesn’t matter what the schedule looks like, ISU will compete with anyone.
 
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