Convince me the SEZ is a Good Investment (Long & Numbery)

[Judoka]

Jamie Pollard's job is to raise the level of football success in Ames - if he doesn't do that, he's doing a disservice to the university. In that context, I kind of understand where the SEZ expansion is coming from, but IMO, if he has $60M to invest in the football program, he's investing it in the wrong place, just based on the last 10 years worth of attendance data:

Year Attendance
2013: 55,361
2012: 55,274
2011: 53,647
2010: 45,395
2009: 46,242
2008: 47,429
2007: 49,462
2006: 46,171
2005: 46,705
2004: 44,822
2003: 41,518

So that is a 10 year attendance average of 48,366 - that's 88% of the current stadium capacity & 79% of the projected eventual capacity of 61,000. Generally, the only sound reason to increase capacity is a clear need for more capacity - is there a clear need for more capacity?

2011-2013 had great ticket sales - but there is certainly a logical reason season ticket sales increased: back to back bowl games in 2011/2012 as well as unprecedented media exposure after the win over a top 5 Oklahoma State team in 2011 (Biggest win in program history, right? That's going to lead to a big spike in season tickets, especially at the current low cost). Has any ISU football related clip got played more times in the national sports media than that OSU game and the ensuing Rhoad's "I'm so proud" speech? That game alone sold a lot of tickets from 2011-2013.

Pollard is going forward with this expansion without even seeing how a few down years (which, historically, are going to happen at ISU) affect the attendance - I'll gladly wager that the attendance average will be below 55,000 in 2014 if the season goes as expected. It's easy to sell season tickets when you have a couple of bowl games and a win over a top five program in your recent past, it's much more difficult coming off no bowl game and a losing season. Winning sells tickets, nothing else will.

In addition to the challenge of fielding a bowl team most seasons to maintain sellouts, ISU also will have to contend with increased ticket prices, which will inevitably lead to lower attendance. ISU is taking $100 hillside season tickets away and replacing them with (what will likely be) $300-$500 season tickets. What are the odds that a family of four who spent $400 in 2014 for hillside season tickets is going to ante up and buy season tickets @ $1,200? Some will, but I am certain not all will, which will lead to a decrease in attendance. And I'm not even going to speculate how much the current season tickets are going to go up after the renovation is complete - but it would be naive to think the prices will remain static given a $60M investment in Jack Trice.

Add to the above that ISU's 2014 season likely ends up with a regular season record of 3-9 +/- a game - unless Mangino is an absolute miracle worker - and that will make it really difficult selling season tickets at an increased cost going into 2015. This spring is the first time I'm hearing casual ISU fans say "Rhoad's better win this year or else..." - and that's before a potential rough year in 2014.

To me, it seems like the stadium expansion is a want, not a need - Pollard is putting the cart before the horse. There is really only one way an increased stadium capacity is a need: if ISU continues to win. Recruits win games - if ISU has $60M available for football - build some badass practice facilities or something that will really help you get recruits to campus - I don't think empty seats will get recruits to come to ISU.

What has changed so much from 2010 (where attendance was 45K) that Pollard thinks selling 61,000 seats consistently (likely at a higher cost where you are pricing out the current hillside season ticket holders) won't be a problem at ISU? The attendance spike has been impressive for ISU, but if I'm making a $60M investment, I'm waiting to see if that fan support is at least somewhat constant in a down year before pulling the trigger on this renovation. It seems to me like this renovation has the possibility of making ISU football look less "big time" when the 10 year average remains a constant and the stadium is 21% empty.

 

[clone52]

Jamie Pollard's job is to raise the level of football success in Ames - if he doesn't do that, he's doing a disservice to the university. In that context, I kind of understand where the SEZ expansion is coming from, but IMO, if he has $60M to invest in the football program, he's investing it in the wrong place, just based on the last 10 years worth of attendance data:

Year Attendance
2013: 55,361
2012: 55,274
2011: 53,647
2010: 45,395
2009: 46,242
2008: 47,429
2007: 49,462
2006: 46,171
2005: 46,705
2004: 44,822
2003: 41,518

So that is a 10 year attendance average of 48,366 - that's 88% of the current stadium capacity & 79% of the projected eventual capacity of 61,000. Generally, the only sound reason to increase capacity is a clear need for more capacity - is there a clear need for more capacity?

