Brett McMurphy article on possibilities for 2020 football season

cycloneG

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The danger in this virus is, in large part, about how it can spread quickly and overwhelm our healthcare system. A 60,000 person crowd? One person could infect a fuckton of people there. A couple hundred guys at a football game? Much lower risk. If one gets it, theyre A) not going to spread it to many, and B) generally in the lowest of risk groups, and C) easier to test that relatively small number regularly and isolate any who turn up positive (you'll never test all 60,000 people entering JTS on a saturday morning, obviously)

Most football coaches fall in the high risk group.
 

isufbcurt

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So what number do we need to hit for deaths or cases for people to get that there’s not going to be football this fall?

If it's still bad come August, then Covid19 will just be something we live with and individuals will have to make the decision whether they want to give up the stuff they enjoy (going to sporting events, going to concerts, going to a wedding, eating out in a restaurant, going to a movie, going to the bar, etc.). For me personally if it come to that I am ok taking the risk of getting it so I can get back to enjoying going to fb/bb games, going out to eat, going to concerts, etc.
 

madguy30

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So what number do we need to hit for deaths or cases for people to get that there’s not going to be football this fall?

And how many more stories do we need like this that are evidence that people literally aren't paying enough attention to this? In SEC country!?

The best is this person: 'When can we get back to normal? I mean, I was hanging out having a few beers with a bunch of friends last night and we got really deep into a conversation about why it wasn't under control yet. I said mid-May since there were less new cases reported in my state than two days ago.'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/didn-t-know-until-last-122146774.html
 

madguy30

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If it's still bad come August, then Covid19 will just be something we live with and individuals will have to make the decision whether they want to give up the stuff they enjoy (going to sporting events, going to concerts, going to a wedding, eating out in a restaurant, going to a movie, going to the bar, etc.). For me personally if it come to that I am ok taking the risk of getting it so I can get back to enjoying going to fb/bb games, going out to eat, going to concerts, etc.

Are you ok with spreading it to others at these events and potentially killing them?
 

isufbcurt

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Are you ok with spreading it to others at these events and potentially killing them?

If they also accept the risk of being there then we all accept the risk.

If people think things are going to be shut down forever or that we are never going to have "large" gathering events again then you are living in a fantasy world.
 

CloniesForLife

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What if there is some immunity built up because enough people have gotten it in the next few months'?
 

Gunnerclone

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If they also accept the risk of being there then we all accept the risk.

If people think things are going to be shut down forever or that we are never going to have "large" gathering events again then you are living in a fantasy world.

But after you leave that game are you all going to quarantine for 14 days?

that’s why this is fantasy land. There’s not going to be any large gatherings allowed until people get vaccinated. People just need to start living with that reality. No concerts, no sportsball games, no art festivals, no campgrounds, no any of that stuff.
 

madguy30

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If they also accept the risk of being there then we all accept the risk.

If people think things are going to be shut down forever or that we are never going to have "large" gathering events again then you are living in a fantasy world.

That's a fair point.

I don't expect a forever shut down. I just don't think we'll be ahead of it enough by the time next year's sports seasons come around. Get a vaccine readily available, and accessible, and that's when we'll see a change. That's reportedly a year at the earliest from now.

Maybe if the antibody thing takes off and has merit, we see a drastic turnaround.
 

exCYtable

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From everything I'm seeing and reading, the chances of a CyHawk game this year are about .00005 percent. And I'm strangely ok with that, although I really liked our chances this year, even on the road.
 

Al_4_State

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Just to be clear to those responding to my post, I'm asking why would there be no crowds allowed at games or no non -football playing students allowed back on campus once an "all clear" to return to life as normal has been given.

There's not going to be a switch thrown where 100% of everything comes back at once.

I would bank on the world looking pretty much normal this fall in terms of day-to-day life, with large crowds still being restricted.

By Fall of 2021, there should be a vaccine, and that should reopen mass gatherings.
 

WhoISthis

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But after you leave that game are you all going to quarantine for 14 days?

that’s why this is fantasy land. There’s not going to be any large gatherings allowed until people get vaccinated. People just need to start living with that reality. No concerts, no sportsball games, no art festivals, no campgrounds, no any of that stuff.
It’s hard to fathom this still needs to be explained!

isufbcurt is just like those selfish church goers that keep going to church. It’s not about the other idiots you see at the needles event, it’s the person at the supermarket or nurse you put at risk.

