Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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isufbcurt

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Apr 21, 2006
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JHC, why does there seem to be a parade outside my window every day? A few days ago it was the teachers driving by, yesterday people were honking for a birthday, and just now about 15 cars(School aged kids) drove by and I have no clue why.

I really can't imagine people making it more than another month. We had people on Facebook nearly crying because "how can the association send me a letter (no fine) about leaving out my garbage can in a time when we're going through so much?". Here is an idea, if your greatest concern is a letter telling you to do what you agreed to do when you bought the house, you don't have real problems.

You should respond they get what they deserve for living in an area that has an association. Why anyone would want to live in an association area blows my mind.
 

Acylum

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Nov 18, 2006
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614 cases today (+65), 74 hospitalized (+12), 11 deaths (+2)
The Register has different numbers so I'm not sure of the discrepancy (showing 11 new hospitalizations vs 12). Anyway, the good news is there were 10 COVID 19 patients discharged for the previous reporting period. So only a +1 for hospitalizations.
 
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AuH2O

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Regarding "the model," the data being used for the baseline already includes the effects of what is currently being done. That is to say, it already includes the effects of the current statewide school closures and non-essential business shutdowns. The model shows what would happen if we continued our current actions (based on the current data, which includes school/business closures), and THEN locked things down more in 7 days. So the model does include what you're doing now, because that's baked into the baseline data. Practically speaking, it may be an underestimate because you can't close schools more than they already have, but the model assumes you could.
Disagree that most of the models do capture what we are actually doing in Iowa. Closed schools and closure of the relatively small list of what are strictly considered "non-essential" businesses does not reflect people working from home in essential businesses and people limiting being out in public In general.
If you look at the sensitivity to results for SIP in most models it is pretty clear that most models assume if there is an official SIP that adherence is really good and that if there is no official SIP that people are not modifying behavior other than what is captured in the school closure, non-essential business closure and large event closures. Neither is true.

Add to that the description of SIP in the model cited in the Press Citizen article is very close to what is actually happening in Iowa.
 

Acylum

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Disagree that most of the models do capture what we are actually doing in Iowa. Closed schools and closure of the relatively small list of what are strictly considered "non-essential" businesses does not reflect people working from home in essential businesses and people limiting being out in public In general.
If you look at the sensitivity to results for SIP in most models it is pretty clear that most models assume if there is an official SIP that adherence is really good and that if there is no official SIP that people are not modifying behavior other than what is captured in the school closure, non-essential business closure and large event closures. Neither is true.

Add to that the description of SIP in the model cited in the Press Citizen article is very close to what is actually happening in Iowa.
That model has really perplexed me so far. They have moved our peak out a long way recently but our predicted death toll keeps increasing along with that.
 

wxman1

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You should respond they get what they deserve for living in an area that has an association. Why anyone would want to live in an association area blows my mind.

Without derailing the thread it depends on the association. We had a great one in KS that had very reasonable dues and some nice amenities. The downfall is they do attract the busy bodies.
 

Statefan10

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That model has really perplexed me so far. They have moved our peak out a long way recently but our predicted death toll keeps increasing along with that.
And none of these assume we're going have some sort of big medical breakthrough or something along those lines right?
 

besserheimerphat

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Apr 11, 2006
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But the model doesn't know those are happening. So how does it assume those will continue for the next seven days?
The baseline data is a result of what has been done so far. Th baseline data reflects the efforts that have been implemented for at least a week (due to incubation periods). So if what has been done is having an effect, it's already in the baseline data that is used to make the initial projection. That initial projection is then adjusted (downward) on the assumption that additional actions with a given effectiveness will be implemented 7 days in the future. But if there are no additional actions that can or will be implemented, then adjusting the initial projection downward is a mistake.
 

dmclone

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Oct 20, 2006
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You should respond they get what they deserve for living in an area that has an association. Why anyone would want to live in an association area blows my mind.

I just drive 4 blocks over to an area that was built at the same time without an association and it always looks a little more ghetto. Well as ghetto as Johnston gets.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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I'd love to see Reynolds think outside the box. How about leaving the current restrictions in place but put a restriction that if you leave the house, you must wear a mask? I don't know what Japan is doing but their numbers seem to be low and I rarely see a picture out of Japan without someone wearing a mask. Make this as common as no shirt, no shoes, no service. I'm probably high..
[/MEDIA]

I posted weeks ago (probably in this thread) about Japan and masks. They don't wear masks to keep from getting sick. They wear them to keep others from getting sick. Cultural 180 from the US.

Though a basic scarf over your face does offer a little protection, it REALLY keeps you from spitting and coughing all over the place. It cuts down on the range of your virus transmission. I would support mandatory masks in public much more than a "lock down" or "shelter in place" or whatever you want to call it this week. I don't know if there is science to back that up or not, really. Just a gut feel on pain vs. gain tradeoff.
 

CloniesForLife

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I posted weeks ago (probably in this thread) about Japan and masks. They don't wear masks to keep from getting sick. They wear them to keep others from getting sick. Cultural 180 from the US.

Though a basic scarf over your face does offer a little protection, it REALLY keeps you from spitting and coughing all over the place. It cuts down on the range of your virus transmission. I would support mandatory masks in public much more than a "lock down" or "shelter in place" or whatever you want to call it this week. I don't know if there is science to back that up or not, really. Just a gut feel on pain vs. gain tradeoff.
I agree. How I understand it. Some of the reasons for the social distancing is because of what you described with the coughing and sneezing projecting the virus a long distance.
 

