Blum Preview Column: The season of wait & see

[ChiefCy]

Awesome read, as usual. The 3-and-out stat is simply mind-boggling for a BCS level program, and highlights the inept nature of everything related to our offense. That kind of lack of productivity goes WAY beyond injuries and attitudes. Our offense was in a vegetative state with terminal cancer, had driven off a cliff, was an Amtrak trainwreck - pick your metaphor. Simply inexcusable. We had a sense for how bad things were, but that's really a key to pinpointing the problems we had offensively and how that was making life very difficult for a pretty undermanned defense which needed the offense's help for once.

I can relate to Blum on the horses. I'm someone, who for a long time, put horses in the "big and scary" category of creatures. I attribute it to a time when I was 5 or 6 years old and it was a "feed the horse a sugar cube" thing at the farm moment. Anyway, that horse nipped my hand a little with its teeth which looked the size of bricks. It's been hard but this had reduced quite a lot over the years. As I've gotten older, I've some to understand and feel for these creatures more and more, particularly, since I've been told I somewhat resemble these fine animals - their hind quarters specifically.

Hey tone it down a little no need to insult horses like that!

 

[PabloDiablo]

I'm sure you meant 132 yards for UNI in the first half. Didn't realize it was a 12 yard average. Wow that was tough to watch.

This might be the most embarassing stat I've seen since I began following ISU many moons ago. I'll leave it to those with a broader knowledge of stats (Khaal and Blum) to prove me wrong. :smile:

 

[GWad]

I like to feed horses apples.

I like eggs. Billy Crystal

 

[djkent01]

I remember reading a CW column quite awhile back about the gamble Rhoads was taking in his recruiting approach - he indicated we were recruiting body types and athletes. Thus all the comments about Big 12 bodies and athleticism that have been abundant on this site. If that was true, the real wait and see is if that approach works. In my mind, if we get to four or five wins this year and emerge next year I'll say it was a success. Another 3 win season and I will not have faith in our ability to develop these recruits into players.

It's a novice observation, but I know from coaching youth sports that you can't coach aggressiveness or a nose for the ball. In my opinion that's what makes players. We'll see if Rhoads can do it.

 

[InAWord]

That's what this year is about. We get those 6 wins, and only a select few really remember the 3 win season. If we don't, plenty of people remember, and things seem more tenuous, because it won't look (to many) like things are improving. We really need that perception of a program moving forward.

Losing the way we did last year was no 'fluke.' We were an awful team with awful coaching. Blum mentions there's more excitement this year being around the team. I am sure that last year's team felt the same way before the UNI game. Losing the to NDSU could have the same effect this year. I have season tickets, but this might be the last year for awhile unless things improve.

Is it basketball season yet?

 

[NickTheGreat]

Iowa State did not get a single first down on 49 percent of their possessions in 2013

WHAT?!?! I knew it was a bad offense but . . . :shocked:

 

[KnappShack]

Blum I wouldn't necessarily blame yourself alone for the horse taking off. There are a number of things that could have lead to this. This may be a little late for Blum, but this is a PSA for those about to or want to ride horses. What you need to know about horses: 1. Horses are not bright animals 2. Don't ever stand directly behind a horse. 3. Horses can be spooked / startled very easily and take off without warning. 4. If a horses ear are pointed back, towards it rear legs, he horse is not happy. 5. Inquire as to how long the horse has been "broken in" aka how long has it been used to people riding it.

#3. On the Pacific Crest Trail in the Ansel Adams wilderness. Horse got spooked for a second and I quickly realized that I was only going to stay on that horse as long as he wanted me up there

It would've been a beautiful place to die, but I'd like to postpone my demise a few decades

 

[Wesley]

Awesome read, as usual. The 3-and-out stat is simply mind-boggling for a BCS level program, and highlights the inept nature of everything related to our offense. That kind of lack of productivity goes WAY beyond injuries and attitudes. Our offense was in a vegetative state with terminal cancer, had driven off a cliff, was an Amtrak trainwreck - pick your metaphor. Simply inexcusable. We had a sense for how bad things were, but that's really a key to pinpointing the problems we had offensively and how that was making life very difficult for a pretty undermanned defense which needed the offense's help for once.

I can relate to Blum on the horses. I'm someone, who for a long time, put horses in the "big and scary" category of creatures. I attribute it to a time when I was 5 or 6 years old and it was a "feed the horse a sugar cube" thing at the farm moment. Anyway, that horse nipped my hand a little with its teeth which looked the size of bricks. It's been hard but this had reduced quite a lot over the years. As I've gotten older, I've some to understand and feel for these creatures more and more, particularly, since I've been told I somewhat resemble these fine animals - their hind quarters specifically.

Everyone in the stadium could see the big pile of three and outs. Sometimes it was in double digits. The playcalling completely sucked.