2011-2013 had great ticket sales - but there is certainly a logical reason season ticket sales increased: back to back bowl games in 2011/2012 as well as unprecedented media exposure after the win over a top 5 Oklahoma State team in 2011 (Biggest win in program history, right? That's going to lead to a big spike in season tickets, especially at the current low cost). Has any ISU football related clip got played more times in the national sports media than that OSU game and the ensuing Rhoad's "I'm so proud" speech? That game alone sold a lot of tickets from 2011-2013.

Pollard is going forward with this expansion without even seeing how a few down years (which, historically, are going to happen at ISU) affect the attendance - I'll gladly wager that the attendance average will be below 55,000 in 2014 if the season goes as expected. It's easy to sell season tickets when you have a couple of bowl games and a win over a top five program in your recent past, it's much more difficult coming off no bowl game and a losing season. Winning sells tickets, nothing else will.

In addition to the challenge of fielding a bowl team most seasons to maintain sellouts, ISU also will have to contend with increased ticket prices, which will inevitably lead to lower attendance. ISU is taking $100 hillside season tickets away and replacing them with (what will likely be) $300-$500 season tickets. What are the odds that a family of four who spent $400 in 2014 for hillside season tickets is going to ante up and buy season tickets @ $1,200? Some will, but I am certain not all will, which will lead to a decrease in attendance. And I'm not even going to speculate how much the current season tickets are going to go up after the renovation is complete - but it would be naive to think the prices will remain static given a $60M investment in Jack Trice.

Add to the above that ISU's 2014 season likely ends up with a regular season record of 3-9 +/- a game - unless Mangino is an absolute miracle worker - and that will make it really difficult selling season tickets at an increased cost going into 2015. This spring is the first time I'm hearing casual ISU fans say "Rhoad's better win this year or else..." - and that's before a potential rough year in 2014.

To me, it seems like the stadium expansion is a want, not a need - Pollard is putting the cart before the horse. There is really only one way an increased stadium capacity is a need: if ISU continues to win. Recruits win games - if ISU has $60M available for football - build some badass practice facilities or something that will really help you get recruits to campus - I don't think empty seats will get recruits to come to ISU.

What has changed so much from 2010 (where attendance was 45K) that Pollard thinks selling 61,000 seats consistently (likely at a higher cost where you are pricing out the current hillside season ticket holders) won't be a problem at ISU? The attendance spike has been impressive for ISU, but if I'm making a $60M investment, I'm waiting to see if that fan support is at least somewhat constant in a down year before pulling the trigger on this renovation. It seems to me like this renovation has the possibility of making ISU football look less "big time" when the 10 year average remains a constant and the stadium is 21% empty.

