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2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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Hello there.

I know this thread is normally one started in the fall a few weeks before the basketball season begins, but with so much about the roster already changing and changes coming through portal season, I thought I would start it now and lean on the Bart Torvik ("BT") preseason projections @JStanz51 featured here.

The "vanilla" BT projections right now have Iowa State as the #54 team in the country next year --

1680019537887.png

I think you all would notice that roster is incomplete and thus incorrect -- Robert Jones is confirmed to be returning for his fifth season, I think CW's article about Tre King makes it clear he is going to be back for another season, and while we have not heard any official word, I think the rumor is Hason Ward will return.

So adding those three back gives you --

1680019633270.png

Iowa State is now projected as the #30 team in the country. The updated offensive efficiency would be tied for #59 in the country (with the College of Charleston) and the defense would be #14 in the country (slightly behind San Diego State and ahead of Arkansas). Last year was #30 overall, #122 offense, and #7 defense.

As I have mentioned before, the BT model for offense depends on the offensive rating of the players on the roster while the defense is projected as a "steady state" year-to-year. So the model thinks adding Omaha, Milan, and Williams will improve the offense while the defense is more about team culture and coaching.

Here are the teams around #30 in the country from this season. Iowa State being #30 again is a funny coincidence. All of them made the tournament save mid-major North Texas in the NIT --

1680019887005.png

I will update this periodically if and when there is further action in the transfer portal. The team clearly needs more backcourt depth. That being said, assuming TJ and Kyle Green can coach the same fire on defense into them, the roster next year as it is right now already has the potential to be very competitive.

Much is going to depend on Omaha and Milan being "hits" pretty quickly and Williams returning to form after the injury. Lipsey is going to need to be a dude with that many minutes and that usage, too.
 
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Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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jereseib said:
Jones shouldn't be playing 63% of the minutes, that's a disaster.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't read too much into that. BT is just doing its best to estimate that.

Still time for some post depth to come in the portal and/or TJ could play athletic "4" men like King and Omaha at the "5" assuming they go small with Lipsey, Williams, and some portal guards.
 
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isutrevman

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Sigmapolis said:
Hello there.

I know this thread is normally one started in the fall a few weeks before the basketball season begins, but with so much about the roster already changing and changes coming through portal season, I thought I would start it now and lean on the Bart Torvik ("BT") preseason projections @JStanz51 featured here.

The "vanilla" BT projections right now have Iowa State as the #54 team in the country next year --

View attachment 111402

I think you all would notice that roster is incomplete and thus incorrect -- Robert Jones is confirmed to be returning for his fifth season, I think CW's article about Tre King makes it clear he is going to be back for another season, and while we have not heard any official word, I think the rumor is Hason Ward will return.

So adding those three back gives you --

View attachment 111403

Iowa State is now projected as the #30 team in the country. The updated offensive efficiency would be tied for #59 in the country (with the College of Charleston) and the defense would be #14 in the country (slightly behind San Diego State and ahead of Arkansas). Last year was #30 overall, #122 offense, and #7 defense.

As I have mentioned before, the BT model for offense depends on the offensive rating of the players on the roster while the defense is projected as a "steady state" year-to-year. So the model thinks adding Omaha, Milan, and Williams will improve the offense while the defense is more about team culture and coaching.

Here are the teams around #30 in the country from this season. Iowa State being #30 again is a funny coincidence. All of them made the tournament save mid-major North Texas in the NIT --

View attachment 111404

I will update this periodically if and when there is further action in the transfer portal. The team clearly needs more backcourt depth. That being said, assuming TJ and Kyle Green can coach the same fire on defense into them, the roster next year as it is right now already has the potential to be very competitive.

Much is going to depend on Omaha and Milan being "hits" pretty quickly and Williams returning to form after the injury. Lipsey is going to need to be a dude with that many minutes and that usage, too.
Click to expand...
#30 is a lot higher than I would have thought before adding any transfers. That's very promising.
 
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MJ271

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@Sigmapolis Do you know anything about how Barttorvik estimates offensive rating and performance for incoming freshmen? I assume it uses recruiting rankings. But it doesn't capture anything about an incoming freshman's play style or specific skillset, right?
 
Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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MJ271 said:
@Sigmapolis Do you know anything about how Barttorvik estimates offensive rating and performance for incoming freshmen? I assume it uses recruiting rankings. But it doesn't capture anything about an incoming freshman's play style or specific skillset, right?
Click to expand...

The model bases incoming freshman on their recruiting rankings and the historical production of players at similar rankings in previous seasons. Therefore, the model likes Omaha and Milan to contribute on offense because they're highly-ranked recruits and such recruits tend to do that historically.

It does not try to make any adjustments for style of play -- e.g., Omaha might be the best defender in his class but isn't as polished on offense. I don't think that matters too much to the overall projections, though. Assume Omaha is overrated on offense above and underrated on defense. Assuming you "give" one point per 100 on offense and "get" one point per 100 on defense because of this, then the net rating and thus the ranking for Iowa State remains unchanged. Same for Milan being one of the best pure scorers and shooters in his class but probably not going to be a plus defender in the Big 12 as a freshman (if ever, sort of like Georges).

So no, it doesn't make that adjustment, but I don't think it matters too much assuming those guys "hit" and are collectively productive as their recruiting ratings suggest on both ends of the floor.
 
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Gunnerclone

Gunnerclone

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madguy30 said:
Is there a similar thing for football?

The Oline and WRs are going to be LIT next season again and I can't wait to read all about it.
Click to expand...

Trust me guys, you’ve never seen an Oline transformation like this one; they are bigger and heavier, but lighter. They are road grading plodders yet faster and more nimble. They are more aggressive and mean while also being the best tacticians that we’ve ever seen in this line. They are lifting more weight and pushing out more reps while incorporating ballet and martial arts in to their training.
 
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madguy30

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Gunnerclone said:
Trust me guys, you’ve never seen an Oline transformation like this one; they are bigger and heavier, but lighter. They are road grading plodders yet faster and more nimble. They are more aggressive and mean while also being the best tacticians that we’ve ever seen in this line. They are lifting more weight and pushing out more reps while incorporating ballet and martial arts in to their training.
Click to expand...

LOADED at WR.

Just wait for the hype videos from two a days.
 
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Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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Gunnerclone said:
Trust me guys, you’ve never seen an Oline transformation like this one; they are bigger and heavier, but lighter. They are road grading plodders yet faster and more nimble. They are more aggressive and mean while also being the best tacticians that we’ve ever seen in this line. They are lifting more weight and pushing out more reps while incorporating ballet and martial arts in to their training.
Click to expand...

People are telling me this is the greatest O-Line they've ever seen. Believe me. The defense is like, "Stop, we can't take it any more, you're making the O-Line great again too fast!" They're huge!
 
MeowingCows

MeowingCows

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Sigmapolis said:
MOLGA

Didn't take long for CF's legendary disregard for thread-topic discipline to break down, did it?
Click to expand...
How far back does "again" imply here? I was more thinking of 'for the first time', but MOLGFTFT doesn't quite roll off as nice.
 
Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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Gunnerclone said:
After I saw the BRE take in post 2 I knew I needed to avert this thread from its fate as a fatalistic emo pre-bitchfest for a season that doesn’t start for 8 months.
Click to expand...

Those are sage words.

It is definitely the case a guy with this for his Twitter profile picture --

1680027844992.png

Knows exactly down to the second practically how much Rob Jones is going to play next season already.
 
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