2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
I'm getting pissed about choking that Tech game away again. 22 runs on 27 first down plays...
Fun fact, none of that matters without a zillion penalties and the turnovers. Sure, different play calling probably helps but even with that predictability - which killed us in the first half again last night -I'm getting pissed about choking that Tech game away again. 22 runs on 27 first down plays...
we still very easily could have / should have won that game. So while I do think the play calling is an issue at times on offense, in terms of being too conservative and predictable -
that game? That game gets won if the execution is simply at a C+ level instead of a D+ level or D, even with the play calling.
Arizona State is in surprisingly good shape. They host BYU and close with Arizona.
They win those two games, I assume they get in to the title game over BYU.
This conference is Colorado's to lose IMO.
What's going to be a tough to swallow is watching an Arizona State versus Colorado Title game Year 1. Puke.
I think we are going to look back at this year and see that Okie state and Utah were down.
KU had a ton of losses. WVU, TT, TCU, KState and Baylor were not terrible, but nothing like they are typically or could be. The surprise teams are BYU, Colorado and ASU, which we didn't even have to play.
We only played one ranked team all year which hasn't been ranked since we played them.
We basically were handed the keys to the College Football Playoff and (most likely) found a way to not even play for the conference title game.
I think missing out on an unreal opportunity is deep down what everyone is disappointed in. we are all happy with the team being 8-2, but this opportunity was aligned so perfectly that I am not sure it will ever happen again.
The way we are currently playing/injured, I think we are going to finish 1-1/0-2 anyway.
and the conference is so jammed in the middle, if we lose our last two we would end up in 6-10th place.
That is tough to think about
I am just hoping to beat Utah and K-state and get to 10 wins,
and root against BYU and Colorado and see what happens.
They pretty much control their own destiny. I think, anyway. Getting BYU at home is a win in itself.
I have a strong feeling KU will beat Colorado. They’re playing well.
Are we going to get an ASU/ISU title game? It could happen.
Alright...so for those in the know...what needs to take place (in addition to us winning out) to make the conference championship game?
At the very least, I assume we are huge Jayhawk fans next weekend against Colorado.
Do we root for BYU or Arizona State in that BYU @ Arizona State game?
If Iowa State, Colorado, BYU and Arizona State all end up with two losses, which two teams get the tie breakers?
Lets say: 1.) Colorado wins out. 2.) BYU loses @ASU and 3.) ASU loses @Arizona. Colorado is in but who gets tie breaker between BYU and Iowa State?
So many scenarios.
At the very least, I assume we are huge Jayhawk fans next weekend against Colorado.
Do we root for BYU or Arizona State in that BYU @ Arizona State game?
If Iowa State, Colorado, BYU and Arizona State all end up with two losses, which two teams get the tie breakers?
Lets say: 1.) Colorado wins out. 2.) BYU loses @ASU and 3.) ASU loses @Arizona. Colorado is in but who gets tie breaker between BYU and Iowa State?
So many scenarios.
I had to bet, I’d say ASU Colorado. I don’t think Colorado loses again. And apparently if ASU has the tiebreaker against us then they get in.
Assuming MRED’s calculator is correct, I don’t think so. It’s all about CU losing to KU and ISU winning out. Then, all ASU and BYU matter is who we would play.
But, I’d much prefer to play BYU than ASU. ASU’s RB would hurt us in ways that we may never recover from as a fanbase.
