Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

[Acylum]

I found this site extremely informative. It keeps track of not only the number of cases in every state, but the number of tests that are being done. Seems to be pretty accurate based on Iowa's numbers.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

The name of that site is Politico. Don’t you know there’s no politics allowed in this thread? Now you’ve ruined it for everybody.

 

[Trice]

Yes exactly. If schools and businesses are closed, and while they're closed we're collecting data, then any projection based on that data is going to assume that conditions remain the same. If you want to simulate different conditions at different times, you have to manipulate the model so it's no longer just coming from the deaths/day data.

Okay then...if the part I bolded above is true...then why have assumptions built into the model at all for that seven day period? If all the data up to the present time reflects whatever mitigation efforts have or have not happened, and the projection based on that data assumes the same conditions until seven days later when mitigation is strictly observed, how do the assumptions influence the model during those seven days?

 

[ISUAgronomist]

Here is a photo of said action, over 400 people had asked for number to bid.

Lot of Amish men there. That could be absolutely devastating to their community.

 

[Cy$]

Lot of Amish men there. That could be absolutely devastating to their community.

they're indestructible, they're amish.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Okay then...if the part I bolded above is true...then why have assumptions built into the model at all for that seven day period? If all the data up to the present time reflects whatever mitigation efforts have or have not happened, and the projection based on that data assumes the same conditions until seven days later when mitigation is strictly observed, how do the assumptions influence the model during those seven days?

They use the baseline to predict from today until today+7, then from today+8 to September or whenever they use reduced transmission rates (which effects hospitalization/ICU/vent/death counts) to simulate enacting stricter SIP policies. But my concern is that the Iowa baseline data already has school and business closings built in. Then the model reduces transmission seven days from now when in reality the transmission can't be reduced that much. You can't "double shutdown" schools and businesses - the bulk of that benefit has already been realized. We're generating the numbers we are today with many places having already shut down.

 

[Acylum]

I do watch the speeches, she said they are using their data and metrics to try and figure out the hot spots and see whether or not they need to issue more mandates for those areas. How can you look at those areas and think they don't need different measures taken? They realize the eastern side is worse, but it must not be bad enough in their eyes to change anything. Once it starts getting worse, you're already setting yourself up for failure.

Keep in mind, total numbers don’t indicate hotspots.

 

[Gunnerclone]

they're indestructible, they're amish.

Thought so too until I called up my Amish guy to come strip and refinish the front door and Ma said he got kicked in the face by a horse and doesn’t work so good no more.

 

[clonerules]

So am I mistaken then when I interpret that they are not factoring in the steps already taken??

 

[besserheimerphat]

So am I mistaken then when I interpret that they are not factoring in the steps already taken??

The steps already taken are already reflected in the data. To "not factor in" those steps, you'd have to artificially INCREASE the current data to show where we'd be if we hadn't done anything yet. They are saying that if the state hasn't mandated a policy yet, they assume that policy hasn't gone into effect and it will be put into effect within 7 days.

 

[simply1]

I’d hate to see an Amish ventilator

 

[BCClone]

I’d hate to see an Amish ventilator

 

[BCClone]

Ladies still have 53% of the cases. On news they said men generally get it more routinely. Does that mean Iowa men are more clean than the Iowa women?

 

[Acylum]

Ladies still have 53% of the cases. On news they said men generally get it more routinely. Does that mean Iowa men are more clean than the Iowa women?

The gap has really narrowed though. But women live longer on average. But I’ve seen the same data as you stating males are the more susceptible. Maybe it was men are more likely to die from it. Now I don’t recall.

 

[isufbcurt]

Playgrounds or parks. You can’t even walk in our parks. I understand playgrounds due to the disinfecting issue, but you can’t even walk in them.

Where do you live that parks are closed? Every park around me is open, we just walked the dogs through some today. The Gov even keeps saying to get outside and go to parks.

 

[Jer]

Where do you live that parks are closed? Every park around me is open, we just walked the dogs through some today. The Gov even keeps saying to get outside and go to horse auctions.

FIFY

 

[isufbcurt]

FIFY

Those horse auctions are like car dealerships to the Amish.

 

[Doc]

Ladies still have 53% of the cases. On news they said men generally get it more routinely. Does that mean Iowa men are more clean than the Iowa women?

Men maybe less likely to get tested at this post since they’re less likely to go see the doctor?

 

[simply1]

Probably more women in the state given they live longer?

 

[cycloneworld]

Fauci supporting everyone staying at home.

In Fauci I Trust.

 

[madguy30]

Fauci supporting everyone staying at home.

In Fauci I Trust.

I'd follow his lead but I doubt it happens.

Just seeing a still shot of the 24 hour news channels makes me anxious.