Big XII expansion article

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SEIOWA CLONE

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Dec 19, 2018
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I wasn't approaching it from ISU specific. I was approaching strictly from ratings and tv revenue. Last year was an anomaly because Houston had such a bad record but they have done quite well the previous years. Houston still watches college football but its been taken over by the SEC ratings wise. The Big 12 has not done the best recruiting wise in Houston since A&M went to the SEC also. No ISU wouldn't get the cream of the crop in Houston but the league would be better overall with those recruits. If you go into Tampa/Orlando with UCF/USF you are going to be second fiddle to Florida & FSU.

I do think OU is opposed to UH in the league so that is a very high bar for UH to get over anyway.

In the end, no expansion meets the hurdle of raising the average tv revenue for all partners unless its USC or UCLA. Maybe a geographical expansion of Arkansas and/or Nebraska but thats not probably happening either. Unless the playoffs required leagues to be 12 or more for playoffs for some reason I don't see the Big 12 making any additions unless USC wants to wander. USC would be strong enough to build around to bring a few teams with, maybe UCLA without USC due to the LA market.

Sorry but the league is not going to get a huge bump in rating and revenue from TV by adding UH to the league. As you yourself said, the SEC is taking over that market, just like they are recruiting better in Texas now with aTm in the conference. Let them have UH if they want, which they don't, and let UH fend for themselves, and go broke doing it.

ISU is never going to get the cream of the crop from Texas, I was talking about the second and third tier players that are overlooked, and just want an opportunity to play and show the OU and UT's of the world that they made a mistake by not offering them. While allow them to do that at UH instead of ISU?
 

JM4CY

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SEIOWA CLONE

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Dec 19, 2018
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Houston is no help as a 5th Texas school

BUT

Would you take them as a FOURTH Texas school after kicking out Baylor?

Sure, but kicking Baylor out of the league is never going to happen, they have to many wealthy alumni and way to much political influence in the state of Texas for that to ever occur.

Whether we like it or not, we are stuck with Baylor.
 

Win5002

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Apr 20, 2010
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I still say go for broke and bring back Mizzou. Try to pull Arkansas with them. If WVU wants to take that opportunity to leave, let them go without penalty. Once WVU leaves, then we can look to invite Colorado, and maybe BYU with them. Keep it to 2 time zones and maintain geographic continuity.

If networks looked at individual schools economically, I think they would view Arkansas and Missouri better utilized in the Big 12 than the current SEC. If the long range goal though is to make it a better home for OU/UT to join the SEC, those teams serve as a good bridge. I truly hope this never happens because it is horrible for CFB if either the B1G or SEC get these two because the leagues would be too unbalanced for the sport. IF the SEC is not going to get OU/UT I would think the SEC is indifferent to these teams going to another league. Arkansas and Missouri are basically T3 content to the SEC and can be involved in T2 content regularly and even some T1 content depending on their seasons.

Now the problem is convincing those schools to move if there are large revenue differences. If the revenue differences are minor hopefully the schools look at their ability to compete in the Big 12 due to their geographic location and rivalries and realize better performance on the field could lead to better fund raising making up some of a potential revenue gap. Lower travel costs could help some also.

Hopefully at some point, winning and being successful matters more than a little more tv revenue. The basketball content would be great and the football would provide solid regional rivalry games.
 

3GenClone

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Jun 28, 2009
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Need to stop thinking about TV ratings and figure out who streams the most. I think the move to ESPN+ for tier 3 rights was a solid move in that the Big 12 is going to be in a lot of homes that have adopted Disney+. It's cheaper to buy the package of Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ than it is to buy any two services separately, so the Big 12 exposure is there in non-traditional Big 12 markets.

Using the map when Disney+ launched (& crashed immediately) we can see the markets that the Big 12 could easily gain more viewers.

screen-shot-2019-11-12-at-23947-pm.png


https://www.fatherly.com/news/disney-plus-live-outage-map/

This map is from last November, and while it is only Disney+ subscribers, it identifies markets that are more quickly to adopt a streaming service.

Here is a screen capture I took of DownDetector that gives us an idea where ESPN+ is already available:
upload_2020-7-14_14-28-41.png

The biggest market that stands out to me is Cincinnati. They have a high adoption of Disney+, but a low adoption of ESPN+ and Ohio HS football consistently ranks in the top 10 for producing college-ready athletes.
 

mj4cy

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Need to stop thinking about TV ratings and figure out who streams the most. I think the move to ESPN+ for tier 3 rights was a solid move in that the Big 12 is going to be in a lot of homes that have adopted Disney+. It's cheaper to buy the package of Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ than it is to buy any two services separately, so the Big 12 exposure is there in non-traditional Big 12 markets.

