2025 Investing
- Thread starter DurangoCy
- Start date
I've owned ASTS for a few weeks now and it's up 17% for me. This is the point where I put in a 10% trailing stop and it sells off after a bad day. Not this time, diamond hands!!!
I had some of that for awhile. Should have held on a little longer. Dammit.
Seems like some stocks are booming again today.
Your mortgage rates will stay stubbornly high. Mortgage rates follow the 10 ur treasury. Usually a spread around 1.75%. Right now that spread is higher. Without looking I'd say 2.5% right now.
Just looked and less than 18 months ago I put an offer in on discover for 85 one day. It dropped to around 85.20 and missed. Now it’s over 200. 20 freaking cents or so from a very good gain. Should have just bought at market.
Mortgage rates between 4-6% would generally indicate a healthy economy. If the 10yr stays around where it is now and early payoff risk subsides we will start to see mortgage rates come down with no change in the 10yr.
LT mortgage rates at 6% is a nice steady clip for the economy. 4% is low since that would be a low spread for lenders.
I'm wondering if Bessent is putting an upper bound on inflation expectations. The 10 yr and core CPI seems to have tracked fairly close over the last 10-15 years. In others words, the Treausury will tolerate some inflation but no more than roughly 5% over the short term.
Yeah rates too low means people relying on cash (retired, elderly, etc) are pinched pretty hard. I would guess the float is bigger too at lower absolute values, maybe there's a banker here who can comment.
We just all got so used to historically low rates for so long, its hard to remember what "normal range" really is.
I tried to buy Reddit at its opening price of $34.00 and couldn't get in line quick enough. Now at $215 10 months later...doh.
In theory, with nothing else happening, mortgage rates can come down about 70 bps just by reducing the current built in risk premium. This would be the upper range of your mortgage rate scenario. Depending on several factors, the current 30 yr mortgage is between 6.5% and 7%.
That was my first mortgage rate way back. Yuck. But still better than some further back. I hope I dont have to get another mortgage for a looooong time. No thanks.
Do you believe in this stock long term? Some of the stuff I like now but cant picture long term, I will take profit at 25% up. Its really about what your personal strategy is. Satellite tech is interesting lately. Buffett recently acquired more SiriusXM, which looks weird, but he saw something there. My hope is that cellular fades with its limitations and satellite with its far reach takes on more services.
This is more of a gamble. It only makes up .25% of my portfolio. I usually keep less than 1% of my portfolio in things like this to play around with
Always made more money by “sitting” than I did by ”trading”.
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