***2021-22 NCAA Mens Basketball Thread***
- Thread starter BigJCy
- Start date
Yeah, couldn't sleep so was up messing with numbers earlier this morning. I posted this in another BB thread. I have WIS at #6, ISU #10, Alabama is underrated too.
Playing around with NET rankings and Quad records, I have put subjective numbers to values and came up with the following. West Virginia is quite a bit underrated and Texas is overrated. Also shows three groupings in Big 12 (in order):
Tier 1: 2-Baylor, 3-Kansas, 10-Iowa State, 13-Texas Tech
Tier 2: 26-West Virginia, 30-Oklahoma, 35-Texas, 43-Oklahoma State
Tier 3: 56-Kansas State, 57-TCU
| Rank | NET | Team |
| 1 | 6 | Auburn |
| 2 | 5 | Baylor |
| 3 | 9 | Kansas |
| 4 | 3 | Villanova |
| 5 | 8 | LSU |
| 6 | 17 | Wisconsin |
| 7 | 7 | Purdue |
| 8 | 24 | Alabama |
| 9 | 15 | Xavier |
| 10 | 23 | Iowa State |
| 11 | 11 | Illinois |
| 12 | 26 | BYU |
| 13 | 14 | Texas Tech |
| 14 | 32 | Providence |
| 15 | 2 | Arizona |
| 16 | 1 | Gonzaga |
| 17 | 22 | Ohio State |
| 18 | 25 | Michigan State |
| 19 | 13 | Tennessee |
| 20 | 4 | Houston |
| 21 | 39 | Marquette |
| 22 | 12 | Duke |
| 23 | 29 | Seton Hall |
| 24 | 34 | San Francisco |
| 25 | 28 | USC |
| 26 | 45 | West Virginia |
| 27 | 10 | Kentucky |
| 28 | 16 | Uconn |
| 29 | 38 | Belmont |
| 30 | 36 | Oklahoma |
| 31 | 35 | Davidson |
| 32 | 27 | Wyoming |
| 33 | 66 | Miama Fl |
| 34 | 20 | UCLA |
| 35 | 19 | Texas |
| 36 | 31 | Murray State |
| 37 | 18 | Loyola Chicago |
| 38 | 43 | San Diego State |
| 39 | 21 | Iowa |
| 40 | 49 | Iona |
Disagree completely. I actually like that it's a black box because I don't want guys trying to game the system.
And Texas and Iowa make no sense - way too high. I don't believe NET has a preseason bias, but perhaps it does, and that would help explain some of the outliers.
I also wonder if the weighting of NET efficiencies goes down as the season goes on and there are more w/l and SOS data points. I think it makes sense to use efficiencies for a while, but when every team has played over 30 games I don't see the need to use any predictive tools any more.
As for gaming the system, I'll hand it to them, it makes it hard to do when your system can spit out such idiotic results as Iowa and Texas being where they are. Actually, I think the Iowa outlier at least helps provide some insight - keep your starters in and press if you are up against the garbage teams. If you are getting blown out by a good team, wait until they put in their garbage time guys and walk-ons, then press the hell out of them with your starters to make the margin better.
If I had to guess, it's that the margin of victory is capped at 10, but the efficiency metrics aren't capped - so basically blowing teams out by 40 and doing while shooting 70% still matters a whole lot. Iowa did that very well against the cupcakes, and so did UT.
That seems to be driving it. I do wonder if offensive efficiency also is weighted more heavily. I don't think ISU and Wisconsin's net efficiencies are too different from Iowa, but Iowa's is driven by great offensive efficiency. Whether it's in weighting or if there's some other way in how it's formulated it seems like offensive efficiency is being valued pretty heavily.
It seems like most systems, NET ended up shaking out over time and not producing strange outliers.
OSU defense is 7th in Pomeroy. Their offense 174. How on earth did they win AT Baylor? Baylor must have totally overlooked them.
9 of 10 teams in the top 30 defensively. No nights off in this league. Don't bother to comb your hair.
DEF OFF
Tech 2 66
ISU 4 108
Baylor 12 5
Texas 18 30
Wv 22 102
KSU 23 132
TCU 26 125
OU 28 56
Kansas 35 3
I think you have it here. Run it up on the cupcakes and your OE looks amazing. Ho-hum it against the cupcakes and your OE looks very meh.
That's your difference with Iowa and ISU. Iowa put it on those teams. ISU, due to both style and early season figuring themselves out, did not.
The shocking conclusion to that is ISU's offense is probably better than it looks on paper.
Let's all put that in our collective pipes and smoke it.
Hoosiers up 11. Would be a great win for them. Hope they can make the tournament for Trayce Jackson-Davis's sake.
Last edited:
From ISU standpoint, there's good(ish) news & bad news.
Good news: Memphis is unlikely to drop below a Q2 win.
Bad news: Possibility of Memphis returning to Q1 win is fading.
(Even the "bad" is marginal, considering potential NET-gain within conference ... just an observation)
Why is Purdue ranked so high? I am not impressed
Last edited:
