There are 84 bowl bids, so the easiest way to do the math I think is to see whether 83 or more teams will get to 6 wins, Rice excluded. If yes, then Iowa State is not going to have a spot; if no and the number is 82 or fewer, Iowa State will get a bid if we end up at 5-7. (I am assuming Cincinnati wins.) If you just exclude Rice, then it counts them as ahead of ISU whether or not they win next week, which is true.
Will be interesting to do the math on this tomorrow once all the games are done.
82 bids. 41 bowls this year, not including the championship.
Word is ESPN won't create a bowl game out of the blue like they did last year.