2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

qwerty

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Pretty similar to yours but I would make it strictly a North/South split:

North: ISU, KSU, KU, CU, WVU, Cincy, BYU, Utah
South: AZ, ASU, Tech, TCU, Baylor, Hou, Ok St, UCF

North would be strong this year but I could see it being balanced long term.
Cattle (S) & Hat (N), Brains (N) & Brawn (S), named divisions worked SO WELL for the B1G . . . .
 

cloneclone

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Interesting looking at the schedule matrix for this year. Only 1 game between the top 4 teams (BYU/ASU this week)
 

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Sigmapolis

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I'm really disappointed that pods haven't made their way back into this discussion

Eastern Pod = Cinci, UH, UCF, WVU

Old Big Eight Pod = CO, ISU, KU, KSU

Texas Tea Pod = Baylor, OSU, TCU, TTU

Western Pod = AZ, ASU, BYU, UT

3 games against your own pod
2 each against 2/4 teams in the other pods = 2 * 3 = 6

= 9 games

The schedules are still going to be unbalanced but less so.
 

Cyclonepride

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Eastern Pod = Cinci, UH, UCF, WVU

Old Big Eight Pod = CO, ISU, KU, KSU

Texas Tea Pod = Baylor, OSU, TCU, TTU

Western Pod = AZ, ASU, BYU, UT

3 games against your own pod
2 each against 2/4 teams in the other pods = 2 * 3 = 6

= 9 games

The schedules are still going to be unbalanced but less so.
I actually like that. To me, it does balance somewhat over the long term (at least you can count on a home and home with teams from every other pod over a 4 year span.

I still love the 10 team league though, playing everyone. This year feels weird, with so many teams that we don't play not even seeming like they're in the conference from a fan's perspective.
 
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Sigmapolis

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I actually like that. To me, it does balance somewhat over the long term (at least you can count on a home and home with teams from every other pod over a 4 year span.

I still love the 10 team league though, playing everyone. This year feels weird, with so many teams that we don't play not even seeming like they're in the conference from a fan's perspective.

These features would be additional bonuses.

As you said, one is guaranteed a road trip to every Big 12 school once in your four years.

It spreads out the travel better for the far eastern and far western schools. Putting Houston in the eastern pod works because it is one of the easier cities in the Big 12 to get to (up with Dallas).

I miss the eight- or ten-team league but this is the world we live in now.
 

syclonefan

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ISU still has a chance at the title no matter what happens with every other conference game as long as we beat Utah. If BYU and Colorado win, that puts ISU as a longshot to make it. If ISU, Colorado, and BYU win this weekend then there are four scenarios, only two of them getting us into the 'ship.

-BYU and Colorado win: we are out
-BYU wins and Colorado loses: we get left out
-Colorado wins and BYU loses: we are in
BYU and Colorado lose: we are in

Colorado gets Oklahoma State last game of the season. I don't see them losing to Oklahoma State. The pokes are horrible. BYU gets Houston at home. BYU would have to play really awful football to lose that one. Really hoping both Colorado and BYU lose outright. Hopefully BYU is mad shooketh after losing a home game to Kansas and loses to Arizona State and OSU.
If BYU wins and Colorado losses this week we are left out given all favorites win the final week except if WVU beats Texas Tech the final week (or OSU beats Tech this week.
 

goody2012

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Divisions of 8 teams each. For example, this year we only have 2 opponents in common with Utah's schedule (Houston and UCF). Almost an entirely different schedule. Divisions guarantee that you will have at least 6 opponents in common and play head to head if you are in the same division, making a much more fair and balanced schedule.
Divisions aren't even balanced when you play different crossovers. There's no good way to create a completely fair championship game matchup with this many teams.
 
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goody2012

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Let's go with two divisions of 8 that you play 7 conference games against, then 2 games from the other division that are "non-conference" games. Divisions are updated every year based on previous year's results.
 
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andybernard

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ISU still has a chance at the title no matter what happens with every other conference game as long as we beat Utah. If BYU and Colorado win, that puts ISU as a longshot to make it. If ISU, Colorado, and BYU win this weekend then there are four scenarios, only two of them getting us into the 'ship.