I do think risk tolerance will have to increase due to our government’s failures. Testing and medical infrastructure will help, but we’ll likely need to accept we cannot get the curve low enough. The fortune will continue to shelter, the lucky survive infection as they carry out muted social-economic activity (not gathering at football games).

If things don’t improve dramatically, no way lawyers allow colleges to hold these events. Perhaps they can find enough players and coaches to have streaming only games, but we’ll see
 

norcalcy

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If it's still bad come August, then Covid19 will just be something we live with and individuals will have to make the decision whether they want to give up the stuff they enjoy (going to sporting events, going to concerts, going to a wedding, eating out in a restaurant, going to a movie, going to the bar, etc.). For me personally if it come to that I am ok taking the risk of getting it so I can get back to enjoying going to fb/bb games, going out to eat, going to concerts, etc.

This is exactly where I see myself getting to. We're flattening the curve with actions now. Mortality rates will become much clearer very soon. The disease is going to spread over the population eventually. Everybody can make their own choice, but I'm not staying in a hole for 18 months.
 

WhoISthis

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This is exactly where I see myself getting to. We're flattening the curve with actions now. Mortality rates will become much clearer very soon. The disease is going to spread over the population eventually. Everybody can make their own choice, but I'm not staying in a hole for 18 months.
Big difference between staying in a hole and 50k to 100k attending college football games.
 

CyJack13

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"While the athletic directors stress that the safety and health of student-athletes is paramount, the ADs also realize how critical it is financially for the universities and athletic programs to have a football season once an “all-clear” is given for life to return to normal."

If this is the case, why would there be no fans and no students on campus?

I get that people really want to have football, but all of these solutions are taking unneccesary risks, it's hard to see any realistic scenario where they play next year.
 

cycloneG

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This is exactly where I see myself getting to. We're flattening the curve with actions now. Mortality rates will become much clearer very soon. The disease is going to spread over the population eventually. Everybody can make their own choice, but I'm not staying in a hole for 18 months.

I've been social distancing for three weeks and I certainly don't feel like I'm living in a hole. I've spent a lot of time outside.
 
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norcalcy

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I've been social distancing for three weeks and I certainly don't feel like I'm living in a hole. I've spent a lot of time outside.

I get your point but it's starting to get difficult to listen to people talk about things being shut down for multiple months. Close family member got laid off today because of this thing. Her job was in what a lot of people would consider a 'non-essential' industry. Her company was absolutely devastated because people can't gather. But it was still her job and her economic support. A lot us that are social distancing and working from home are doing OK (and still getting paid for now). But, when we talk about things being "frivolous" or "non-essential" like sports, restaurants or other industies, there are people who make their living off the infrastructure that supports that stuff. Curt is making a cost benefit argument. That argument is coming to the broader economy whether we like it or not and that includes "frivolous" pursuits like college and pro sports.
 

mkadl

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9 games seems like a mess both for determining the playyoff field but also for independents and G5 who need the scheduling with P5 teams who may have 9 game conference schedules. Plus taking away large OOC rivalries.

Its tricky for sure.

If we're discussing holding games without crowds anyway, a lot of options open up for scheduling at neutral sites. The big 12, having a lot of southern footprint, could run a winter schedule if all games were moved to texas-either at schools or at true neutral sites like ATT stadium\Alamodome. The big 10 doesnt have that option, but it could schedule a bunch of games in indoor venues in Detroit, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis.

For a year seed teams to a region. 6 team divisions. Round robin 128 teams. 1st and second place get in the playoffs. Thats 64 teams. That would be a total of 10 games. Have a losers bracket to keep others playing???? ya I just had a beer! ISU iowa Missouri Nebby Minnesota Kansas
 
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isufbcurt

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But after you leave that game are you all going to quarantine for 14 days?

that’s why this is fantasy land. There’s not going to be any large gatherings allowed until people get vaccinated. People just need to start living with that reality. No concerts, no sportsball games, no art festivals, no campgrounds, no any of that stuff.

You really believe that? You think they are going to just ban large restaurants, campgrounds, any type of fair or festival, soccer all over the world? It's not going to happen, the reality is the power players won't allow it.