I think it's valuable to schedule the extra game, which Prohm has not done the last couple years. Not sure his theory with it. Looked it up, I don't think Fred did either. Most teams schedule 13 non con, Iowa St has had just 12.
Last week I would have said it's critical to have that as an auto win. Just because if a team gets to 20-21 wins overall, their chances of making the tournament go up exponentially. However, after the selection committee took a few lower win teams over teams that had that magical 20-22 wins, maybe it's not as important.
That said, the Big 12 consistently has a way of being one of the highest rated conferences in the country. So if Iowa St can get 9 wins in conference, and 20 overall, I would put them at 75% to get in. That's 11 wins in the non con. Can they go 11-2? Makes that Maui swing game very important, either 1-2 or 2-1.