Essentially Kansas winning is what we need. BYU simply losing again, I don't know that it helps us unless they lose out and they win out because they'd have beaten K-State as well as we had, etc... so I'm not sure there. If Kansas doesn't beat Colorado... we need BYU to lose out basically, unless the tie breaker becomes really weird
Update after a weird week:
BYU: 80.8% (58.7% 1st, 22.0% 2nd)
Colorado: 57.5% (15.0% 1st, 42.6% 2nd)
Arizona St: 28.3% (19.4% 1st, 8.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 24.5% (6.7% 1st, 17.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 4.4% (0.1% 1st, 4.3% 2nd)
Baylor: 3.3% (0.1% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
TCU: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
BYU/Colorado: 45.9%
BYU/Iowa St.: 14.5%
Arizona St/BYU: 13.0%
Arizona St/Colorado: 8.0%
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 6.9%
BYU/Kansas St.: 3.8%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 3.0%
Baylor/BYU: 2.8%
ISU record chances:
8-4: 16.6%
9-3: 48.4%
10-2: 35.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 0.4%
10-2: 69.3%
BYU: 80.8% (58.7% 1st, 22.0% 2nd)
Colorado: 57.5% (15.0% 1st, 42.6% 2nd)
Arizona St: 28.3% (19.4% 1st, 8.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 24.5% (6.7% 1st, 17.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 4.4% (0.1% 1st, 4.3% 2nd)
Baylor: 3.3% (0.1% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
TCU: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
BYU/Colorado: 45.9%
BYU/Iowa St.: 14.5%
Arizona St/BYU: 13.0%
Arizona St/Colorado: 8.0%
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 6.9%
BYU/Kansas St.: 3.8%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 3.0%
Baylor/BYU: 2.8%
ISU record chances:
8-4: 16.6%
9-3: 48.4%
10-2: 35.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 0.4%
10-2: 69.3%
The way it looks to me is that ASU and Colorado both need to lose with ISU winning out to make the Championship game.
EDIT: Unfortunately, ASU is undefeated at home, where they play BYU. Their away game is Arizona and their away record is 3-2. Colorado plays at Kansas. It would *almost* be worth it to go down to Arrowhead to cheer against the Buffs, except I have a physical aversion to rooting for Kansas. Just thinking about it makes me nauseous.
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If ASU beats BYU and loses to UA, that’s another route besides CU losing. But that’s a really long shot IMO.
No. Since ASU is playing BYU, that would knock one of those teams under us if CU wins. If CU loses, we’d play the winner of that game.
Correct, we had the easiest schedule in history and wasted it.Arizona State is in surprisingly good shape. They host BYU and close with Arizona.
They win those two games, I assume they get in to the title game over BYU.
This conference is Colorado's to lose IMO.
What's going to be a tough to swallow is watching an Arizona State versus Colorado Title game Year 1. Puke.
I think we are going to look back at this year and see that Okie state and Utah were down.
KU had a ton of losses. WVU, TT, TCU, KState and Baylor were not terrible, but nothing like they are typically or could be. The surprise teams are BYU, Colorado and ASU, which we didn't even have to play.
We only played one ranked team all year which hasn't been ranked since we played them.
We basically were handed the keys to the College Football Playoff and (most likely) found a way to not even play for the conference title game.
I think missing out on an unreal opportunity is deep down what everyone is disappointed in. we are all happy with the team being 8-2, but this opportunity was aligned so perfectly that I am not sure it will ever happen again.
The way we are currently playing/injured, I think we are going to finish 1-1/0-2 anyway.
and the conference is so jammed in the middle, if we lose our last two we would end up in 6-10th place.
That is tough to think about
I am just hoping to beat Utah and K-state and get to 10 wins,
and root against BYU and Colorado and see what happens.
Yep, it was a really bad loss.I'm getting pissed about choking that Tech game away again. 22 runs on 27 first down plays...
So in a three way, we have the tiebreak for sure with ASU? Wait… it’d be a 4 way. My god, can someone smarter than me lay the scenarios out in a succinct way please?
mred has OSU beating Tech next week which I doubt will happen. If Tech wins that game it will hurt us in tie breakers. I think we need ASU to beat BYU next weekend, as well as Kansas beating Colorado.
How? BYU would only have 2 conference losses, as do we? We'd have both beaten Utah and K-State, UCF and West Virginia. etc... so the tie breaker would have to get really weird for us to leap frog a team with the exact same resume.
