Very curious to see the updated @Dale projections. Did not expect to see ISU and KSU lose tonight. I’m not sure which one had a bigger impact.
2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
Gonna be BYU vs Colorado is my prediction
It’s been cute watching you all realize the big 12 is a one bid league.
Correct. Yes both BYU and us could have gotten there at 12-0, which likely would get us both in, but the percentages and odds of both teams going unbeaten was near zero. I still think BYU lays an egg somewhere down the stretch.
The goal of a Big 12 title is still right where it was to start the day. We’ve just lost the margin for error. But it’s not going to matter if we don’t pick up our play the rest of the way. Today was a game we had no business losing, and I actually thought we would lose next week to Kansas. So let’s swap it and beat the beakers.
Updated odds to make the Big 12 Championship:
BYU: 81.9% (54.0% 1st, 28.0% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 59.0% (20.5% 1st, 38.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 40.9% (22.1% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Colorado: 6.2% (1.2% 1st, 5.1% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 6.1% (1.1% 1st, 5.0% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 1.7% (0.5% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Arizona St: 1.6% (0.6% 1st, 0.9% 2nd)
West Virginia: 1.0% (0.1% 1st, 0.9% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.7% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Utah: 0.4% (0.0% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
TCU: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Houston: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
everyone else: nope
Essentially the winner of ISU/KSU gets the second spot if they both win out. ISU's favored by Massey in that game...but they are more likely to lose one of their three games before that then KSU is to lose one of their two prior games, hence KSU with better odds. Like last week, Colorado's odds are low because because Massey doesn't have them as the favorite in any of their last four games...but even if they win out, they still fall behind a 8-1 ISU in almost all scenarios.
Most likely championship games:
BYU/Kansas St.: 44.8%
BYU/Iowa St.: 28.9%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 8.6%
BYU/Texas Tech: 3.5%
BYU/Colorado: 2.5%
Colorado/Kansas St.: 2.4%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 1.3%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 1.2%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 1.2%
BYU/Cincinnati: 1.0%
ISU record chances:
7-5: 1.3%
8-4: 11.2%
9-3: 32.1%
10-2: 38.7%
11-1: 16.8%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 3.6%
10-2: 59.5%
11-1: 99.8%
That 11-1 other 0.2%: ISU wins out, Colorado wins out, and somehow TT finishes with more conference wins than KSU.
BYU: 81.9% (54.0% 1st, 28.0% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 59.0% (20.5% 1st, 38.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 40.9% (22.1% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Colorado: 6.2% (1.2% 1st, 5.1% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 6.1% (1.1% 1st, 5.0% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 1.7% (0.5% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Arizona St: 1.6% (0.6% 1st, 0.9% 2nd)
West Virginia: 1.0% (0.1% 1st, 0.9% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.7% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Utah: 0.4% (0.0% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
TCU: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Houston: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
everyone else: nope
Essentially the winner of ISU/KSU gets the second spot if they both win out. ISU's favored by Massey in that game...but they are more likely to lose one of their three games before that then KSU is to lose one of their two prior games, hence KSU with better odds. Like last week, Colorado's odds are low because because Massey doesn't have them as the favorite in any of their last four games...but even if they win out, they still fall behind a 8-1 ISU in almost all scenarios.
Most likely championship games:
BYU/Kansas St.: 44.8%
BYU/Iowa St.: 28.9%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 8.6%
BYU/Texas Tech: 3.5%
BYU/Colorado: 2.5%
Colorado/Kansas St.: 2.4%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 1.3%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 1.2%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 1.2%
BYU/Cincinnati: 1.0%
ISU record chances:
7-5: 1.3%
8-4: 11.2%
9-3: 32.1%
10-2: 38.7%
11-1: 16.8%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 3.6%
10-2: 59.5%
11-1: 99.8%
That 11-1 other 0.2%: ISU wins out, Colorado wins out, and somehow TT finishes with more conference wins than KSU.
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That 59.5 percent chance at still being in the championship with another loss is fascinating. Hard to envision what that would look like with a logjam of 2 loss teams
Best part of Sunday is reading the updated @Dale projections. And it’s even more fun when ISU is in play for the championship game
In the scenario where ISU loses to someone else, then beats KSU, as long as Colorado loses at least one along the way (pretty likely), ISU's situation would be looking pretty good. That's why the odds are higher than might be expected.
Our power rating is artificially inflated and the resulting chances we get a double digit win total are overstated. This does not feel like the year unfortunately
Remaining games that make the largest difference to ISU's odds -- this week's with an asterisk. Yes, you're reading that right: ISU has only a ~6% chance if you spot KSU a victory over the Cyclones.
