Convince me the SEZ is a Good Investment (Long & Numbery)

[isufbcurt]

Jamie Pollard's job is to raise the level of football success in Ames - if he doesn't do that, he's doing a disservice to the university. In that context, I kind of understand where the SEZ expansion is coming from, but IMO, if he has $60M to invest in the football program, he's investing it in the wrong place, just based on the last 10 years worth of attendance data:

Year Attendance
2013: 55,361
2012: 55,274
2011: 53,647
2010: 45,395
2009: 46,242
2008: 47,429
2007: 49,462
2006: 46,171
2005: 46,705
2004: 44,822
2003: 41,518

So that is a 10 year attendance average of 48,366 - that's 88% of the current stadium capacity & 79% of the projected eventual capacity of 61,000. Generally, the only sound reason to increase capacity is a clear need for more capacity - is there a clear need for more capacity?

2011-2013 had great ticket sales - but there is certainly a logical reason season ticket sales increased: back to back bowl games in 2011/2012 as well as unprecedented media exposure after the win over a top 5 Oklahoma State team in 2011 (Biggest win in program history, right? That's going to lead to a big spike in season tickets, especially at the current low cost). Has any ISU football related clip got played more times in the national sports media than that OSU game and the ensuing Rhoad's "I'm so proud" speech? That game alone sold a lot of tickets from 2011-2013.

Pollard is going forward with this expansion without even seeing how a few down years (which, historically, are going to happen at ISU) affect the attendance - I'll gladly wager that the attendance average will be below 55,000 in 2014 if the season goes as expected. It's easy to sell season tickets when you have a couple of bowl games and a win over a top five program in your recent past, it's much more difficult coming off no bowl game and a losing season. Winning sells tickets, nothing else will.

In addition to the challenge of fielding a bowl team most seasons to maintain sellouts, ISU also will have to contend with increased ticket prices, which will inevitably lead to lower attendance. ISU is taking $100 hillside season tickets away and replacing them with (what will likely be) $300-$500 season tickets. What are the odds that a family of four who spent $400 in 2014 for hillside season tickets is going to ante up and buy season tickets @ $1,200? Some will, but I am certain not all will, which will lead to a decrease in attendance. And I'm not even going to speculate how much the current season tickets are going to go up after the renovation is complete - but it would be naive to think the prices will remain static given a $60M investment in Jack Trice.

Add to the above that ISU's 2014 season likely ends up with a regular season record of 3-9 +/- a game - unless Mangino is an absolute miracle worker - and that will make it really difficult selling season tickets at an increased cost going into 2015. This spring is the first time I'm hearing casual ISU fans say "Rhoad's better win this year or else..." - and that's before a potential rough year in 2014.

To me, it seems like the stadium expansion is a want, not a need - Pollard is putting the cart before the horse. There is really only one way an increased stadium capacity is a need: if ISU continues to win. Recruits win games - if ISU has $60M available for football - build some badass practice facilities or something that will really help you get recruits to campus - I don't think empty seats will get recruits to come to ISU.

What has changed so much from 2010 (where attendance was 45K) that Pollard thinks selling 61,000 seats consistently (likely at a higher cost where you are pricing out the current hillside season ticket holders) won't be a problem at ISU? The attendance spike has been impressive for ISU, but if I'm making a $60M investment, I'm waiting to see if that fan support is at least somewhat constant in a down year before pulling the trigger on this renovation. It seems to me like this renovation has the possibility of making ISU football look less "big time" when the 10 year average remains a constant and the stadium is 21% empty.

Your a Hawkfan so I don't care what you think


But regarding the bolded we already have badass practice facilities

 

[1100011CS]

So to sum it up: it's more relevant to look at a three year trend line that is skewed by back to back bowl game invites (which has happened, what, 3 or 4 times in program history?) AND the biggest football win in program history than it is to look at a 10 year trend line, which has more data that reflects how the program traditionally performs? Shame on me for using math. Again, tell me what has changed so substantially since 2010 that would cause the need for a major increase in seats.

You can throw out generic "this program has changed so much since 2010" lines all you want, I'd like to see some logical data points to prove that though - obviously I couldn't find those points on Hawkeye message boards, which is why I came here.

I don't think much has changed outside of back to back bowl games and major media exposure after the OSU game in 2011.

A 10 yr trend line IS NOT THE SAME as a 10 yr average. Shame on you for not knowing the difference between statistics and math. I suppose it makes sense...

 

[Cy Hard]

Anybody making fun of this guy and/or posting funny gifs etc. is doing it right. The rest shame on you. So in that respect shame on me. Saving grace hear, suck on it jelly tavern'hawkfan' trollio!

 

[delt4cy]

OP should dig a little deeper than the 10-year trend. Look into the trend per season and see how attendance declines towards the late fall games (especially with mediocre and poor teams).