 

[ahaselhu]

Everyone in the stadium could see the big pile of three and outs. Sometimes it was in double digits. The playcalling completely sucked.

I'm still not certain how much of that can be put on playcalling. We didn't have an overabundance of skill position talent last year (and still don't this year, really), and I would think the OL injuries severely limited what the offense could do.

Still, we certainly have a better OC this year. I'm optimistic that well see a very positive difference that a healthy line, new offensive coaching staff, and a few additional playmakers has on the offense.

 

[boyd]

Hey tone it down a little no need to insult horses like that!

Years ago a neighbor had a horse in a pen about a block from me. I gave the horse an apple almost ever day. When it saw me coming it would run to the fence, slide to a stop and snatch that apple out of my hand with one bite. One day I was all out of apples; so I grabbed a tomato. Truly thought the horse would like it. It saw me coming and ran and slid up to the fence. Biting the tomato with one big bite. He started snorting and spiting foaming at the mouth and glaring at me, shaking his head, throwing a fit. Ever after that when I brought an apple, he would come over slowly, sniff it, lick it, then finely take a small bite then consume it. That horse never again trusted me in spite of feeding him hundreds of apples.

 

[norcalcy]

Losing the way we did last year was no 'fluke.' We were an awful team with awful coaching. Blum mentions there's more excitement this year being around the team. I am sure that last year's team felt the same way before the UNI game. Losing the to NDSU could have the same effect this year. I have season tickets, but this might be the last year for awhile unless things improve.

Is it basketball season yet?

I will admit that it was disturbing that the program veered off course so badly last year. CPR takes part of the blame for that with hiring decisions, especially on the offensive staff. Hopefully, simple bad luck accounts for the rest of that disaster.

The true test of CPR's long term plan comes this season. The athletes he has recruited into the program have to start showing up. If we get dominated again this year, it will reveal a lot. Ditto for coaching. If good hires were made, it will show up in performance on the field. Count me in the camp that says the offense can't be any worse than last year. Blum's 3 and out stat is just flat out disgusting.

I think the Big XII is down this year and that helps us too.

 

[yler4cy]

Losing the way we did last year was no 'fluke.' We were an awful team with awful coaching. Blum mentions there's more excitement this year being around the team. I am sure that last year's team felt the same way before the UNI game. Losing the to NDSU could have the same effect this year. I have season tickets, but this might be the last year for awhile unless things improve.

Is it basketball season yet?

Really? Did you just get season tickets when Rhoads took ISU to the first few bowl games?

Edit: Sorry I will add to the thread topic. Nice write up Blum. It is eye popping the stats that were put forth, but I look to a better year statistically this year. Hopefully that will lead to W's.

 

[khaal53]

This might be the most embarassing stat I've seen since I began following ISU many moons ago. I'll leave it to those with a broader knowledge of stats (Khaal and Blum) to prove me wrong. :smile:

Welp...in 2013 vs FBS opponents in the 1st quarter the ISU offense punted or turned it over on 82.5% of possessions (drives that ended in the first period). The FBS average was 58%.

 

[Me State]

What would the percentage of 3 and outs be if you take out the Kansas and West Virginia victories?

 

[Ciclone]

What would the percentage of 3 and outs be if you take out the Kansas and West Virginia victories?

110%

 

[brentblum]

What would the percentage of 3 and outs be if you take out the Kansas and West Virginia victories?

I may be a glutton for punishment, but I'm not willing to do that math.

 

[khaal53]

What would the percentage of 3 and outs be if you take out the Kansas and West Virginia victories?

Last season ISU had 64 (tied for 5th most in FBS) three and outs (I define it as 3 or less plays that ends with a punt or turnover) on 177 total possessions. That is 36.15% (11th highest in FBS).

If you remove WVU and KU:

ISU had 54 three and outs on 146 drives (36.99%).

 

[brentblum]

Last season ISU had 64 (tied for 5th most in FBS) three and outs (I define it as 3 or less plays that ends with a punt or turnover) on 177 total possessions. That is 36.15% (11th highest in FBS).

If you remove WVU and KU:

ISU had 54 three and outs on 146 drives (36.99%).

This "FD" stat from Football Outsiders is where I grabbed the 49 percent number. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2013

I am not entirely sure how they derive their numbers, but I believe they filter out end of game "garbage" drives, which would account for the disparity, since Iowa State had some of their offensive success late in games already decided.

 

[Wesley]

I am a wait and see this year. Too many first games we tank. We should be playing at home openers with a little more banshee flavor/effort. We are playing a team that is better than KU, so let's wait to see the game proceeds.

 

[Dandy]

Welp...in 2013 vs FBS opponents in the 1st quarter the ISU offense punted or turned it over on 82.5% of possessions (drives that ended in the first period). The FBS average was 58%.