***2022 Minnesota Vikings***

Steve

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The more I read, the more I like this draft.

If you don't like trading within the division, then I've got nothing for you. It seems like rejecting a trade proposal from a division team that actually helps your own team is just idiotic.

That said, by all accounts, it sounds like Detroit would have given up more for #12, so that was a mistake. No idea how the negotiations went, but it could have been better. If all it was was a first round pick next year instead of #34, then I don't mind it honestly.

Cine sounds like he will be a stud. Love hearing that all the other Georgia players picked him as the 1 guy they'd like to play with. He will either star this year, or play a lot as the 3rd safety when they go with a 3 high safety defense. Long term, he's a backfill for Harrison Smith when they let him go. I haven't heard this for sure, but it sounds like they may have had him higher than Hamilton on their draft board. They did have him ranked in the teens, so they got great value there.

Booth sounds like a great CB pickup and just what they need. I ready at least one place that had him ranked higher than Sauce and Stingley. Could start this year (beating out Dantzler).

Ed Ingram seemed like a reach and has major red flags, but it sounds like the Vikings did their diligence. I'll assume he's a changed person and the Vikings didn't draft a monster. On the football side, he still seemed like a reach, but it sounds like the Vikings OL draft board was different than the consensus. Everyone needs to remember that certain OL fit different schemes better than others (gap versus zone). It also sounds like this staff's zone blocking scheme is different than the old staff's zone blocking scheme so much that their scouts are looking for different attributes in their offensive line. Honestly, with the red flags, I almost feel better about the reach here. It would have been far easier to just let Ingram go and get the next guy on the board, so they must have felt really strongly about his talent and fit. Jesse Davis is no Randall McDaniel, so Ingram would have every opportunity to win a starting spot if he's up to the task.

I love the Asamoah pick. He seems like a great fit as a 3-4 ILB. Sideline to sideline speed and good in coverage. He's probably not beating Hicks for a starting spot, but he will play plenty. Also could be a long term guy to replace Hendricks if they get rid of him.

Evans is a nice depth piece at CB. Seems like the consensus had him ranked lower, but the Vikings must have felt pretty strongly about he fit in their scheme too.

Rounds 5-7 are a crapshoot, so its not really fair to weigh picks in that round at all. I will say that drafting a RB is interesting. Most are saying they will let Mattison go next year, but could they trade Dalvin Cook and go the cheaper salary cap route freeing up space for other needs?
Good draft evaluation summary. Getting good value for a RB selection makes sense. It is a plan ahead move as I don't expect either Cook or Mattison to be on the roster next year due to cap management. My selfish concern is that I hope that Chandler doesn't take playing time and/or a roster spot away from Kene as there is some overlap in their skill sets.
 

clone52

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Because I'm a masochist, I went back and looked at all of the trades in the Spielman days. I only looked at trades that involved draft picks. Picks in a future draft were knocked down 1 round (-32 selections). I treated Rounds 3-4 as picks 64-140 (140 was a good average between 2012 and 2022).


That was a good link analyzing draft picks per round based on whether they signed a contract extension. Picks fell into 4 categories.
Round 1 - 80%
Round 2 - 65%
Round 3-4 - 40-48%
Round 5-7 - 17-28%

Basically, Round 1 and Round 2 are good. Rounds 3-4 are flip a coin. Round 5-7 is worse than that.

KAM in 1 draft gained 1 2nd round pick and 1 Round 5-7 pick. He made 6 trades, 2 were trade ups and 4 were trade downs.

Spielman - 2012-2021
In his first 3 years, Spielman traded back into the first round 3 times and they were all successful. Harrison Smith, Cordarelle Patterson and Teddy Bridgewater. After 2014, he never traded into the 4th round.

Over 10 seasons, Spielman traded down 27 times and traded up 10 times. His first 3 years were a 5/3 ratio. After that it was 22 times down and 7 times up.

Overall, he gained 3 first round picks.
He lost 3 second round picks.
He gained 4 picks in round 3-4 (prior to 2020, he had lost a net of 2 picks round 3-4 picks)
He gained 14 picks in rounds 5-7 (prior to 2021, he had gained a net of 18 round 5-7 picks)

2017 was special with a couple early trade ups, then 6 trade downs where he turned picks 86 and 199 into picks 109, 170, 180, 201, 219, 220, 245
2019 was another fun one where he essentially traded picks 81 and 209 for picks 102, 114, 159, 191, 193, 217

Spielman was pretty conservative in Rounds 1-2. He was really good at dropping a small number of picks, getting his guy (even if he sometimes sucked at picking that guy) and picking up a bunch of low picks. In Rounds 3-7, it really seemed like he preferred to stockpile picks rather than try to get more Round 3-4 picks. It wasn't until 2020 that he seemed to realize he needed those Round 3-4 guys.