There are a multitude of reasons.
1) If Iowa State has good, competative teams, they won't have any trouble filling 61,000 seats.
2) The timing is perfect. They had a down year last year. The prospects of a new stadium will keep the fan base excited and buying tickets.
3) It will help recruiting by making the stadium experience even greater.
4) Due to the small press box, there is a limited number of luxury boxes and the demand for them exceeds the supply. More so than anything maybe is the additional luxury suites that the south end zone will generate more and more revenue.
5) New college grads will buy more tickets. Maybe not as much because of debt, but there are more that want to than ever before because of the excitement.
6) This won't have any affect on hillside season ticket sales. They don't sell those out season ticket wise, so each and every former hillside season ticket holder can still buy hillside tickets and sit on the north side. The family of 4 who paid $400 last year (actually more like $300 since the kids were probably Jr. Cyclones) will pay the same amount for hillside season tickets.
7) The new upper deck corner seats will probably be the low cost point for actual seats, on par with what they currently sell end zone seats. The old end zone seats sell out every year. Some people that are on the hillside would probably prefer end zone seats if they could buy them. I know a few people that would buy season tickets if they could get the end zone seats, but won't buy hillside so they are not seasont ticket holders. This expansion will give them more low cost point seats to pull in new season ticket holders who will likely upgrade to better seats with donations as they get older and more financially stable.
8) More so than ever in my lifetime, young kids are becoming Iowa State fans. The Cyclone Tailgate tour generates big crowds. Kids can get free hillside tickets to football games, which makes it far, far easier for a family to take their kids Iowa State games than it would be to go to Iowa games at the moment. Admissions to Iowa State are increasing faster than admissions to Iowa. Basically, Iowa State's fan base is growing faster than Iowa's and Iowa State needs to be in the forefront.
9) Iowa State is not investing $60 million in the stadium. They are investing $35 million. The other $25 million are a donation.
10) Ticket prices will likely increase, thats true. However, thats most likely true for the prime seats. The expansion will add plenty of cheaper seats in the end zone. Plus, if Iowa State didn't do the expansion and kept selling out each games, ticket prices would increase just the same. If there is demand for seats, Iowa State will get as much money out of those seats as they can. With the expansion, there will be more supply, so you may even end up seeing the average cost of a ticket go down (if you take out hillside tickets).
11) Probably the #1 reason is to see how much it makes Hawkeye fans squirm.

 

[CapnCy]

Maybe to someone who just looks at that number, but there are other numbers at play.
You can get an ISU Season ticket for $175. That is not out of line for someone just out of college to be spending on their entertainment budget at all. ISU's first bowl game in a long time was 2000. The generation that saw that happen is now in their 30s and has a much higher interest in ISU athletics in general than those that were in school for the 20 years before them. I know the term "This isn't your father's ISU" is used by some to talk about how the team is more competitive now, but to me that also means I'm not driving to the game to get there 10 mins before with 25000 other people at the game. The atmosphere on gameday around Ames is so much different than it was when I was a kid sitting wherever I wanted in the stadium.
The surge in attendance is only partly due to actually having a competitive football team and moreso, IMO, to the seeds that have been planted over the last 15 years.

Agree 100% on this. AND, as we continue to get the most in-state students to attend ISU, have the highest enrollment, etc, we'll continue to have more alumni who, likely, are more local (or their families get hooked on ISU while their kid is here).

That's actually one of the reasons I DO support programs like the Junior Cy club, family friendly events, etc because you tip the scales on the Tavern Hok fans around the state and get them hooked early. The tailgate tour is a great example...ISU is accessible to our fans.

 

[2forISU]

I have no doubt that the first game of 2015 will be sold out.

 

[hawkfan]

So to sum it up: it's more relevant to look at a three year trend line that is skewed by back to back bowl game invites (which has happened, what, 3 or 4 times in program history?) AND the biggest football win in program history than it is to look at a 10 year trend line, which has more data that reflects how the program traditionally performs? Shame on me for using math. Again, tell me what has changed so substantially since 2010 that would cause the need for a major increase in seats.

You can throw out generic "this program has changed so much since 2010" lines all you want, I'd like to see some logical data points to prove that though - obviously I couldn't find those points on Hawkeye message boards, which is why I came here.

I don't think much has changed outside of back to back bowl games and major media exposure after the OSU game in 2011.

 

[CyArob]

OP is right. JP should be using the $60 million to pay recruits.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I have no doubt that the first game of 2015 will be sold out.

You're absolutely right. UNI games typically bring record attendance...

 

[keepngoal]

Are you on the Board of Regents? If you answered NO, then convincing you doesn't matter. And really is a time waster as your position is already known and you aren't looking objectively... you could say you are firmly entrenched.

If you answered YES to my BoR question, please talk Jamie Pollard and ask him to convince you as he is the best person for facts and reasons behind the upgrade. Do you need his email address?

-keep

 

[CycloneErik]

3 straight years of huge attendance gains is all he needs. Since we sell tickets in high #s for every opponent now, that's the justification.