One of the understated benefits (although most common sense) is replacing 5,000 grass seats on the South side with actual bleachers and a structure. Even if the cost of ticket is neutral to the hillsides, the ticket holder is alot more likely to come to a game in late November with a guaranteed seat instead of frozen grass seat on a slope.

 

[kentkel]

I see hokfan hasn't posted in quite a while. Probably returned to one of the hok message boards puffing out his chest on how he trolled CF. Either that or he got mad when someone asked him to convince us that Fran is a good coach.

 

[cyingreen]

Why would I try to convince a hok of anything?? They thru out the same basic arguments when we built JTS. Idiots then and now.

The uofi also threw out similar arguments way back in the 50's when Iowa State College wanted to upgrade to university status. The uofi president, Dr. Hancher, publicly stated that the state of Iowa needed only one university. The need for them to feel superior is always there.

 

[Max57]

...

2011-2013 had great ticket sales - but there is certainly a logical reason season ticket sales increased: back to back bowl games in 2011/2012 as well as unprecedented media exposure after the win over a top 5 Oklahoma State team in 2011 (Biggest win in program history, right? ....

Has any ISU football related clip got played more times in the national sports media than that OSU game and the ensuing Rhoad's "I'm so proud" speech? That game alone sold a lot of tickets from 2011-2013.

I won't get into how your choice of stats is irrelevant .... but the above note is incorrect. The "I'm so proud speech" happened in 2009 ... Rhoad's first year. I remember -- but for other reasons -- that day was surreal to me and that game only crystallized it further.

Edited to note ... I'm really excited for this, the exterior renderings from the south view from University Blvd look really cool.

 

[KnappShack]

Your post lost all credibility when you say the expansion is a want and not a need.

Have you followed the business of college athletics lately?

 

[RubyClone]

Are you looking for empirical evidence to jump ship from iowa?

I think you basketball season is enough to warrant that.

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

I see hokfan hasn't posted in quite a while. Probably returned to one of the hok message boards puffing out his chest on how he trolled CF. Either that or he got mad when someone asked him to convince us that Fran is a good coach.

Also, why did those idiots sink all that money into a basketball practice facility only to continue to suck? They should've spent it on finding a coach that isn't a psychotic *******. Funny how lil ol' ISU has the much smaller budget, yet the much better athletic department overall and this **** face is concerning himself over how our money is spent.

 

[3TrueFans]

It's not a completely ridiculous question. There is the question of what do we do if we fall off the cliff for a stretch of time and can't put butts in the seats. Ultimately though in the world of college sports if you're not moving forward you're falling behind, we can't just sit and be comfortable with what we have because nobody else is going to be doing that. Spending that much money is always going to have some risks that go along with it.

 

[cyclone87]

Jamie Pollard's job is to raise the level of football success in Ames - if he doesn't do that, he's doing a disservice to the university. In that context, I kind of understand where the SEZ expansion is coming from, but IMO, if he has $60M to invest in the football program, he's investing it in the wrong place, just based on the last 10 years worth of attendance data:

Year Attendance
2013: 55,361
2012: 55,274
2011: 53,647
2010: 45,395
2009: 46,242
2008: 47,429
2007: 49,462
2006: 46,171
2005: 46,705
2004: 44,822
2003: 41,518

So that is a 10 year attendance average of 48,366 - that's 88% of the current stadium capacity & 79% of the projected eventual capacity of 61,000. Generally, the only sound reason to increase capacity is a clear need for more capacity - is there a clear need for more capacity?

2011-2013 had great ticket sales - but there is certainly a logical reason season ticket sales increased: back to back bowl games in 2011/2012 as well as unprecedented media exposure after the win over a top 5 Oklahoma State team in 2011 (Biggest win in program history, right? That's going to lead to a big spike in season tickets, especially at the current low cost). Has any ISU football related clip got played more times in the national sports media than that OSU game and the ensuing Rhoad's "I'm so proud" speech? That game alone sold a lot of tickets from 2011-2013.

Pollard is going forward with this expansion without even seeing how a few down years (which, historically, are going to happen at ISU) affect the attendance - I'll gladly wager that the attendance average will be below 55,000 in 2014 if the season goes as expected. It's easy to sell season tickets when you have a couple of bowl games and a win over a top five program in your recent past, it's much more difficult coming off no bowl game and a losing season. Winning sells tickets, nothing else will.

In addition to the challenge of fielding a bowl team most seasons to maintain sellouts, ISU also will have to contend with increased ticket prices, which will inevitably lead to lower attendance. ISU is taking $100 hillside season tickets away and replacing them with (what will likely be) $300-$500 season tickets. What are the odds that a family of four who spent $400 in 2014 for hillside season tickets is going to ante up and buy season tickets @ $1,200? Some will, but I am certain not all will, which will lead to a decrease in attendance. And I'm not even going to speculate how much the current season tickets are going to go up after the renovation is complete - but it would be naive to think the prices will remain static given a $60M investment in Jack Trice.