-BYU and Colorado win: we are out
-BYU wins and Colorado loses: we get left out
-Colorado wins and BYU loses: we are in
BYU and Colorado lose: we are in

Colorado gets Oklahoma State last game of the season. I don't see them losing to Oklahoma State. The pokes are horrible. BYU gets Houston at home. BYU would have to play really awful football to lose that one. Really hoping both Colorado and BYU lose outright. Hopefully BYU is mad shooketh after losing a home game to Kansas and loses to Arizona State and OSU.

If what you're saying is correct, then another way to put it...
If ISU, Colorado, and BYU win this weekend, then our title game hopes lie squarely on BYU (and us obviously) but Colorado's final weekend is meaningless to us.

If we win vs. K-State...
BYU wins, we are out.
BYU loses, we are in.
 

Clonehomer

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Let's go with two divisions of 8 that you play 7 conference games against, then 2 games from the other division that are "non-conference" games. Divisions are updated every year based on previous year's results.

Add some teams and get 4 pods of 5. Each year you combine pods to create 2 divisions. Division champs play in the CCG. Rotate the pod combinations every year.

You get to play each team every 3 years, can keep geographical rivalries within the pod, and you keep even schedules for determining the CCG contestants.
 

mred

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If what you're saying is correct, then another way to put it...
If ISU, Colorado, and BYU win this weekend, then our title game hopes lie squarely on BYU (and us obviously) but Colorado's final weekend is meaningless to us.

If we win vs. K-State...
BYU wins, we are out.
BYU loses, we are in.
This is correct.
 

JM4CY

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If ASU and KU win this weekend, what do we need the last weekend or do we control our own destiny?
 

CycloneJoe6

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If ASU and KU win this weekend, what do we need the last weekend or do we control our own destiny?
Not fully control but it would be very very likely we are in. It would take a Colorado and ASU win + BYU loss to keep us out
 

Dale

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@Dale If you get time would it be possible to see which remaining Big 12 games move the odds of Iowa State making the championship game the most. I'm particularly curious to see which of the games outside of the top 4 teams impact our odds the most.
Done:

Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 44.8% (0.0% to 44.8%)
Iowa St. over Utah: 40.3% (0.9% to 41.2%)
Kansas over Colorado: 15.3% (16.8% to 32.1%)
Houston over BYU: 8.9% (24.8% to 33.7%)
Arizona St over BYU: 8.7% (21.1% to 29.8%)
Oklahoma St. over Colorado: 8.2% (22.4% to 30.6%)
Arizona over Arizona St: 4.2% (23.8% to 28.0%)
Kansas St. over Cincinnati: 2.6% (23.5% to 26.1%)
Oklahoma St. over Texas Tech: 2.0% (24.5% to 26.5%)
West Virginia over Texas Tech: 2.0% (24.8% to 26.8%)
 

syclonefan

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Couldn’t fit all the teams on one screenshot but there still is a possibility of an 8-way tie of 6-3 teams for first place and Baylor and would play in the championship game. Obviously lots of things would have to happen for this scenario to work.
 

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werdnamanhill

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You can't have balanced schedules in a 16-team league with only 9 games. It isn't possible no matter how you try to arrange it. Concede that the schedules will always be unbalanced and give me divisions to cleans up this tie breaker atrocity.
Exactly how I feel. At least with divisions, the CCG participants are decided based on football games, not the combined average opponent win percentage in conference during games with rain and an easterly wind
 
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JM4CY

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Done:

Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 44.8% (0.0% to 44.8%)
Iowa St. over Utah: 40.3% (0.9% to 41.2%)
Kansas over Colorado: 15.3% (16.8% to 32.1%)
Houston over BYU: 8.9% (24.8% to 33.7%)
Arizona St over BYU: 8.7% (21.1% to 29.8%)
Oklahoma St. over Colorado: 8.2% (22.4% to 30.6%)
Arizona over Arizona St: 4.2% (23.8% to 28.0%)
Kansas St. over Cincinnati: 2.6% (23.5% to 26.1%)
Oklahoma St. over Texas Tech: 2.0% (24.5% to 26.5%)
West Virginia over Texas Tech: 2.0% (24.8% to 26.8%)
Can someone explain again to me why we want Tech to lose?
 

Clone95

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We could know we control our own destiny by the time our game starts on Saturday. Not sure that's a good thing.