Probably an arms race justification, too. Can't afford to sit there quietly while those around us in the Big 12 go nuts with improvements.

 

[hawkfan]

There are a multitude of reasons.
1) If Iowa State has good, competative teams, they won't have any trouble filling 61,000 seats.

You could have stopped right here....this was my point in the OP - as long as you win consistently, filling a 61,000 seat stadium won't be an issue. What suggests ISU is going to start winning consistently? Again, this is cart before the horse #1 has to happen or nothing else matters.

You cite stadium experience, but that won't increase if there are still 48,000 fans in the stands - all you've done is made the experience look worse. And again, you're going to lose fans in the stands if you increase season ticket prices coming off a losing season - why do you think Iowa pushed back their reseating from 2013 to 2014? They knew they'd lose season ticket purchasers (and not capitalize on donations) coming off a 4-8 season in 2012.

It comes down to winnings - that historical average isn't going to change if you don't win - why is ISU going to start winning now? IMO, a really badass practice facility is a better investment - impresses recruits, who start to win consistently. If ISU had the kind of run KSU had in the 90's, this expansion would make all kinds of sense...

 

[Stormin]

This post got me thinking...it would actually be a very fascinating research study for someone smarter than me to do...it'd have to be in depth, but look at statistics of attendance, success, recruiting, facilities, coaching salaries, etc (again, lots of data points trying to find correlation between it all. And, likely, it wouldn't be conclusive because there are SO many variables. But, in theory, we COULD take that 25 million and go to Nick Saban and say "we'll give you a 3 year, 8 million a year contract" and would that be a better long term investment?

As you all know, unfortunately, it is an arms race. How many times to uniform threads pop up? has NOTHING to do with success on the field. And, for every recruit we may lose because of our single uniform, do we pick up one if we keep Yancy and his staff/facility fully stocked?

No. That would be a short term investment with no long term value. And it would not happen anyway. Take Saban away from a football power and place him at ISU and I will guarantee that he will not have it as easy as you might think.

 

[isuno1fan]

We are doing it for the sole purpose of pizzing off tavernhawks like yourself.

Well worth the investment.

 

[hawkfan]

OP is right. JP should be using the $60 million to pay recruits.

LOL...yes, if JP could go all SEC with that cash, I have no doubt ISU would be competing for Big XII titles within a few years.

 

[CtownCyclone]

The perfect place for the hot tubs is on the patio area of the Jake overlooking the North End Zone.

So long as they're still on the table. I'm going to lobby the regents to make sure this is an adder.

 

[hawkfan]

No. That would be a short term investment with no long term value. And it would not happen anyway. Take Saban away from a football power and place him at ISU and I will guarantee that he will not have it as easy as you might think.

It wouldn't happen, I agree, but it would be a better long term investment IMO - if ISU could win 9-10 games 4 or 5 times in a decade, that is the way to fill a 61,000 seat stadium for decades - you would have created a load of new fans who otherwise likely wouldn't have become ISU fans.

 

[CYVADER]

we got a huge donation specifically for the project. i guess we should have turned the money down?

 

[nj829]

Why not?

How much revenue is Iowa's new indoor practice facility generating? None? Then why are they building a new one when the bubble accomplished the same thing?

 

[clone52]

So to sum it up: it's more relevant to look at a three year trend line that is skewed by back to back bowl game invites (which has happened, what, 3 or 4 times in program history?) AND the biggest football win in program history than it is to look at a 10 year trend line, which has more data that reflects how the program traditionally performs? Shame on me for using math. Again, tell me what has changed so substantially since 2010 that would cause the need for a major increase in seats.

You can throw out generic "this program has changed so much since 2010" lines all you want, I'd like to see some logical data points to prove that though - obviously I couldn't find those points on Hawkeye message boards, which is why I came here.

I don't think much has changed outside of back to back bowl games and major media exposure after the OSU game in 2011.

You claim that a 3 year trend line is irrelevant, that its all due to a single upset against the #2 ranked team and a couple bowl games.

