Love the guy to death but if coach mac was still in charge, that Incarnate Word game would scare the ever living sh!t out of me, especially if we had 5 wins going into it.
Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
Just looking at the odds (in my heart), we probably burn every couch in Morgantown, and end up winning the Texas state championship despite the loss to TCU. Most likely end up with a 9-3 record.
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Get up 10 early, have some weird call or play happen in the 2nd quarter, and let that affect the rest of the game. Rinse, repeat.
I remember one for the MBB Big 12 tournament where you could pick winners for remaining games and it would build the Big 12 tournament brackets based on your picks.
Massey's updated his numbers, so I'll update mine. Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
Texas: 79.2% (61.5% 1st, 17.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 67.5% (22.2% 1st, 45.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 19.1% (6.8% 1st, 12.2% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 16.0% (4.6% 1st, 11.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 12.3% (4.1% 1st, 8.2% 2nd)
TCU: 5.6% (0.7% 1st, 5.0% 2nd)
Baylor, Kansas, KSU, OSU: < 0.3%
And here are the Championship Game match-ups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:
Oklahoma/Texas: 50.9%
Texas/West Virginia: 11.4%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 8.2%
Texas/Texas Tech: 6.9%
Iowa St./Texas: 5.0%
TCU/Texas: 4.7%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 4.6%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 3.1%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 1.8%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.2%
And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record (assuming that Incarnate Word is a gimme -- and that it happens):
4-8: 0.1%
5-7: 1.2%
6-6: 9.9%
7-5: 31.7%
8-4: 41.8%
9-3: 15.3%
As always, anyone wants the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.
56% chance of winning at least 8 games.... **** me
By the way, the Oklahoma/TCU game this weekend? Zilch effect on Iowa State's championship chances either way. As in, the odds were the same for ISU within a tenth of a percent regardless of who wins. I know, I'm surprised too.
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Yes, MrEd's bracket generator. Comes in handy during the season. It's only set up for basketball. Would be cool to have a Standings Generator for football. (Maybe someone else has done that, I didn't search for it specifically).
Oh, one more thing -- Iowa State's chances of making the championship game by remaining losses:
no more losses: 78.3% chance
1 more loss: 9.9% chance
2 more losses: 0.1% chance
no more losses: 78.3% chance
1 more loss: 9.9% chance
2 more losses: 0.1% chance
D
Deleted member 8507
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If we play IW they have it pegged at 99.5%
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/iowa-state-cyclones/projections
Just out of curiosity, what are the odds that we beat both Texas and K-State this year? If that happens, CMC will have beaten every Big 12 team within the last two seasons, and I’m pretty sure ISU has never done that before.
Yea we need to win out...and have WV beat OU last game of year probably..TCU im not worried about bc they will lose more than 2 conf games...WV will lose another as well. If we win out the champ game will be between Tx/OU and ISU IMO.
Assuming ISU wins out -- a sure thing, right? -- here are the most likely championship games:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 41.7%
Iowa St./Texas: 22.1%
Oklahoma/Texas: 18.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 9.8%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 3.6%
TCU/Texas: 1.9%
Iowa St./TCU: 1.1%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 41.7%
Iowa St./Texas: 22.1%
Oklahoma/Texas: 18.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 9.8%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 3.6%
TCU/Texas: 1.9%
Iowa St./TCU: 1.1%
