COLUMN: An analysis on the future of Iowa State basketball

[Sigmapolis]

You can’t honestly watch Big 12 games this year and not see it’s worse than it’s probably ever been. How is WVU even in the conversation? They are 7-9 in the Big 12 and keep plummeting. There are 2 really good teams and the rest aren’t good.

You kind of remind me of the SEC types in football that only want to judge a conference by the top handful of teams rather than top-to-bottom. You also trust your eye test over computer efficiencies.

Sorry, but I try to take a more holistic and objective view and look at a total conference, especially one with a balanced schedule like ours. So we should talk about that right now. The Big 12 has been better in the recent past, but it has also been much worse.

There were some *real* clunker programs during the McDermott and early Hoiberg eras in the Big 12. Think of programs like Nebraska before they left, Texas A&M at times before they left, and some of those really bad TCU, early Drew era Baylor, and usually pitiful Texas Tech programs before Chris Beard.

Neither we nor somebody like Oklahoma State were very good this year, but we were nowhere near as hopeless as some of those other teams I have described above. Some of them only won 1-2 games in the Big 12 and single-digits overall, or worse, and at least we are not that level of awful.

Look at the top — Baylor and Kansas have legitimate cases to be #1 and #2 nationally, and they are 1-2 on most computer rankings. Both *should* be #1 seeds and Final Four teams. It is probably the best both have been this decade. That is as dominant of 1-2 as the conference as ever had/ever will.

Even the middle is not that soft. WVU went from 5-10 in the computer rankings to roughly #20 now, and as much as WVU has slipped, TTU has improved and rose up the table. This is not the apex Big 12 of Hield, Mason, Morris, and Niang from a few years ago, but it still an excellent league right now.

It might look a little uglier with offensive numbers down, but they are down across college basketball because of the longer three-point shot. Everybody looks a little uglier because of that.

 

[awd4cy]

You kind of remind me of the SEC types in football that only want to judge a conference by the top handful of teams rather than top-to-bottom.

Wait, if I was doing that wouldn’t I think the Big 12 is really good then?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Wait, if I was doing that wouldn’t I think the Big 12 is really good then?

“Handful” > 2

I stand by what I said about the eye test versus the computer rankings. The B12 is not at its absolute best right now, but it has been worse.

 

[MJN]

It had 2 Cyclone legends on it and 6 players who ended up in the NBA. I'm not sure why the talent on that team is debatable.

Not saying it wasn't talented. It was. The team also only had 6 guys that were capable of playing D1 basketball. The team as a whole wasn't as good as the year before IMO

 

[MJN]

You know you are in trouble when the other coaches in the league advocate for you in the post presser a la McDermott.

What are the odds that TJ replaces Prohm?

Prohms buyout is huge. TJ's is about the same at UNLV. If Prohm fired after next year it would take 8 million to get that scenario. Don't see it happening

 

[Statefan10]

His first season he went 10-8 in conference with what might have been the most talented Cyclone teams in recent history. That's a pretty big underachievement. We were only 1 game above 7th place that year and playing on Wednesday

And that was arguably the strongest the Big 12 had ever been that year. Iowa State lost two games against Big 12 teams that year that were not ranked at the end of the year in the Top-25, both of those games came on the road and both of those games went to overtime (@ Texas, and @ Texas Tech). Even Texas that year was ranked the last 5 weeks but didn't end up making it in the final poll. The rest of the losses came to #25 Baylor 2x (1 OT game), @ #3 OU (lost by 4), #14 WVU 2x, @ #1 KU.

That 2015-2016 team was no doubt talented, but literally didn't have a bench. You had Deonte Burton as the 6th man, and he was not even close to being the same player that year that he was the following. We had Hallice Cook and Jordan Ashton coming off the bench as well, but neither of those guys are very good players.

Take away the '99-'01 conference records, and 10-8 would give you the 3rd best conference record of all time at Iowa State. Also, we ended up getting a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament and made the Sweet 16.. To go farther in the NCAA tournament, or to compete for a regular season Big 12 Title, you have to have a bench. You just have to. You can't rely on your core guys to carry you because there will be a night where a few guys aren't on their A-game and you need other guys to step up and carry their weight. We didn't have that because Prohm was named the head coach in the month of May and had zero ability to recruit at that point.

 

[jsb]

And that was arguably the strongest the Big 12 had ever been that year. Iowa State lost two games against Big 12 teams that year that were not ranked at the end of the year in the Top-25, both of those games came on the road and both of those games went to overtime (@ Texas, and @ Texas Tech). Even Texas that year was ranked the last 5 weeks but didn't end up making it in the final poll. The rest of the losses came to #25 Baylor 2x (1 OT game), @ #3 OU (lost by 4), #14 WVU 2x, @ #1 KU.

That 2015-2016 team was no doubt talented, but literally didn't have a bench. You had Deonte Burton as the 6th man, and he was not even close to being the same player that year that he was the following. We had Hallice Cook and Jordan Ashton coming off the bench as well, but neither of those guys are very good players.

Take away the '99-'01 conference records, and 10-8 would give you the 3rd best conference record of all time at Iowa State. Also, we ended up getting a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament and made the Sweet 16.. To go farther in the NCAA tournament, or to compete for a regular season Big 12 Title, you have to have a bench. You just have to. You can't rely on your core guys to carry you because there will be a night where a few guys aren't on their A-game and you need other guys to step up and carry their weight. We didn't have that because Prohm was named the head coach in the month of May and had zero ability to recruit at that point.

he was named the head coach in June. It was around June 10th.

 

[Statefan10]

he was named the head coach in June. It was around June 10th.

I stand corrected. So even less time for Steve to be able to put a full team together. Like I said before, if that 2015-2016 team was going to be unbelievable, Fred had to stay. Or, he would've actually left Iowa State in April and given Prohm even a sliver of time to try and pick up some capable players. I understand Fred couldn't technically leave yet because there were things that needed to be ironed out as far as the NBA situation went, but him playing the waiting game completely screwed everything for that year.

We were what we were that year.. A talented team that needed another piece or two to be phenomenal. We truly lost only 1 bad game that year, while also winning a bunch of good ones.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Prohms buyout is huge. TJ's is about the same at UNLV. If Prohm fired after next year it would take 8 million to get that scenario. Don't see it happening

Prohm just signed a new deal last year due to his rebound season and rumors of him going to Alabama among other positions. This has been a tough year and it is fine to question that was a good decision but, I don't see JP as reactive less than a year later and changing coaching, rightfully so. It is a commitment on both sides that ensure Prohm will be his mind for 2 more years (possibly after next if we don't see improvement and player attrition). Prohm has earned another year due to the prior 5 not just this year and his contract reflects it.

Reality it is better to let Prohm hit the transfer market add another player to the top 20 class and see if he can turn it around. If he were to buy Prohm out that is X less dollars to get a better coach thus ISU will likely end up with a mid-major Prohmish resume coach who will be tasked with a total rebuild assuming the current recruits de-commit. Then our fanbase need to be ready for a full rebuild.

I do think TJ would be an attractive candidate for JP but only after only one year at UNLV the timing may not be right from either sides perspective to set ISU for a quick turn around. Who else better would be ready for