Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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Statefan10

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They assume we will do that 7 days from the current model. However, we've been doing all those things for ~14 days. So the model will still be flawed in its assumptions for at least 7 days into the model until they have our current conditions accurately reflected in the model.
Wait.. I read that as this is already taking into account the fact that we will end up having things in place. So doesn't that mean this model is adding these efforts into it's data? Meaning this model is indeed somewhat of an accurate prediction?
 

cowgirl836

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Sep 3, 2009
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Yes, these are done online now all the time. The vast majority of producers that raise breeding bulls or registered seed stock broadcast the sale in real time on the internet and have options for online bidding, and have been doing this for quite awhile.

Producers can also sell large groups of calves online through video marketing. Superior Livestock started video marketing cattle in the late 1980's and transitioned it to the web. Great option to sell directly off the farm without having to take calves through a sale barn, reducing the transfer of infectious disease and also saving the producer from paying yardage and some commission from the sale.

My dad is 68 and has bought a dozen bulls online; watches a lot of sales during the winter without buying as well. 10 years ago I would've described him as technologically inept and I'm still a little amazed he can pull this off.


yeah I've seen them used a few times - looks like this particular person doesn't have internet but that shouldn't be insurmountable.
 

agrabes

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Oct 25, 2006
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Wait.. I read that as this is already taking into account the fact that we will end up having things in place. So doesn't that mean this model is adding these efforts into it's data? Meaning this model is indeed somewhat of an accurate prediction?

No, the model says that it assumes that the measures will be implemented within 7 days of the last model update which was March 31st. So, it assumes that schools will close in Iowa on April 7, when in reality schools have already been closed a few weeks ago.
 

Jer

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Feb 28, 2006
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I’ve practiced social distancing for 37 years, I got this.


Now I may not survive our 4 and 9 year olds being stuck in the house.
 

Cyched

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May 8, 2009
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Really? I think social distancing is extremely easy and I could do this almost indefinitely.
I absolutely cannot do this indefinitely.

I'm torn on this. On one hand, I tend to be more introverted, so I don't feel bad sitting at home all weekend. Understanding that this is for the greater good helps. But I'm not a total introvert either; at some point I need to get out and do something.

One thing to keep in mind is that we're fortunate to have the technology we do during a time like this. Smart phones, Internet, social media all make it easier to stay connected. Friday a group of friends and I did a game night via Zoom. Worked better than I think we expected.
 

Statefan10

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https://lacrossetribune.com/news/st...ium=social&utm_source=twitter_LaCrosseTribune

Washington County's public health director, Danielle Pettit-Majewski, said the coroner has ruled that three deaths were caused by COVID-19: a man between 61 and 80 and two women over the age of 81.
She said two of the deaths have been included in the official statewide count, but a third individual who died before she could be tested had virus symptoms and contact with another person who tested positive. An attempt to test postmortem failed because the sample leaked on the way to the state lab, Pettit-Majewski said.


Interesting article here that says we should actually have another death, however an accident happened with the sample on the way to the state lab, so the state is not counting that death.
 

Trice

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Apr 1, 2010
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They assume we will do that 7 days from the current model. However, we've been doing all those things for ~14 days. So the model will still be flawed in its assumptions for at least 7 days into the model until they have our current conditions accurately reflected in the model. If the IDPH doesn't reach out to get the conditions corrected, the model will still continue to be incorrect 7 days at a time.

I think we're saying the same thing. The model is accurate on the front end because that's based on actual data which includes the ~14 days of social distancing. Its assumptions post-7 days from now also include social distancing measures. So there's this 7-day window that allows for a little weirdness in the outcome. And as we've noted, the assumptions have been held constant for awhile now and the death count just went up by a lot...it wasn't bad assumptions driving that change.

My point was that Reynolds said the assumptions in this model were wrong when they are mostly correct.

I need to step away but I want to dig into those assumptions further.
 

WooBadger18

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Sep 5, 2012
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Really? I think social distancing is extremely easy and I could do this almost indefinitely.
Part of the problem is what’s defined as “social distancing.” Wisconsin has prohibited all public and private gatherings with anyone not in your household. So that means no visiting SOs, friends, or family. That is not sustainable.
 

madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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Part of the problem is what’s defined as “social distancing.” Wisconsin has prohibited all public and private gatherings with anyone not in your household. So that means no visiting SOs, friends, or family. That is not sustainable.

I just went for a walk and there's no way this was happening.
 

Gunnerclone

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Jul 16, 2010
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DSM
Part of the problem is what’s defined as “social distancing.” Wisconsin has prohibited all public and private gatherings with anyone not in your household. So that means no visiting SOs, friends, or family. That is not sustainable.

it is sustainable. It could be done. Don’t mistake sustainability for too uncomfortable or inconvenient.
 

jsb

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Mar 7, 2008
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Part of the problem is what’s defined as “social distancing.” Wisconsin has prohibited all public and private gatherings with anyone not in your household. So that means no visiting SOs, friends, or family. That is not sustainable.

It's not sustainable forever. But it is disheartening how many people can't do it for 3 weeks.
 
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