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 64.5% (5.6% to 70.1%)
Iowa St. over Cincinnati: 28.9% (17.9% to 46.8%)
* Iowa St. over Kansas: 26.7% (24.8% to 51.5%)
Iowa St. over Utah: 24.8% (26.2% to 51.0%)
Houston over BYU: 8.6% (40.2% to 48.8%)
Kansas over BYU: 7.4% (39.0% to 46.4%)
* Utah over BYU: 6.6% (37.8% to 44.4%)
Kansas over Colorado: 6.4% (37.4% to 43.8%)
Utah over Colorado: 5.6% (38.2% to 43.8%)
Arizona St over BYU: 5.0% (39.4% to 44.4%)
Oklahoma St. over Texas Tech: 4.8% (38.6% to 43.4%)
Cincinnati over Kansas St.: 4.2% (40.3% to 44.5%)
Oklahoma St. over Colorado: 4.2% (39.2% to 43.4%)
West Virginia over Texas Tech: 4.2% (39.3% to 43.5%)
Arizona St over Kansas St.: 3.6% (40.8% to 44.4%)
* Texas Tech over Colorado: 1.8% (40.5% to 42.3%)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 64.5% (5.6% to 70.1%)
Iowa St. over Cincinnati: 28.9% (17.9% to 46.8%)
* Iowa St. over Kansas: 26.7% (24.8% to 51.5%)
Iowa St. over Utah: 24.8% (26.2% to 51.0%)
Houston over BYU: 8.6% (40.2% to 48.8%)
Kansas over BYU: 7.4% (39.0% to 46.4%)
* Utah over BYU: 6.6% (37.8% to 44.4%)
Kansas over Colorado: 6.4% (37.4% to 43.8%)
Utah over Colorado: 5.6% (38.2% to 43.8%)
Arizona St over BYU: 5.0% (39.4% to 44.4%)
Oklahoma St. over Texas Tech: 4.8% (38.6% to 43.4%)
Cincinnati over Kansas St.: 4.2% (40.3% to 44.5%)
Oklahoma St. over Colorado: 4.2% (39.2% to 43.4%)
West Virginia over Texas Tech: 4.2% (39.3% to 43.5%)
Arizona St over Kansas St.: 3.6% (40.8% to 44.4%)
* Texas Tech over Colorado: 1.8% (40.5% to 42.3%)
K State has their bye this week, so they get to stew on their loss for two weeks . . . . that's a shame.
Update that no one's looking forward to:
BYU: 96.8% (87.4% 1st, 9.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 40.0% (3.7% 1st, 36.4% 2nd)
Colorado: 27.7% (2.7% 1st, 25.0% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 21.3% (4.3% 1st, 17.0% 2nd)
West Virginia: 6.6% (0.2% 1st, 6.4% 2nd)
Arizona St: 3.7% (1.7% 1st, 2.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 2.1% (0.0% 1st, 2.0% 2nd)
TCU: 0.7% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Houston: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
everyone else: none
Massey is still not a real believer in Colorado, having their last three games as essentially tossups -- hence being behind KSU even though they're a game ahead of them. (And KSU has two games where they're 80%+ favorites before ISU.
Most likely championship game matchups:
BYU/Kansas St.: 38.7%
BYU/Colorado: 25.9%
BYU/Iowa St.: 19.8%
BYU/West Virginia: 6.2%
Arizona St/BYU: 2.8%
Baylor/BYU: 1.9%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 0.7%
ISU record chances:
7-5: 4.4%
8-4: 27.2%
9-3: 45.5%
10-2: 22.9%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 3.8%
10-2: 85.6%
ISU makes the game in most situations where they win out and Colorado loses at least one of the next two.
BYU: 96.8% (87.4% 1st, 9.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 40.0% (3.7% 1st, 36.4% 2nd)
Colorado: 27.7% (2.7% 1st, 25.0% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 21.3% (4.3% 1st, 17.0% 2nd)
West Virginia: 6.6% (0.2% 1st, 6.4% 2nd)
Arizona St: 3.7% (1.7% 1st, 2.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 2.1% (0.0% 1st, 2.0% 2nd)
TCU: 0.7% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.5% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Houston: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
everyone else: none
Massey is still not a real believer in Colorado, having their last three games as essentially tossups -- hence being behind KSU even though they're a game ahead of them. (And KSU has two games where they're 80%+ favorites before ISU.
Most likely championship game matchups:
BYU/Kansas St.: 38.7%
BYU/Colorado: 25.9%
BYU/Iowa St.: 19.8%
BYU/West Virginia: 6.2%
Arizona St/BYU: 2.8%
Baylor/BYU: 1.9%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 0.7%
ISU record chances:
7-5: 4.4%
8-4: 27.2%
9-3: 45.5%
10-2: 22.9%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 3.8%
10-2: 85.6%
ISU makes the game in most situations where they win out and Colorado loses at least one of the next two.
Yeah, we now need CU to lose 1 and us to win out in order to make it.
There are other possibilities, but this is probably the most straightforward.
