Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities
- Thread starter Hacksaw
- Start date
Bam. This squared.
WE are the team that others should be worried about lining up with. Screw it, put us in a play in game so we can thug one more team out of the tournament. Of course a good seed helps but what is real difference in the Big XII between the 2nd and the 8th seed, not damn much.
Schedule the game and ball it. I am ready to just get to the tourney so we knock out some Big East and B1G teams.
I am done ranting, until the KSU game, maybe.
That's pretty cool but I don't understand how Iowa State can be favored to win in Manhattan when ISU is now 3-4 on the road in conference and Kansas State hasn't lost a conference game at home. Does the table not take into account home and away??? I predict the probability of an ISU win Saturday is 25-30 percent, and that winning at Baylor is certainly more likely than winning at K-State and not less likely, as the table would suggest.
Okie State is surely better than an even money bet to defeat Kansas. Kansas has played well on the road, and Okie State did go on a 7-game losing streak, but I would still expect Okie State to be favored on their home court.
Okie State is surely better than an even money bet to defeat Kansas. Kansas has played well on the road, and Okie State did go on a 7-game losing streak, but I would still expect Okie State to be favored on their home court.
We win out, Texas needs one loss. We lose one, they need to lose two. Texas holds the tie breaker over us, and we are currently tied.
Three games tough games to go. All three opponents playing for their tournament lives, with two on the road. Looking around at what other teams finish with, in the Big 12 and elsewhere, few face a tougher schedule (at the very least in terms of predicting).
Win all three, and it is a historically successful season. Even if we go 0-3 and end up 10-8 (22-8), it would be an incredibly successful season, especially the fact we were a lock by the end of mid-Feb.
Win all three, and it is a historically successful season. Even if we go 0-3 and end up 10-8 (22-8), it would be an incredibly successful season, especially the fact we were a lock by the end of mid-Feb.
Here is what I am thinking:
At this point the #2 seed is probably out of the picture since OU should expect to finish 12-6 and they have tiebreakers on us. So the major question here is, how can ISU land a 3 seed?
1) Win out. Obviously that comes first. The game at Baylor on Tuesday is big for landing the 3 seed, and then of course OSU at Hilton.
2) Kansas State loses one of their last two. Since their games are @ Oklahoma State and vs. Baylor, gotta think the game in Stillwater is the best chance for that.
It looks to me like these two things would pretty much secure a 3 seed for ISU. Finish 12-6, and hope KSU picks up a 7th conference loss.
To make things a little more interesting here, an OSU win over KU tonight would put them in the position to get the #6 seed. I do not want to play them two games in a row after beating them twice. KU winning tonight puts West Virginia on track for the #6 seed, so I'm pulling for the Jayhawks this evening.
Best case (realistic) scenario: #3 Iowa State faces #6 West Virginia, advances to face the 2/7 winner (Oklahoma/Baylor), and then makes it to the title game against Kansas/Kansas State/Oklahoma State (all of which would be on the other side of the bracket).
At this point the #2 seed is probably out of the picture since OU should expect to finish 12-6 and they have tiebreakers on us. So the major question here is, how can ISU land a 3 seed?
1) Win out. Obviously that comes first. The game at Baylor on Tuesday is big for landing the 3 seed, and then of course OSU at Hilton.
2) Kansas State loses one of their last two. Since their games are @ Oklahoma State and vs. Baylor, gotta think the game in Stillwater is the best chance for that.
It looks to me like these two things would pretty much secure a 3 seed for ISU. Finish 12-6, and hope KSU picks up a 7th conference loss.
To make things a little more interesting here, an OSU win over KU tonight would put them in the position to get the #6 seed. I do not want to play them two games in a row after beating them twice. KU winning tonight puts West Virginia on track for the #6 seed, so I'm pulling for the Jayhawks this evening.
Best case (realistic) scenario: #3 Iowa State faces #6 West Virginia, advances to face the 2/7 winner (Oklahoma/Baylor), and then makes it to the title game against Kansas/Kansas State/Oklahoma State (all of which would be on the other side of the bracket).
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I was just coming on here to post this exact same thing, so thanks for saving me the time to type it out. Let's just win out and hope OSU beats KSU. And that KU beats OSU tonight if you want WVU to be the 6 seed.
Agree,, that's why I'm saying it is almost impossible to land a 3 seed. Looks more like the 4/5.
To simplify the ideal, most likely outcome:
1) Kansas over Oklahoma State tonight
3) Oklahoma State over Kansas State on Monday
2) Iowa State over Baylor on Tuesday
4) Iowa State over Oklahoma State next Saturday
All of that together means ISU is #3 seed against (probably) West Virginia.
It is far from "almost impossible" but it does involve us winning our last two. In a 3-way tie OU/ISU/UT we get 2nd.
We do have the tie breaker over Texas in a 3 way tie with them and OU due to round robin record. So, as long as we win out and KSU loses 1, we are at least a 3 seed no matter what OU and TEX do.