In just 1 draft, which is not enough time for a trend, KAM seems to be nothing like Spielman.

Spielman never traded back as far as KAM did from #12. That was an outlier for sure.
KAM traded 34 for 53 and 59. Spielman once gave up 52, 83, 102, 228 for pick 29. He also once gave up 40 and 108 for pick 32
 
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PSYclone22

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Because I'm a masochist, I went back and looked at all of the trades in the Spielman days. I only looked at trades that involved draft picks. Picks in a future draft were knocked down 1 round (-32 selections). I treated Rounds 3-4 as picks 64-140 (140 was a good average between 2012 and 2022).


That was a good link analyzing draft picks per round based on whether they signed a contract extension. Picks fell into 4 categories.
Round 1 - 80%
Round 2 - 65%
Round 3-4 - 40-48%
Round 5-7 - 17-28%

Basically, Round 1 and Round 2 are good. Rounds 3-4 are flip a coin. Round 5-7 is worse than that.

KAM in 1 draft gained 1 2nd round pick and 1 Round 5-7 pick. He made 6 trades, 2 were trade ups and 4 were trade downs.

Spielman - 2012-2021
In his first 3 years, Spielman traded back into the first round 3 times and they were all successful. Harrison Smith, Cordarelle Patterson and Teddy Bridgewater. After 2014, he never traded into the 4th round.

Over 10 seasons, Spielman traded down 27 times and traded up 10 times. His first 3 years were a 5/3 ratio. After that it was 22 times down and 7 times up.

Overall, he gained 3 first round picks.
He lost 3 second round picks.
He gained 4 picks in round 3-4 (prior to 2020, he had lost a net of 2 picks round 3-4 picks)
He gained 14 picks in rounds 5-7 (prior to 2021, he had gained a net of 18 round 5-7 picks)

2017 was special with a couple early trade ups, then 6 trade downs where he turned picks 86 and 199 into picks 109, 170, 180, 201, 219, 220, 245
2019 was another fun one where he essentially traded picks 81 and 209 for picks 102, 114, 159, 191, 193, 217

Spielman was pretty conservative in Rounds 1-2. He was really good at dropping a small number of picks, getting his guy (even if he sometimes sucked at picking that guy) and picking up a bunch of low picks. In Rounds 3-7, it really seemed like he preferred to stockpile picks rather than try to get more Round 3-4 picks. It wasn't until 2020 that he seemed to realize he needed those Round 3-4 guys.

In just 1 draft, which is not enough time for a trend, KAM seems to be nothing like Spielman.

Spielman never traded back as far as KAM did from #12. That was an outlier for sure.
KAM traded 34 for 53 and 59. Spielman once gave up 52, 83, 102, 228 for pick 29. He also once gave up 40 and 108 for pick 32
You also need to consider that 2 of the 1st rounders gained were from trading Percy Harvin and Stefon Diggs.
 

clone52

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You also need to consider that 2 of the 1st rounders gained were from trading Percy Harvin and Stefon Diggs.
No they were not. I only analyzed draft pick trades. They were trade ups for Smith, Patterson and Bridgewater.
 

Acylum

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stuclone

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7-2 at home, 2-5 on the road and 1-0 in London

10-7. First round exit to the Bucs/Rams/49ers

Rinse, Repeat.

Barely make the wildcard, terrible draft spot for 2023 and no cap space for FA
It's early in the offseason, so I'm right around 20-0 super bowl champs. KAMKOC delivers
 
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clone52

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7-2 at home, 2-5 on the road and 1-0 in London

10-7. First round exit to the Bucs/Rams/49ers

Rinse, Repeat.

Barely make the wildcard, terrible draft spot for 2023 and no cap space for FA

The no cap space is untrue if they want to tear down and rebuild for 2023.

They currently have $15M of cap space, which is terrible, but if they go into a rebuild, they could do the following.
Trade or Cut Hendricks (older, Asamoah might be the replacement
Trade or Cut Cook (expensive luxury on a rebuilding team, extend Mattison instead).
Trade or Cut Thielen (getting old, expensive luxury on a rebuilding team)
Trade or Cut Danielle Hunter (after June 1)
Trade or Cut Dalvin Tomlinson (after June 1
Trade or Cut Smith (older, got Cine now as replacement)
Trade or Cut Jordan Hicks
Trade or Cut CJ Ham (rebuilding team doesn't need to pay a fullback $4M)
Trade or Cut Zadarious Smith (expensive luxury on a rebuilding team)

Those moves would give you an extra $60M of cap space.
If you make all the cuts after June 1 (like Hunter), then you'd save another $20M on top.

