I'm being totally serious here. If you go three years on Heyward you may need to pay him $100 million or have options for more years and a lot more money. With teams having analytics departments that will value things like baserunning and defense appropriately, and considering he has reached FA before reaching the typical prime for a hitter, he is going to get PAID.
MLB: ***Chicago Cubs 2015 Season***
- Thread starter ISUCubswin
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I'm being totally serious here. If you go three years on Heyward you may need to pay him $100 million or have options for more years and a lot more money. With teams having analytics departments that will value things like baserunning and defense appropriately, and considering he has reached FA before reaching the typical prime for a hitter, he is going to get PAID.
Nope. But I also realize young, controllable arms are high-valued assets, so they'll cost something valuable in return. Carrasco and Salazar would fill in nicely at #3 and #4, with probably Hendricks at #5. Salazar is only 25 with decent upside and Carrasco is only 28 while posting FIPs below 2.9 the last two years (and given that Theo is an analytics fan, he may value FIP over ERA when looking at trade scenarios). Plus they'll both be much cheaper than overpaying a 31 year old with lots of mileage, and in the case of Price, an awful postseason resume.
Baez doesn't have a spot in the current infield and can be traded for good value right now because of upside, Soler can be replaced in FA (and with someone with exceptionally better defensive skills), Vogelbach has no future in Chicago playing behind Rizzo and not having another position and Jimenez is expendable given the recent signing of Eddy Julio Martinez. I realize Soler's contract is very team friendly, but to pull off a blockbuster, you have to give up some pieces you may regret giving up, plus it's out there that the Cubs may make a run at Heyward, which would be an upgrade in RF.
I can't see 3/70 being good enough for Hayward. Even if the Cardinals don't, somebody is going to give him the ~10 years he's looking for. He'd be taking on a lot of risk to do a short-term contract now when he can lock up his career and $200 million or so right now.
Yeah, I think Carrasco is probably the most valuable player in that deal. Baez probably wouldn't work for the Indians considering they maybe have the best or 2nd best middle infield in all of baseball locked up for years.
I'm not sure they would, they are giving up some quality pitching in that deal. It sounds pretty fair to me, there's a decent chance Baez completely busts, I think Soler is going to be a great hitter but he's still unproven. You need to get a lot back to give up two quality young, cost controlled arms.
Here's a better article written by a Cardinal fan:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/10/21/9591142/dear-2015-cubs-thank-you
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/10/21/9591142/dear-2015-cubs-thank-you
right they won't come cheap, but they also wouldn't cost more than the Rangers gave up for Cole Hammels (by alot) That's two A+ prospects (Baez, Soler) a B+ prospect (Jiminez) and a C prospect for two pitchers who by your own admission would slot #3 and #4 in he Cubs rotation. No thanks.
I'd rather have Price, Soler, Baez, Jiminez than Salazar and Carrasco but that's just me
I'm not sure Salazar is that good (or that likely to stay healthy over a full season)
I bet they would. Hamels is past his prime with a huge contract. The two guys he listed are much younger, and both under team control through 2020. There's a ton of value in that and they both have put up similar or better numbers than Hamels in a tougher league the last couple of years.
again, I don't think Salazar is that good.
Also, I'll take whatever bet you want to throw out that Baez won't be a complete bust. As bad as he was offensively last year, he was still just under replacement level (and that includes a negative defensive WAR, which I believe is a sample size issue)
WORST case scenario Baez turns into Dan Uggla with better defense, and Uggla was an above average player before he completely fell apart. Even .200 hitters are valuable if they're hitting 35 homers a year and playing good defense.
Other than wanting Price, I pretty much agree with your sentiments. However, I don't think there are a lot of young, controllable arms available for trade which makes it more expensive to do so. Meaning, if the Cubs are serious about trading for this type of pitching, they're going to have to pony up. Plus, getting two such young arms would be huge, especially given that the Cubs' hitters' peak is yet to come, while a bunch of 31-33 year old pitchers will be seeing their window closing soon.
And while I admitted that they'd be #3 and #4, to be fair, any young controllable arm that comes in will be slotted behind Arrieta and Lester (unless it's someone like Sale or Gray).
Again, this is just my opinion, but I think young controllable arms are a much better investment than overpaying for 30 somethings.
I don't know why you would balk at Fowler's asking price then pay more for Hayward. Cubs can offer Fowler a qualifying offer which I think is around $16 mil and get draft pick compensation if he leaves, I'm guessing the pricetag on Fowler is going to be in the $18-20 mil range so why would you be willing to pay $23 mil a year to Hayward who is a corner outfielder and middle of the lineup batter where Fowler feels a need in CF and leadoff man. To be honest I think there is a better chance of retaining Fowler than signing Hayward but realistically I don't see either happening and the Cubs fill the CF spot with a cheaper option internally, in a trade or going after someone like Denard Span who is coming off an injury shortened season and surely won't get huge offers and may not even get a qualifying offer from the Nationals as they would be on the hook for about $15.8 mil if he took it and have a guy within their system to replace him with.
If Schwarber and Soler are going to be the primary corner OFs next season getting a solid defensive CF should be a priority.
If Schwarber and Soler are going to be the primary corner OFs next season getting a solid defensive CF should be a priority.
And lastly, to be clear, I'm not just focused on Carrasco and Salazar. They're just enticing to me because you could get a package of two young arms at once. I also wouldn't mind seeing the Cubs think about going after Jake Odorizzi and Nathan Eovaldi in Tampa (not sure if realistic, though). As an aside, I also think the Cubs should explore a Zach Wheeler trade if they can convince the Mets to take something less than normal given his TJ surgery.
why couldn't Heyward play centerfield and bat leadoff if you want to get technical.
You are worried about a 31 pitcher with a lot of mileage on his arm (Price) and you want to trade a ton of talent for a 2 guys who have both already had major arm injuries and Carrasco was shelved this year with a shoulder issue.
Ask yourself this... Why is Cleveland actively looking to trade a 25 year old with "decent upside" and a 28 year old they just signed to an incredibly team friendly 4 year (+ 2 option years) deal this past spring?
I just don't see him as a natural CF. He's only played 32 games in his career in CF otherwise he's been a RF all of his career.. He does have a better OBP than I had thought. Just 4 AB this season as a leadoff hitter too. I see him more of a #5 hitter if you put him in this Cubs lineup
That's not the worst case for Baez, worst case is hitting like .175 with a 35+% K-rate. Baez also has never shown the ability to take walks like Uggla did. I like Baez and he looked much improved prior to the NLCS this year in both the minors and in Chicago, but there's a ton of risk involved with any team trading for him.
I'm not totally sold on the idea of batting Heyward leadoff, but he would be a more than capable option in centerfield, I agree. Hell, he'd likely be an upgrade defensively. He's got great range and a plus-plus arm.
Depending on how he progresses, I could see Russell being a good leadoff option.
