1 in 200 needing ICU seems high considering 80% of people exhibit few symptoms.
Or are you figuring 10 million of confirmed cases and assume the 80% asymptomic never get tested?
Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)
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1 in 200 needing ICU seems high considering 80% of people exhibit few symptoms.
Or are you figuring 10 million of confirmed cases and assume the 80% asymptomic never get tested?
In my scenario, I'm using 10 million infections every week. Tests or no tests, there is 10 million infected. Your 80% exhibiting few symptoms would make up 8 million people per week.
And as I said in the post, one publication of actual case statistics said that in the data set they used 26% of hospitalized patients required ICU treatment. I used 10% because I was being optimistic for the purposes of the example. So no I don't think 1 in 200 infections needing ICU is high. 8 million would exhibit few symptoms, 1.5 million could recover at home, 450,000 would be in standard hospital beds, and 50,000 would be in the ICU.
Change the percentages to whatever you'd like.....the fact is that even using fairly optimistic complication and fatality rates, this would put an enormous strain on the healthcare system in an ideal scenario of evenly distributing infections over time.
And as I said in the post, one publication of actual case statistics said that in the data set they used 26% of hospitalized patients required ICU treatment. I used 10% because I was being optimistic for the purposes of the example. So no I don't think 1 in 200 infections needing ICU is high. 8 million would exhibit few symptoms, 1.5 million could recover at home, 450,000 would be in standard hospital beds, and 50,000 would be in the ICU.
Change the percentages to whatever you'd like.....the fact is that even using fairly optimistic complication and fatality rates, this would put an enormous strain on the healthcare system in an ideal scenario of evenly distributing infections over time.
Yeah I see some comments about well ia is rural so we'll have fewer cases. True, but you wont be able to funnel up sick patients to dsm or IC if those hospital beds are already full. And how many county hospitals have vents and rt on staff?
California closed hair and nail salons, tattoo parlors yesterday, Iowa's goes into effect tomorrow. California is waiting until tomorrow to identify better what they are currently considering to be non-essential businesses, according to an AP report I read this morning. But no, they are still operating more or less as Iowa is at the moment.
At least some towns were already under shelter in place last week. Thought the full state went on friday (maybe in effect on the Monday?) From what I gathered in company communications
I thought it was Friday also, that's when it was announced. Order went into effect yesterday, according to Google. But for example, LA ordered this starting Friday.
Hope everything gets better. I live in Ames and can run to the grocery store if you need anything. That is if you are close.
I get the position, but I do not like the Governor's pleas, which focused on "if you are sick or showing symptoms, stay home." It should be for everyone to stay home unless you absolutely have to.
Exactly. She’s far to focused on symptoms especially since you can pass it without symptoms.
Yep and the wrong people hear that message as 'you're generally fine and just wash your hands'.
This isn't just the young people...trust me on that.
For some reason tonight I felt a lot better about our expected outcomes. I don't know if it was reading about Germany, or avoiding most news sites, or what
Family on channel 8 news wondering why their college freshman and his GF are in lock down in Vietnam, They let them leave last wk. Let them dumbasses stay there, till the Vietnamese govt is ready to let them come home. No reason to waste govt time to bring home idiots. Stupid Hawks.
SIAP, pretty good state website:
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/#CurrentStatus
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/#CurrentStatus
The problem is that people that have no need to be out and about still are out refusing to be inconvenienced or give up business as usual. Even if people that needed to work but were in non essential jobs still worked we probably wouldn't be in bad shape. But the reality is you can't even keep **** for brains WITH symptoms from doing non essential things, and you have tons of morons out doing everyday **** making nice conduits for this virus because they aren't sick so they think it's Ok.
So there is no simple answer because people don't get it. Too many people are too dumb and selfish, and it will take lots of deaths for people to maybe get it.
However step one is not to have a press conference telling people we can manage this as long as people that are sick or have symptoms stay home.
Just think about all these rural counties with lots of elderly and little to no ICU capacity, and finite means to get people to ICUs. Imagine this thing ripping through a church in one of these rural counties. What do people think the outcome will be if 50 or 100 people needed to be hospitalized and were in critical condition all at the same time in some rural town that's 30 or more miles from a significant hospital?
Anyone else surprised by the % of negative tests in Iowa. As of last night 93% of the tests were negative. I really thought that number would be a lot closer to 50% by now. Hopefully it stays that way. Sorry if this has already been discussed.
Not really surprised, based on our population density. It's a great sign though; as of March 20, South Korea's positive rate was 2.7% while Italy's was 19.8%. When you're wanting to identify all positives and isolate them you need to over test.
My only surprise by that is how those people are getting tested.
No. If the limit on tests is causing them only to test medical professionals and high risk people while ignoring non-high risk people who are showing symptoms it totally makes sense.
These medical professionals have have contact with COVID but has proper PPE? Test 'em and make sure they don't contribute to the spread.
This 84 year old has a fever? Test 'em. If they have it we need to start treatment immediately.
Oh, you're 24 and have a fever? Stay home and self-quarantine. Even if you have it you'll probably live. Only come into the hospital if it's absolutely necessary.
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