I was honestly just asking a question to try and figure out what he was saying.. And does this mean we have to wait 6 more days and then the data will be more accurate because it's assuming we will have stronger decisions made by then?
Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)
- Thread starter Jer
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I'm expecting Gov. Reynolds to announce what amounts to a shelter in place order at today's news conference.
No the model will always be messed up until they fix the assumptions. Don’t have their methodology so don’t know for sure exactly where it’s wrong. Assuming they just take where we are at currently as gospel separately from other factors then that is fine. It really depends on how they factor the next 7 days and the days after that. If they just use a base starting point and use a rate of transmission then it will always be overestimating the next 7 days. The time after that is probably ok.
I see what you are saying, and agree that needs to be taken into account, and I think in most models it is.
I also think there are models that can or could eventually capture benefits from people changing behaviors due to the guidance despite no SIP, but I don't believe most do. And if they did look at Iowa specific rates, for example, I think it will take a long time until those changed behaviors are fully captured. I think rates in many of the models for non-SIP states are including the initial high rate of change ramp up of the disease when people were slow to change behaviors.
Conversely I think because there is a definitive start point, SIP rates moving forward are going to look good.
But I'm arguing that the rate of transmission moving forward in a place operating like Iowa vs if we had official SIP are not going to be that different. That's based not just on observed behavior changes but by looking at rate of change in key metrics in Iowa now that changes in behavior are more widely adopted
https://www.press-citizen.com/story...ncellations-number-cases-shutdown/2937706001/
A doctor in Des Moines believes Polk county could see up to 10,000 cases in the coming weeks.
We'd have to see a major jump but holy cow.
A doctor in Des Moines believes Polk county could see up to 10,000 cases in the coming weeks.
We'd have to see a major jump but holy cow.
Look..Im not trying to downplay the Virus in any way so let me be clear about that..
1- Hospitals across America were already at 80%+capacity in the iCU's before this started..Many pts in the ICU were prob infected from HC workers over past 2 months and those ICU pts are now dying.
2- Mortality rate says its around 2% right now and has gone up a lot in past week bc many of these pts are now around the 30 day mark of being on the Vent. The Mortality rate isn't as high as we see on TV bc the infection rate is far far higher. At the low end let's say number of infections is double (400k is) that would put mortality rate at 1% not 2%..I'm merely guessing but i'd bet there are prob more than 1 million infected or more right now..This would put the real Mortality rate around 0.5%...Still bad but that is approaching normal Influenza level.
3- Love the example above of the person stocking shelves talking on cell phone with mask..People just aren't trained on proper infection prevention. When you've been in HC for decades you just get used to what you need to do and NOT do. STOP TOUCHING YOUR FACE!!!
4- Aside from being sneezed or coughed on directly...You cannot catch COVID if you do NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE!!
5- If you go out..to a store or wherever. DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE until you get home and have thouroughly washed your hands...Then touch your face all you want.
1- Hospitals across America were already at 80%+capacity in the iCU's before this started..Many pts in the ICU were prob infected from HC workers over past 2 months and those ICU pts are now dying.
2- Mortality rate says its around 2% right now and has gone up a lot in past week bc many of these pts are now around the 30 day mark of being on the Vent. The Mortality rate isn't as high as we see on TV bc the infection rate is far far higher. At the low end let's say number of infections is double (400k is) that would put mortality rate at 1% not 2%..I'm merely guessing but i'd bet there are prob more than 1 million infected or more right now..This would put the real Mortality rate around 0.5%...Still bad but that is approaching normal Influenza level.
3- Love the example above of the person stocking shelves talking on cell phone with mask..People just aren't trained on proper infection prevention. When you've been in HC for decades you just get used to what you need to do and NOT do. STOP TOUCHING YOUR FACE!!!
4- Aside from being sneezed or coughed on directly...You cannot catch COVID if you do NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE!!
5- If you go out..to a store or wherever. DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE until you get home and have thouroughly washed your hands...Then touch your face all you want.
Second most absorbing location is your junk (thanks pesticide training for that knowledge ). So wash your hands before and after using the facilities.
Im disturbingly more aware of how often my face itches, eyes itch, nose itches, get something in my eye, and so on
I've been washing my hands like crazy, because the day people made fun of Trump for touching his face during a COVID press conference, I realized it's almost impossible for me not to do it. Always have an itch under my eyes, or next to my nose.
Stay safe when driving thru the Johnston ghettos, dangerous out there. I never leave my association without my S&W 45 on my side.
i rest my hand on my chin/cheek all the time when sitting at the computer. sucks
I was driving so had to quick hand sanitize and then basically scratch an itch on my cheek and sanitize it at the same time.
And it didn’t happen. And won’t. Reynolds is going to get rocked by whoever runs against her in 2022.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
Did she announce anything?
I actually watched today, and 4 distractions came up right when the ed. secretary came up.
I actually watched today, and 4 distractions came up right when the ed. secretary came up.
Schools and same businesses closed till April 30. Shelter at home isn’t going to happen is what she basically said. Ever.
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