Regarding "the model," the data being used for the baseline already includes the effects of what is currently being done. That is to say, it already includes the effects of the current statewide school closures and non-essential business shutdowns. The model shows what would happen if we continued our current actions (based on the current data, which includes school/business closures), and THEN locked things down more in 7 days. So the model does include what you're doing now, because that's baked into the baseline data. Practically speaking, it may be an underestimate because you can't close schools more than they already have, but the model assumes you could.