2021 Stock Market

cyclone1209

Well-Known Member
Nov 5, 2010
472
322
63
Denver
The surge in inflation and interest rates upward will determine if the rotation into value stocks is a long term move or short term trend.

Trying to keep a prudent mix of value and growth in the portfolio right now.
 

cyfan92

Well-Known Member
Sep 20, 2011
2,829
3,849
113
Augusta National Golf Club
The surge in inflation and interest rates upward will determine if the rotation into value stocks is a long term move or short term trend.

Trying to keep a prudent mix of value and growth in the portfolio right now.

VTSAX

I'm up 9% in 2021 versus 7% for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ
 
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NATEizKING

Well-Known Member
Feb 18, 2011
17,133
8,237
113
Hilton
Its up 70% PM and 84% of the float is shorted...

Normally has 1M volume on good days and has 4.5M PM...
Back down to 7 haha, fun while it lasted but I like the increasing floors on no news. Don't even have trial results yet, coming in Q4. I just love the stock because of the potential coming and the past success of the team. Guy who discovered THC (Raphael Mechoulam) and some guys who were on the team that discovered Remicade, which is Johnson and Johnson's biggest selling drug. The phase 3 trial happening now is just repurposing an existing drug and was fully funded by grants.

 

frackincygy

Active Member
Jul 13, 2015
122
106
43
Back down to 7 haha, fun while it lasted but I like the increasing floors on no news. Don't even have trial results yet, coming in Q4. I just love the stock because of the potential coming and the past success of the team. Guy who discovered THC (Raphael Mechoulam) and some guys who were on the team that discovered Remicade, which is Johnson and Johnson's biggest selling drug. The phase 3 trial happening now is just repurposing an existing drug and was fully funded by grants.

After following biotechs for the last few years (started circa 2015) the no.1 asset of a clinical stage company (i.e. no marketable product) is CASH, as CASH = RUNWAY (burn rate is also a factor, but that relates to how fast the company will use up their cash position). Otherwise shorts can/will drive down the price and force dilution (i.e. capital raises) at lower prices - a win-win as they get to cover their shorts (i.e. make money) in addition to holding a larger portion of the original company (greater return when pastures turn green).

I scrolled through the latest posted 10K (Dec. 2019) on 180's website and their cash was listed at <$1M on the balance sheet with another ~$10M in an "investment account" (I think this has to do with the SPAC merger to list and that goes beyond my understanding TBH - p.44 pdf/p.39 10K - see balance sheet for cash position); slide 20 of their last investor presentation also seemed "off" to me as their is no mention of cash position, rather debt/market cap - a bit "red-flaggy" for my taste.

It takes A LOT of time/money to get a drug up and going (regardless of ph.3 trial readout/success) - need manufacturing, need sales/marketing, need to deal with insurance, how big is the target market to begin with, etc.

IMO I wouldn't invest at this time as it seems further dilution before offering a commercial product is inevitable. The rest of their pipeline is so early in development that you'll likely be holding shares for 4+ years before seeing a meaningful return, which means holding a ton of risk for further dilution and/or clinical failure during that time - that said you could make money on a "swing trade"... who knows.

Just my $0.02 - I'm not an expert I just like to follow stonks. GLTU!
 

mynameisjonas

Well-Known Member
Jan 19, 2019
1,687
2,416
113
I like biotechs with cash runway that are derisked with already approved products. Getting in before fda approval is a little too risky for me. But can be rewarding.
 
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Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
19,043
23,637
113
Washington, DC
The surge in inflation and interest rates upward will determine if the rotation into value stocks is a long term move or short term trend.

Trying to keep a prudent mix of value and growth in the portfolio right now.
Inflation only happens if the economy runs out of labor and capital to produce actual products relative to current nominal incomes and nominal prices -- if it comes up short, then prices are going to rise.

I'm normally pretty doom-and-gloom about our fiscal situation, and I still am, but (1.) a lot of the Trumpbuxx and Bidenbuxx are either hitting the economy slowly (e.g., states will only slowly spend their Bidenbuxx over the next few years) or people are plowing their money for tendies into the market for even more tendies later.

So that might allow the economy to absorb all this extra demand (assuming a lot of the consumption deploys only slowly), though with so much of the money being invested/saved/used to pay down debt, it is only going to push up asset and equity prices further. Might not hit the CPI much, but the market is roaring.
 

NATEizKING

Well-Known Member
Feb 18, 2011
17,133
8,237
113
Hilton
After following biotechs for the last few years (started circa 2015) the no.1 asset of a clinical stage company (i.e. no marketable product) is CASH, as CASH = RUNWAY (burn rate is also a factor, but that relates to how fast the company will use up their cash position). Otherwise shorts can/will drive down the price and force dilution (i.e. capital raises) at lower prices - a win-win as they get to cover their shorts (i.e. make money) in addition to holding a larger portion of the original company (greater return when pastures turn green).

I scrolled through the latest posted 10K (Dec. 2019) on 180's website and their cash was listed at <$1M on the balance sheet with another ~$10M in an "investment account" (I think this has to do with the SPAC merger to list and that goes beyond my understanding TBH - p.44 pdf/p.39 10K - see balance sheet for cash position); slide 20 of their last investor presentation also seemed "off" to me as their is no mention of cash position, rather debt/market cap - a bit "red-flaggy" for my taste.

It takes A LOT of time/money to get a drug up and going (regardless of ph.3 trial readout/success) - need manufacturing, need sales/marketing, need to deal with insurance, how big is the target market to begin with, etc.

IMO I wouldn't invest at this time as it seems further dilution before offering a commercial product is inevitable. The rest of their pipeline is so early in development that you'll likely be holding shares for 4+ years before seeing a meaningful return, which means holding a ton of risk for further dilution and/or clinical failure during that time - that said you could make money on a "swing trade"... who knows.

Just my $0.02 - I'm not an expert I just like to follow stonks. GLTU!
They have a few doll hairs, I bought in after seeing the two big Vanguard purchases (1.2 million shares). The borrow fee rate on Webull is 101.72%!

 
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cyclone1209

Well-Known Member
Nov 5, 2010
472
322
63
Denver
Today I'm a happy holder of chwy - Chewy Dog brands:

more people having pets as a proxy for children (seriously), excellent online platform, easy to use shipping. This is not investment advice just a business and a stock I really think is going to do well. Think of it as an amazon for dogs stuff. Speaking of amazon i wouldn't rule it out for them to buy them down the road.