Add to the above that ISU's 2014 season likely ends up with a regular season record of 3-9 +/- a game - unless Mangino is an absolute miracle worker - and that will make it really difficult selling season tickets at an increased cost going into 2015. This spring is the first time I'm hearing casual ISU fans say "Rhoad's better win this year or else..." - and that's before a potential rough year in 2014.

To me, it seems like the stadium expansion is a want, not a need - Pollard is putting the cart before the horse. There is really only one way an increased stadium capacity is a need: if ISU continues to win. Recruits win games - if ISU has $60M available for football - build some badass practice facilities or something that will really help you get recruits to campus - I don't think empty seats will get recruits to come to ISU.

What has changed so much from 2010 (where attendance was 45K) that Pollard thinks selling 61,000 seats consistently (likely at a higher cost where you are pricing out the current hillside season ticket holders) won't be a problem at ISU? The attendance spike has been impressive for ISU, but if I'm making a $60M investment, I'm waiting to see if that fan support is at least somewhat constant in a down year before pulling the trigger on this renovation. It seems to me like this renovation has the possibility of making ISU football look less "big time" when the 10 year average remains a constant and the stadium is 21% empty.

I'm willing to bet that there will be season tickets for around $175 (maybe even less in the upper bowl corners) in the corners of the endzone bowl, that is the big reason for the 3,000 seat club ($750). We will subsidize (to a certain degree) the lower priced seats with the cost of the club seats imo. Pollard is a smart guy there is no way he is doing this without having it thought out. Also, yes the project is $60 million but it will be intersting to see how much athletic dept funds actually get spent on it and how much is donated (of course we already know $25 million is, but there could be a bit more).

 

[HFCS]

Hawkeye fans don't like Pollard.
Hawkeye fans don't like CPR.
Hawkeye fans ridiculed the hiring of Hoiberg and still claim they're doing things in some better way.
Hawkeye fans don't like that the Big 12 has stabilized.
Hawkeye fans don't like SEZ.

The OP is the best sign possible that the latest draft of the SEZ and a 61k capacity is absolutely perfect.

 

[aeroclone]

 

[HFCS]

I'm willing to bet that there will be season tickets for around $175 (maybe even less in the upper bowl corners) in the corners of the endzone bowl, that is the big reason for the 3,000 seat club ($750). We will subsidize (to a certain degree) the lower priced seats with the cost of the club seats imo. Pollard is a smart guy there is no way he is doing this without having it thought out. Also, yes the project is $60 million but it will be intersting to see how much athletic dept funds actually get spent on it and how much is donated (of course we already know $25 million is, but there could be a bit more).

Even KU is starting to seriously kick around football stadium improvement. The new and stabilized Big 12 is starting to pay some dividends, we'd be idiots not to act now with the combo of record attendance and revenue.

 

[kyle22kjs]

Few reasons Hawk Fans have a reason to be jealous/nervous of where ISU programs are going.


1. Football Facilities are better than there's
2. Paul Rhoads - Need I say more?
3. SEZ - True BCS Stadium
4. Increased Enrollment
5. Tailgating Space
6. As ISU fans we are better at managing our expectations (never to high/low)
7. Fred Hoiberg
8. Exciting Recruiting
9. Big12>Big10

 

[Clonefan94]

It's not a completely ridiculous question. There is the question of what do we do if we fall off the cliff for a stretch of time and can't put butts in the seats. Ultimately though in the world of college sports if you're not moving forward you're falling behind, we can't just sit and be comfortable with what we have because nobody else is going to be doing that. Spending that much money is always going to have some risks that go along with it.

Not for an ISU fan, who is actually contributing to the growth of the program. It's a ridiculous question for a fan of another team, who has probably never donated a cent to ISU to care what we do. If everyone went though life with the "We are going to fail" attitude, we'd still be huddled in caves, waiting for the next deer to walk by so we could hopfully kill it. You said it perfectly, if we sit and wait, which we did for 30 years since the stadium was built, we fall behind.

 

[A-town Cy]

we got a huge donation specifically for the project. i guess we should have turned the money down?

"I mean.....come on... It was $60 million dollars...I mean...come on"

 

[TXCyclones]

The $60M spent on the SEZ is a FAR better investment than ANY money spent on Fran McCaffrey or UofI basketball. And when you look at return on investment, why on earth would any money be spent on Carver Halkeye Arena when UofI can't get 5,000 people to a basketball game?

 

[Max57]

I just wish we had a pipeline of crazy D-lineman and a few stud linebackers.