The fact is, Iowa State has had some big upsets before and have been to a couple bowl games, but have never been able to capitalize on them. Prior to 2011, the Top 10 attendences at Jack Trice had been UNI, Nebraska and Iowa games. Nothing else matched them. Now the top 10 games include Western Illinois, Kansas State, OSU, OU.

There is no gaurentee they'll keep it up. Last season was rough, but even in a rough season, they managed to have 2 games I'll remember for a long time (the frozen game with Kansas and the comeback against WVU). For me, that was maybe the biggest reason this feels like a real change. Iowa State went 3-9 and I didn't feel terrible at the end of the year. Plus, I believe that no team could handle the kind of injury attrition they had on the offensive line, so I believe the season was a fluke.

 

[Cyclonin]

So to sum it up: it's more relevant to look at a three year trend line that is skewed by back to back bowl game invites (which has happened, what, 3 or 4 times in program history?) AND the biggest football win in program history than it is to look at a 10 year trend line, which has more data that reflects how the program traditionally performs? Shame on me for using math. Again, tell me what has changed so substantially since 2010 that would cause the need for a major increase in seats.

You can throw out generic "this program has changed so much since 2010" lines all you want, I'd like to see some logical data points to prove that though - obviously I couldn't find those points on Hawkeye message boards, which is why I came here.

I don't think much has changed outside of back to back bowl games and major media exposure after the OSU game in 2011.

You are saying (in your first post) the 60 million should go towards better facilities that help gets recruits to ISU. How in the world don't you think a HUGE stadium upgrade will help that? We have great practice facilities and other facilities for the athletes. I don't know if our gym is "state of the art" because it seems everyone call their facilities that, but we've never heard a negative about them.

We are selling out football games at this, and getting damn near close to capacity. How is that not showing it is at least somewhat of a "demand?"

I don't expect ISU to ever be a football powerhouse, I as a fan like the opportunity to travel somewhere over the winter to watch them play, and I don't expect too much more.

As others have said, this isn't ALL about football, it is in conjunction with a university grand entrance.

We fortunately have some wealthy alumni that wanted to see this project through, so the $25 mil donation also played a big role in it.

I keep going back to your argument though, why not invest this in better facilities? I don't understand as that is exactly what we are doing.

To sum it up... Better/Bigger Stadium could mean better recruits which could mean better teams which could mean more fans. Also its not like we are having a huge expansion. If you take the published number of capacity right now (56,800) and calculate the addition of 4,200 seats, you get a whooping 7.4% increase. With the larger student population (25% increase over the past 7-8 years) I don't see a shortage of alumni.

I do appreciate you asking the question, as I don't think you are trying to troll, but it's pretty obvious (at least through my cardinal and gold glasses) that this 60 mil investment is a good one. At this point with our facilities already a plus, where would this money go if not into the stadium itself?

 

[clone52]

You could have stopped right here....this was my point in the OP - as long as you win consistently, filling a 61,000 seat stadium won't be an issue. What suggests ISU is going to start winning consistently? Again, this is cart before the horse #1 has to happen or nothing else matters.

You cite stadium experience, but that won't increase if there are still 48,000 fans in the stands - all you've done is made the experience look worse. And again, you're going to lose fans in the stands if you increase season ticket prices coming off a losing season - why do you think Iowa pushed back their reseating from 2013 to 2014? They knew they'd lose season ticket purchasers (and not capitalize on donations) coming off a 4-8 season in 2012.

It comes down to winnings - that historical average isn't going to change if you don't win - why is ISU going to start winning now? IMO, a really badass practice facility is a better investment - impresses recruits, who start to win consistently. If ISU had the kind of run KSU had in the 90's, this expansion would make all kinds of sense...

The Iowa State fan base is growing incredibly fast and it won't have any problem making the stadium investment make sense. I mean, Paul Rhodes hasn't won more than 7 games in a single season and they are setting all kinds of attendance records. Iowa State is winning road games in the big 12. They are beating ranked teams. This is just stuff they haven't done in 30 years.