State of ISU MBB if we had hired Otz instead of Prohm?

[usedcarguy]

If Monte was 2-3" taller or Georges was 30 lbs lighter Fred would have had the same holes to fill from early NBA departures. Maybe (probably) he could have filled them better but having those guys arriving as four year all-conference level players with very little risk of leaving early because of their lack of NBA prototype build was a cornerstone.

Otz does seem to have retained and targeted some guys that could fit that mold. Hunter seems legit but doesn't have the measurables that jump off the page for NBA scouts.

I don't disagree, but an argument could be made that if Monte was taller and Georges lighter, Fred likely wouldn't have landed them in the first place. As I mentioned, it makes you wonder if Fred's success helped Prohm land those guys. But on that thought, would that success and having to fill holes eventually been a problem for Fred? Seems like a crazy argument, but maybe it's not that crazy.

 

[CYEATHAWK]

I don't disagree, but an argument could be made that if Monte was taller and Georges lighter, Fred likely wouldn't have landed them in the first place. As I mentioned, it makes you wonder if Fred's success helped Prohm land those guys. But on that thought, would that success and having to fill holes eventually been a problem for Fred? Seems like a crazy argument, but maybe it's not that crazy.

It's all crazy but what the heck right? If TJ would have had the job instead of Steve.....in his first year when Naz went down......would he still have made McKay go to class like Steve did? Would things have gone exactly the way they did hence giving ISU a great draw to make the sweet sixteen? Because if not........would they have made the sweet sixteen? Could TJ have beat Chris Beard at ALR after they upset Purdue? Remember.....until the last two seasons Prohm had a winning record against Beard.

See, it's easy for those to say "well at least we wouldn't have had the last two terrible years". Okay.....probably not, especially this last year. But that's an easy out.....my 18 year old ISU freshman could probably squeeze out 1 win. But an argument can also be made we wouldn't have a sweet sixteen banner hanging at hilton, and two less conference tourney trophies in the case had TJ been here instead. When you change one thing, you change everything. And regardless of how loud those miserable people shouted the last six years about missed 30 win seasons and final four runs thanks to Steve............the more sane thinking is TJ wouldn't have done it either.

 

[HFCS]

It's all crazy but what the heck right? If TJ would have had the job instead of Steve.....in his first year when Naz went down......would he still have made McKay go to class like Steve did? Would things have gone exactly the way they did hence giving ISU a great draw to make the sweet sixteen? Because if not........would they have made the sweet sixteen? Could TJ have beat Chris Beard at ALR after they upset Purdue? Remember.....until the last two seasons Prohm had a winning record against Beard.

See, it's easy for those to say "well at least we wouldn't have had the last two terrible years". Okay.....probably not, especially this last year. But that's an easy out.....my 18 year old ISU freshman could probably squeeze out 1 win. But an argument can also be made we wouldn't have a sweet sixteen banner hanging at hilton, and two less conference tourney trophies in the case had TJ been here instead. When you change one thing, you change everything. And regardless of how loud those miserable people shouted the last six years about missed 30 win seasons and final four runs thanks to Steve............the more sane thinking is TJ wouldn't have done it either.

I watched some videos of one of our teams the other day...4 active roster NBA guys, a 5th active roster guy who would be in NBA if not shot to death, 6th guy who was up and down from G league for a while...and McKay was probably the top performer in the game.

Ridiculous talent...but without justifiably leaving after 1-2 years like Steve's recruits that went NBA.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I watched some videos of one of our teams the other day...4 active roster NBA guys, a 5th active roster guy who would be in NBA if not shot to death, 6th guy who was up and down from G league for a while...and McKay was probably the top performer in the game.

Ridiculous talent...but without justifiably leaving after 1-2 years like Steve's recruits that went NBA.

Still don’t know how that wasn’t a top-five squad.

 

[CyLyte2]

I’m excited about TJ and glad he didn’t have to deal with the effed up roster that Hoiberg left behind. Great news I’m leaving you a ton of talented juniors and seniors, the bad news is I haven’t been recruiting the last two years so good luck balancing the roster after those guys graduate.

Still doing it.

 

[CyLyte2]

Why do I get the feeling all the “water under the bridge” people are the Prohm apologists. Just admit it. Prohm rode Fred’s success into the ground because he was a bad coach who should have NEVER been hired for the job. And it was evident from the beginning.