BCClone

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I posted weeks ago (probably in this thread) about Japan and masks. They don't wear masks to keep from getting sick. They wear them to keep others from getting sick. Cultural 180 from the US.

Though a basic scarf over your face does offer a little protection, it REALLY keeps you from spitting and coughing all over the place. It cuts down on the range of your virus transmission. I would support mandatory masks in public much more than a "lock down" or "shelter in place" or whatever you want to call it this week. I don't know if there is science to back that up or not, really. Just a gut feel on pain vs. gain tradeoff.

With all the masks going to medical providers, it would in essence make a lock down.
 

AuH2O

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That model has really perplexed me so far. They have moved our peak out a long way recently but our predicted death toll keeps increasing along with that.
Not sure, I just assume the data used as inputs are still bouncing around a lot.

I ceryainly think the models are valuable, particularly looking at trends and sensitivity to factors, provided they have good definitions.
The Register has different numbers so I'm not sure of the discrepancy (showing 11 new hospitalizations vs 12). Anyway, the good news is there were 10 COVID 19 patients discharged for the previous reporting period. So only a +1 for hospitalizations.
Anybody know a source that can show # of hospitalizations per day vs hospital discharges? That net is really the key number. It is going to go up for a while, and we have capacity for a while. But I am curious to see the rate of change of that net.
 

Statefan10

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So no matter what side you're on, or however you view this situation, we should be getting some more information today than we have had the past few from Governor Reynolds. She is suppose to be giving an update regarding some business closures as well as school closures and if she's going to extend those deadlines.

I also think there are going to be reporters asking some questions regarding her factors / criteria in which they measure their orders, as well as hopeful follow up questions on the model they dismissed during yesterday's press conference.
 

besserheimerphat

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Apr 11, 2006
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Disagree that most of the models do capture what we are actually doing in Iowa. Closed schools and closure of the relatively small list of what are strictly considered "non-essential" businesses does not reflect people working from home in essential businesses and people limiting being out in public In general.
If you look at the sensitivity to results for SIP in most models it is pretty clear that most models assume if there is an official SIP that adherence is really good and that if there is no official SIP that people are not modifying behavior other than what is captured in the school closure, non-essential business closure and large event closures. Neither is true.

Add to that the description of SIP in the model cited in the Press Citizen article is very close to what is actually happening in Iowa.
Maybe to state it another way: The schools that have already closed (all of them) and businesses that have already closed or implemented work-from-home (many of them) have produced the currently observed rates of transmission, hospitalization, ICU/vent needs and deaths. So any projection we make using the current data has to make the assumption that all those things continue, UNLESS we make adjustments to the model account for future actions. In this model, they are assuming that we can do much more - close schools, force shutdowns of non-essential businesses, etc. - but in reality we can't because those were done weeks ago. That's why I think there's a lot of risk that it's an underestimation.
 

BCClone

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So no matter what side you're on, or however you view this situation, we should be getting some more information today than we have had the past few from Governor Reynolds. She is suppose to be giving an update regarding some business closures as well as school closures and if she's going to extend those deadlines.

I also think there are going to be reporters asking some questions regarding her factors / criteria in which they measure their orders, as well as hopeful follow up questions on the model they dismissed during yesterday's press conference.

Wife who is a teacher, said they are supposed to get told tomorrow about after the 13th from the state.
 

Acylum

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Nov 18, 2006
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Heard this story from a former coworker of mine: He saw a lady wearing a mask and nitrile gloves while he was grocery shopping. Her cell apparently rings. She rummages around in her purse to find it. Pinches her mask to pull it down around her neck. Talks on her cell while touching items on the shelf, putting some of them back. Finishes her call, puts cell back in purse, then fumbles with her mask actually placing her thumb on the interior surface to position it back over her face. People have a HUGE false sense of security concerning what masks and gloves actually do. That's a problem.
 

Statefan10

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Maybe to state it another way: The schools that have already closed (all of them) and businesses that have already closed or implemented work-from-home (many of them) have produced the currently observed rates of transmission, hospitalization, ICU/vent needs and deaths. So any projection we make using the current data has to make the assumption that all those things continue, UNLESS we make adjustments to the model account for future actions. In this model, they are assuming that we can do much more - close schools, force shutdowns of non-essential businesses, etc. - but in reality we can't because those were done weeks ago. That's why I think there's a lot of risk that it's an underestimation.
So what you're saying is even though it doesn't state the strategies implemented, it's still somewhat accurate because they are using our current numbers and these numbers are produced by our current strategies?
 

Acylum

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Not sure, I just assume the data used as inputs are still bouncing around a lot.

I ceryainly think the models are valuable, particularly looking at trends and sensitivity to factors, provided they have good definitions.

Anybody know a source that can show # of hospitalizations per day vs hospital discharges? That net is really the key number. It is going to go up for a while, and we have capacity for a while. But I am curious to see the rate of change of that net.
Not exactly what you're looking for but you can extrapolate it. Scroll down to the "Hospitalizations due to coronavirus in Iowa" line graph.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-iowa-map-how-many-cases-there-and-where-they/5009556002/?utm_source=desmoinesregister-Coronavirus Watch&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline_greeting&utm_term=newsletter_greeting
Edit: You'll want to compare the Currently Hospitalized and the Discharged and Recovering numbers and keep in mind those are totals. So most recently 11 new admittances and 10 discharges.
 

Urbandale2013

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Jan 28, 2018
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So what you're saying is even though it doesn't state the strategies implemented, it's still somewhat accurate because they are using our current numbers and these numbers are produced by our current strategies?
No it just means that the model is all kinds of messed up.
 
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