Tons of cuttable guys that could save you around $1M each. Reed, Mond, Mundt, Surratt, Davids, Jones, Wonnum, Lynch, Dye, Hand, Metellus, Robinson, Jackson, Dorn, Twyman, Proehl, etc).

Obviously you don't cut everyone listed, but tonso f ways to make cap space. You could get yourself right there near the top of the league in room.
 

cyfan92

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The no cap space is untrue if they want to tear down and rebuild for 2023.

They currently have $15M of cap space, which is terrible, but if they go into a rebuild, they could do the following.
Trade or Cut Hendricks (older, Asamoah might be the replacement
Trade or Cut Cook (expensive luxury on a rebuilding team, extend Mattison instead).
Trade or Cut Thielen (getting old, expensive luxury on a rebuilding team)
Trade or Cut Danielle Hunter (after June 1)
Trade or Cut Dalvin Tomlinson (after June 1
Trade or Cut Smith (older, got Cine now as replacement)
Trade or Cut Jordan Hicks
Trade or Cut CJ Ham (rebuilding team doesn't need to pay a fullback $4M)
Trade or Cut Zadarious Smith (expensive luxury on a rebuilding team)

Those moves would give you an extra $60M of cap space.
If you make all the cuts after June 1 (like Hunter), then you'd save another $20M on top.

Tons of cuttable guys that could save you around $1M each. Reed, Mond, Mundt, Surratt, Davids, Jones, Wonnum, Lynch, Dye, Hand, Metellus, Robinson, Jackson, Dorn, Twyman, Proehl, etc).

Obviously you don't cut everyone listed, but tonso f ways to make cap space. You could get yourself right there near the top of the league in room.

You cannot field a SB team with the 10-15th best QB in the league having a cap hit of $36M+.
 

clone52

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You cannot field a SB team with the 10-15th best QB in the league having a cap hit of $36M+.

You are lamenting that the team is making decisions that keep it mediocre, then I provide a path to start a rebuild and your response is that that rebuilding 2023 Vikings team won't be a Super Bowl Team? Come on man, you can't have it both ways. What's done is done with Cousins.

You go my route, you have plenty of 2023 cap space to start the rebuild, you probably have a crappy team, high 2024 draft pics and then a freaking boatload of cap space in 2024. If you made all the cuts, you'd be looking at $160M in cap space in 2024, by 2025 you'd be down to less than $25M in Dead Money.

Not to mention, if you trade all of those guys instead of cut them, you are going to get some mid to late round draft picks, that could be used to trade up to a better picks. Lets say the Vikings have pick 20. You could package that with a 3rd round pick you get for Adam Thielan and a 4th round pick you get for Dalvin Cool and maybe move into the Top 12? Something like that.
 

clone52

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Same here - It's good for Wilf's ego, not good for the fans or the impact it has on the Team's routine for the season.

In completely meaningless information, in 2013, the Vikings started 0-3 against mediocre teams, won in london and then lost 4 straight against medicore teams.

In 2013, the Vikings started 5-2 with losses to good teams, won in London, then won 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 and had their second winningest season ever.

Not much evidence that it really impacts the Team's routine in a way that hurts in Ws/Ls.
 
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cyfan92

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You are lamenting that the team is making decisions that keep it mediocre, then I provide a path to start a rebuild and your response is that that rebuilding 2023 Vikings team won't be a Super Bowl Team? Come on man, you can't have it both ways. What's done is done with Cousins.

You go my route, you have plenty of 2023 cap space to start the rebuild, you probably have a crappy team, high 2024 draft pics and then a freaking boatload of cap space in 2024. If you made all the cuts, you'd be looking at $160M in cap space in 2024, by 2025 you'd be down to less than $25M in Dead Money.

Not to mention, if you trade all of those guys instead of cut them, you are going to get some mid to late round draft picks, that could be used to trade up to a better picks. Lets say the Vikings have pick 20. You could package that with a 3rd round pick you get for Adam Thielan and a 4th round pick you get for Dalvin Cool and maybe move into the Top 12? Something like that.

OH I think we are both on the same page. They either need to commit to rebuild and I love that option. Or they need to go all out for 2023 and get more WR, TE and OL help to try and outscore everyone.

They chose neither and are putting us in the "competitive rebuild" purgatory that gets you nowhere... It completely sucks for fans as it's teasing us with winning.

I'd rather be on the Falcons path through 2030 than the Vikings as it sits today..
 
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