 

[CyLyte2]

It's all crazy but what the heck right? If TJ would have had the job instead of Steve.....in his first year when Naz went down......would he still have made McKay go to class like Steve did? Would things have gone exactly the way they did hence giving ISU a great draw to make the sweet sixteen? Because if not........would they have made the sweet sixteen? Could TJ have beat Chris Beard at ALR after they upset Purdue? Remember.....until the last two seasons Prohm had a winning record against Beard.

See, it's easy for those to say "well at least we wouldn't have had the last two terrible years". Okay.....probably not, especially this last year. But that's an easy out.....my 18 year old ISU freshman could probably squeeze out 1 win. But an argument can also be made we wouldn't have a sweet sixteen banner hanging at hilton, and two less conference tourney trophies in the case had TJ been here instead. When you change one thing, you change everything. And regardless of how loud those miserable people shouted the last six years about missed 30 win seasons and final four runs thanks to Steve............the more sane thinking is TJ wouldn't have done it either.

Yes, anything Prohm did TJ could have done. Most of US could have done it(you can read that as “us” or the “US” it’s the same point). Prohm rolled the balls out and Georges’ crew made him look good.

 

[RustShack]

TJ getting experience at other schools, with other coaches, building connections helps make him a better coach now.

 

[IceCyIce]

I’m pretty confident we would have been undefeated for 4-6 years and have at least 4 national championships

 

[Cyinthenorth]

If Monte was 2-3" taller or Georges was 30 lbs lighter Fred would have had the same holes to fill from early NBA departures. Maybe (probably) he could have filled them better but having those guys arriving as four year all-conference level players with very little risk of leaving early because of their lack of NBA prototype build was a cornerstone.

Otz does seem to have retained and targeted some guys that could fit that mold. Hunter seems legit but doesn't have the measurables that jump off the page for NBA scouts.

Let's just say if Fred had been the coach, I don't think Jeff Beverly, Merrill Holden, or Prentiss Nixon would have been Cyclones. Talley and Bowie debatable. I think he might've signed Brase or a guy similar to him however. Steve hit a home run with Shayok, a ground rule double with Bolton, but was otherwise prone to signing mediocre at best transfers.

 

[CYEATHAWK]

rolled the balls out and Georges’ crew made him look good.

Well, considering that's what they say Fred's offense looks like now at Nebraska.....I would say Georges and crew made everyone look good.

 

[HFCS]

Yes, anything Prohm did TJ could have done. Most of US could have done it(you can read that as “us” or the “US” it’s the same point). Prohm rolled the balls out and Georges’ crew made him look good.

Coaching Monte Morris's senior team and barely taking him out of a game all season would be any new coach's dream.

There's a reason he's the Big 12's all time minutes played leader. (and he has a 236 minute cushion on the #2 guy)

 

[VeloClone]

Good God. It was bad enough when it was either Prohm is the devil and Fred is a saint or Fred is the devil and Prohm is a saint. Now we have to throw in another devil/saint candidate, TJ. Why can't we just appreciate what each of them did for the ISU program rather than raking them over the coals for this or that.

Grow up, people.

 

[UnCytely]

So let me get this straight, in his first season he would have finished alot worse than Prohm's 10-8 team and first round exit in the Big 12? But he would have went alot further than the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tourney?

I didn't say "a lot worse". I think Otz's 2015-2016 team would have finished a game or two behind Prohm's real team in the conference season, made the tournament with a bit lower seed, but advance further by not having to play a team like Virginia right away.

 

[usedcarguy]

It's all crazy but what the heck right? If TJ would have had the job instead of Steve.....in his first year when Naz went down......would he still have made McKay go to class like Steve did? Would things have gone exactly the way they did hence giving ISU a great draw to make the sweet sixteen? Because if not........would they have made the sweet sixteen? Could TJ have beat Chris Beard at ALR after they upset Purdue? Remember.....until the last two seasons Prohm had a winning record against Beard.

See, it's easy for those to say "well at least we wouldn't have had the last two terrible years". Okay.....probably not, especially this last year. But that's an easy out.....my 18 year old ISU freshman could probably squeeze out 1 win. But an argument can also be made we wouldn't have a sweet sixteen banner hanging at hilton, and two less conference tourney trophies in the case had TJ been here instead. When you change one thing, you change everything. And regardless of how loud those miserable people shouted the last six years about missed 30 win seasons and final four runs thanks to Steve............the more sane thinking is TJ wouldn't have done it either.

