Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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Statefan10

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No it just means that the model is all kinds of messed up.
I was honestly just asking a question to try and figure out what he was saying.. And does this mean we have to wait 6 more days and then the data will be more accurate because it's assuming we will have stronger decisions made by then?
 

Urbandale2013

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I was honestly just asking a question to try and figure out what he was saying.. And does this mean we have to wait 6 more days and then the data will be more accurate because it's assuming we will have stronger decisions made by then?
No the model will always be messed up until they fix the assumptions. Don’t have their methodology so don’t know for sure exactly where it’s wrong. Assuming they just take where we are at currently as gospel separately from other factors then that is fine. It really depends on how they factor the next 7 days and the days after that. If they just use a base starting point and use a rate of transmission then it will always be overestimating the next 7 days. The time after that is probably ok.
 
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AuH2O

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Maybe to state it another way: The schools that have already closed (all of them) and businesses that have already closed or implemented work-from-home (many of them) have produced the currently observed rates of transmission, hospitalization, ICU/vent needs and deaths. So any projection we make using the current data has to make the assumption that all those things continue, UNLESS we make adjustments to the model account for future actions. In this model, they are assuming that we can do much more - close schools, force shutdowns of non-essential businesses, etc. - but in reality we can't because those were done weeks ago. That's why I think there's a lot of risk that it's an underestimation.
I see what you are saying, and agree that needs to be taken into account, and I think in most models it is.
I also think there are models that can or could eventually capture benefits from people changing behaviors due to the guidance despite no SIP, but I don't believe most do. And if they did look at Iowa specific rates, for example, I think it will take a long time until those changed behaviors are fully captured. I think rates in many of the models for non-SIP states are including the initial high rate of change ramp up of the disease when people were slow to change behaviors.
Conversely I think because there is a definitive start point, SIP rates moving forward are going to look good.
But I'm arguing that the rate of transmission moving forward in a place operating like Iowa vs if we had official SIP are not going to be that different. That's based not just on observed behavior changes but by looking at rate of change in key metrics in Iowa now that changes in behavior are more widely adopted
 

Beyerball

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Look..Im not trying to downplay the Virus in any way so let me be clear about that..

1- Hospitals across America were already at 80%+capacity in the iCU's before this started..Many pts in the ICU were prob infected from HC workers over past 2 months and those ICU pts are now dying.

2- Mortality rate says its around 2% right now and has gone up a lot in past week bc many of these pts are now around the 30 day mark of being on the Vent. The Mortality rate isn't as high as we see on TV bc the infection rate is far far higher. At the low end let's say number of infections is double (400k is) that would put mortality rate at 1% not 2%..I'm merely guessing but i'd bet there are prob more than 1 million infected or more right now..This would put the real Mortality rate around 0.5%...Still bad but that is approaching normal Influenza level.

3- Love the example above of the person stocking shelves talking on cell phone with mask..People just aren't trained on proper infection prevention. When you've been in HC for decades you just get used to what you need to do and NOT do. STOP TOUCHING YOUR FACE!!!

4- Aside from being sneezed or coughed on directly...You cannot catch COVID if you do NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE!!

5- If you go out..to a store or wherever. DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE until you get home and have thouroughly washed your hands...Then touch your face all you want.
 
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Al_4_State

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Second most absorbing location is your junk (thanks pesticide training for that knowledge ). So wash your hands before and after using the facilities.

I've been washing my hands like crazy, because the day people made fun of Trump for touching his face during a COVID press conference, I realized it's almost impossible for me not to do it. Always have an itch under my eyes, or next to my nose.
 
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CycloneDaddy

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I just drive 4 blocks over to an area that was built at the same time without an association and it always looks a little more ghetto. Well as ghetto as Johnston gets.
Stay safe when driving thru the Johnston ghettos, dangerous out there. I never leave my association without my S&W 45 on my side.
 
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SoapyCy

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I've been washing my hands like crazy, because the day people made fun of Trump for touching his face during a COVID press conference, I realized it's almost impossible for me not to do it. Always have an itch under my eyes, or next to my nose.

i rest my hand on my chin/cheek all the time when sitting at the computer. sucks
 

ClonesTwenty1

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I'm expecting Gov. Reynolds to announce what amounts to a shelter in place order at today's news conference.
And it didn’t happen. And won’t. Reynolds is going to get rocked by whoever runs against her in 2022.
 

ClonesTwenty1

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Did she announce anything?
I actually watched today, and 4 distractions came up right when the ed. secretary came up.
Schools and same businesses closed till April 30. Shelter at home isn’t going to happen is what she basically said. Ever.
 
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