Using the map when Disney+ launched (& crashed immediately) we can see the markets that the Big 12 could easily gain more viewers.

screen-shot-2019-11-12-at-23947-pm.png


https://www.fatherly.com/news/disney-plus-live-outage-map/

This map is from last November, and while it is only Disney+ subscribers, it identifies markets that are more quickly to adopt a streaming service.

Here is a screen capture I took of DownDetector that gives us an idea where ESPN+ is already available:
View attachment 73535

The biggest market that stands out to me is Cincinnati. They have a high adoption of Disney+, but a low adoption of ESPN+ and Ohio HS football consistently ranks in the top 10 for producing college-ready athletes.

I've always wanted Cincinnati. Seems they have a good fan following, in a larger metro area and would be a nice geographic add for WVU. However not sure metro size matters as much as it did before with everything being streaming now.
 

Jeffrey Scott

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Sep 28, 2017
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Just win and limit our conference to two time zones. That's all I've got. With the Covid situation, I don't have the energy to think about this.
 

Win5002

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Apr 20, 2010
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Need to stop thinking about TV ratings and figure out who streams the most. I think the move to ESPN+ for tier 3 rights was a solid move in that the Big 12 is going to be in a lot of homes that have adopted Disney+. It's cheaper to buy the package of Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ than it is to buy any two services separately, so the Big 12 exposure is there in non-traditional Big 12 markets.

Using the map when Disney+ launched (& crashed immediately) we can see the markets that the Big 12 could easily gain more viewers.

screen-shot-2019-11-12-at-23947-pm.png


https://www.fatherly.com/news/disney-plus-live-outage-map/

This map is from last November, and while it is only Disney+ subscribers, it identifies markets that are more quickly to adopt a streaming service.

Here is a screen capture I took of DownDetector that gives us an idea where ESPN+ is already available:
View attachment 73535

The biggest market that stands out to me is Cincinnati. They have a high adoption of Disney+, but a low adoption of ESPN+ and Ohio HS football consistently ranks in the top 10 for producing college-ready athletes.

T3 will never be the driving force of expansion. We are getting maybe 1-2M for T3 content at the current time for everyone except Texas and OU. Unless forced to expand which I don't see, T1 ratings drive the bus and to a lesser extent T2. T3 is so far down the line.

Unless you are talking about future T2 and T3 content its not important in the overall scheme of things.
 

CloneGuy8

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Mar 20, 2017
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I used to be pretty 'meh' on UCF, however they would be a good add the more I think about it. Largest university in Florida, 4th largest nationwide. Football program has been good lately.

That said, Big 12 wont expand unless teams will generate more revenue for the conference. Tough when you have to split up revenue with 2 more teams.
 

CoKane

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Oct 26, 2013
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Not sure how someone makes a list like this and doesn't put Cincy on it. They're the most obvious and easy take for the Big 12 for a number of reasons
 
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3GenClone

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T3 will never be the driving force of expansion. We are getting maybe 1-2M for T3 content at the current time for everyone except Texas and OU. Unless forced to expand which I don't see, T1 ratings drive the bus and to a lesser extent T2. T3 is so far down the line.

Unless you are talking about future T2 and T3 content its not important in the overall scheme of things.

You are correct, but I think traditional TV "markets" need to be somewhat minimized in the expansion discussion, or at least spend as much emphasis on streaming as they do on market size.

For example, the #1 Nielsen market is New York City with 6,824,120 homes with a TV which represents 6.377% of the US. As of May 5, there were 7.9 million ESPN+ subscribers.
 

Jiub

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Nov 11, 2015
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Bumping because I am bored and was wondering if COVID will affect the timeframe or decision for conference expansion. This article was released recently as well: Former Texas AD says Big 12 should add more teams (247sports.com).

I know talk has been about Cincinnati and Just throwing out crazy ideas...is Tennessee a potential option? They seem to be struggling in SEC as of late and would be a nice geographic location to Big 12 and would increase TV footprint. I don't think they leave SEC, but is intriguing. Please anyone besides SMU/Houston, don't need more Texas schools. Vols fanbase seems salty SEC cancelled a game on them this year also so that Vandy and Mizzou can play.
 

CyGuy5

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Dec 4, 2013
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Bumping because I am bored and was wondering if COVID will affect the timeframe or decision for conference expansion. This article was released recently as well: Former Texas AD says Big 12 should add more teams (247sports.com).

I know talk has been about Cincinnati and Just throwing out crazy ideas...is Tennessee a potential option? They seem to be struggling in SEC as of late and would be a nice geographic location to Big 12 and would increase TV footprint. I don't think they leave SEC, but is intriguing. Please anyone besides SMU/Houston, don't need more Texas schools. Vols fanbase seems salty SEC cancelled a game on them this year also so that Vandy and Mizzou can play.

If the B12 ever expands, I don't see us trying to flip someone from another P5. I would take Cincy and another G5 team that has the facilities and academics to move up. Ive thrown out Colorado State but that doesn't seem like a popular choice.