If you think I'm one of the "we would have won 30 with TJ and made the final 4" people, you're sadly mistaken. In reality, TJ had far more experience than most are giving credit. He was the Associate HC during Fred's entire tenure, and was in charge of scouting and game planning for the 2012 and 2013 teams. He was the lead recruiter for Georges, Naz, and Thomas as well as several others. He had a helluva lot more experience at the time than Fred did when he started.

Jamie knew what he was doing in trying to hire him at the time. Would his first few years have gone exactly the same as Prohm's? Of course not. But there is nothing to convince me it would have been worse than it was under Steve. TJ wouldn't have had to walk on egg shells trying to get the team to buy in. Everyone seems to forget how rough much of that first season went.

With what I've seen with TJ, yes, he would have made McKay go to class. Like Campbell, he truly cares about his players off the court as well as on. (as an aside, that puts both TJ as well as Prohm ahead of Tim Floyd who had three players quit going during their final semester) And it's not out of line to presume that even with some perceived coaching deficiencies, for no other reason than continuity we would have had an equal level of performance with what would have been his first team.

With the gift of hindsight, about the only difference I see had we gone with him is that we wouldn't have had to endure those last two seasons...with a possibility that we could have been at a higher level today. In five years we'll either have confirmation or go back to the drawing board. But I've been around enough people like TJ in my life to know that he's not going to fail. Those types of people never fail.

 

[CYdTracked]

Not going to read through all the replies so far but at the time I liked the Prohm hire because he had head coaching experience and had recruited and coached NBA talent already too. Even after the rough years lately he still has a .618 overall win % as a head coach and look at how many players he put in the NBA here despite the disappointing seasons. I think he eventually gets another job at a mid major and takes them to the tournament.

I think the TJ hire now is a lot safer than it was had we hired him without any HC experience back then. I am still a little skeptical of the coaching "search" we did this time as there surely were some more experienced candidates out there to consider but I am onboard with the hire and like the start he is off to. I hope he succeeds and has a long tenure here but until we see the results on the court this will be an open debate for a long time.

 

[usedcarguy]

Not going to read through all the replies so far but at the time I liked the Prohm hire because he had head coaching experience and had recruited and coached NBA talent already too. Even after the rough years lately he still has a .618 overall win % as a head coach and look at how many players he put in the NBA here despite the disappointing seasons. I think he eventually gets another job at a mid major and takes them to the tournament.

I think the TJ hire now is a lot safer than it was had we hired him without any HC experience back then. I am still a little skeptical of the coaching "search" we did this time as there surely were some more experienced candidates out there to consider but I am onboard with the hire and like the start he is off to. I hope he succeeds and has a long tenure here but until we see the results on the court this will be an open debate for a long time.

I was OK with the Prohm hire as well, even though I wanted TJ. Looked great on paper. But how they look on paper isn't always what matters. Fred's hire didn't look good on paper and it worked out fine.

Without a doubt Pollard had this on his mind all of last season (if not before) and likely had TJ pegged as his first and only choice long before the end of the season. But he had the opportunity to see TJ up front and personal for several years, and that should carry a disproportionate a mount of weight. I think we'll be fine.

 

[cyclone1209]

I think Otz is going to be a much better coach for us than we expected him to be. A lot of people were hesitant about him, perhaps very legitimately so, based on his performance at UNLV this past season, but he has done some really awesome recruiting in a very, very short time.

Anyway, I would like to see some musings on what would have happened the past few years if we had hired him instead of Steve Prohm back in 2015. I think he might not have done quite as well as CSP that first conference season, but would have advanced much, much further in the NCAA tournament. I think the adjustment from Hoiberg to Otz would have taken a bit longer for the players, but would have born fruit by the end of the season. For the subsequent years, I think we might not have had quite as many road wins as CSP had, but all those really awful losses at home would NOT have happened. And, of course, this years egg-laying would not have happened.

Otz has been an absolute ACE on the recruiting trail. But this is somewhat a difficult hypothetical at this stage in the game - and kinda pointless

The program floundered under Prohm at the end, and now TJ can rectify it.

I underestimated his recruiting prowess and think he has the chance to do really well here.

 

[bosco]

Prohm had a team with 6 NBA players and went 10-8 in the B12 for 5th place.

 

[awd4cy]

I don’t think many coaches do worse than 10-8 in 2015-16 with that team.