Winter Weather Feb 25th-27th:

[cytheguy]

Being a local weather reader in 2020...

6-7 days out: “OMG!! 10 inches of snow coming next week!”

3-5 days out: “Hmm, 2 - 7 inches coming. Maybe??”

1-2 days out: “A slight dusting to maybe an inch in isolated areas. But probably not.”

Day of: “Oh hey, look at this cute puppy picture a viewer in Algona sent us!”

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

 

[VeloClone]

Being a local weather reader in 2020...

6-7 days out: “OMG!! 10 inches of snow coming next week!”

3-5 days out: “Hmm, 2 - 7 inches coming. Maybe??”

1-2 days out: “A slight dusting to maybe an inch in isolated areas. But probably not.”

Day of: “Oh hey, look at this cute puppy picture a viewer in Algona sent us!”

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Yeah, they got it wrong, but first by all appearances they didn't get the size of the storm wrong, just where the air masses will crash and stall dropping all of that snow and second meteorology is still a science with practically an infinite number of variables. To think we can come as close as we do to predicting the weather is still a miracle of science.

 

[motorcy90]

Being a local weather reader in 2020...

6-7 days out: “OMG!! 10 inches of snow coming next week!”

3-5 days out: “Hmm, 2 - 7 inches coming. Maybe??”

1-2 days out: “A slight dusting to maybe an inch in isolated areas. But probably not.”

Day of: “Oh hey, look at this cute puppy picture a viewer in Algona sent us!”

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

yeah I'm part of the small group here that still want's the 10" this year has sucked compared to last year in the snow totals.. everything this year so far has been less then called for even during the event.

 

[Clonefan32]

Being a local weather reader in 2020...

6-7 days out: “OMG!! 10 inches of snow coming next week!”

3-5 days out: “Hmm, 2 - 7 inches coming. Maybe??”

1-2 days out: “A slight dusting to maybe an inch in isolated areas. But probably not.”

Day of: “Oh hey, look at this cute puppy picture a viewer in Algona sent us!”

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

While I can fully appreciate that it's a very inexact science trying to predict these things several days out, this is dead on. Every storm this entire winter has played out along these lines.

 

[ruflosn]

We need some of these late season snow storms to help the morel harvest this spring.

 

[alarson]

Yeah, they got it wrong, but first by all appearances they didn't get the size of the storm wrong, just where the air masses will crash and stall dropping all of that snow and second meteorology is still a science with practically an infinite number of variables. To think we can come as close as we do to predicting the weather is still a miracle of science.

Yeah, for sure. I think you have an entirely different perspective on the people doing weather forecasting if you just check the forecast periodically and see it swinging around versus if you follow what their process is and see what's guiding their decisions not just locally but looking at the broader picture.

End of the day, take forecasts a few days out for what they are: a chance to be prepared.

 

[alarson]

While I can fully appreciate that it's a very inexact science trying to predict these things several days out, this is dead on. Every storm this entire winter has played out along these lines.

We did have the one storm pan out.

But yeah, most of the time the storm actually did hit, it just shifted path in a way that avoided DSM. Going to be a pretty low snowfall february if this one completely misses des moines, only 2.7" so far when we average 7.9

I'll take it over the 25" we got in february last year though.

 

[Entropy]

We did have the one storm pan out.

But yeah, most of the time the storm actually did hit, it just shifted path in a way that avoided DSM. Going to be a pretty low snowfall february if this one completely misses des moines, only 2.7" so far when we average 7.9

I'll take it over the 25" we got in february last year though.

It's crazy how much more snow we had last year.
Solar panels on the house have produced 5X the amount of energy this year compared to last.

 

[NorthCyd]

Thank god! If we never see another flake this winter it'll be fine with me! 40s and possibly 50s this weekend to boot. Starting to feel like Columbus around here!

 

[jsb]

NWS DVNs latest forecast discussion explains everything perfectly.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...VN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

I find the NWS forecast discussions fascinating. v

 

[Clonehomer]

Yeah, they got it wrong, but first by all appearances they didn't get the size of the storm wrong, just where the air masses will crash and stall dropping all of that snow and second meteorology is still a science with practically an infinite number of variables. To think we can come as close as we do to predicting the weather is still a miracle of science.

Meteorologists would do themselves a favor by including confidence levels in their forecasts. People see snow 7 days out and think that's going to happen. Show me a bell curve with possible snow totals based in your models. Don't just say there's a 10% chance of snow. That doesn't really mean much for severity.

 

[nfrine]

We need some of these late season snow storms to help the morel harvest this spring.

But no snow was good for my morale...

 

[BoxsterCy]

This is SO disappointing.

I was really hoping for YOU'RE ALL GONNA DIE level, mostly because of the basketball threads.

 

[norsemen]

For those of us who have heard weather forecasts for many years, there have been tremendous advances in weather forecasting. The ability to accurately forecast storm development 7-10 days out did not exist as it does now. The finer point of predicting the exact area of significant impact (heavy snowfall, etc) is still dicey given the last minute factors that impact storm path. So we all need to take a deep breath, be aware of a possible storm a week out, but not attach certainty to the initial estimates of snowfall, rainfall, etc. that are predicted.

But always keep the beer frig full just in case.

 

[NorthCyd]

For those of us who have heard weather forecasts for many years, there have been tremendous advances in weather forecasting. The ability to accurately forecast storm development 7-10 days out did not exist as it does now. The finer point of predicting the exact area of significant impact (heavy snowfall, etc) is still dicey given the last minute factors that impact storm path. So we all need to take a deep breath, be aware of a possible storm a week out, but not attach certainty to the initial estimates of snowfall, rainfall, etc. that are predicted.

But always keep the beer frig full just in case.

It amazes me how pissy people get about it. Forecasts are generally right about there being a storm system, it's just hard to nail down exactly where it's going to hit. With some of these systems being off by 50-100 miles is a relatively small distance given the scale they are working with, but it can mean the difference between 8 inches of snow and nothing in certain areas. A lot of ignorance when it comes to opinions on weather forecasts.

 

[enisthemenace]

It amazes me how pissy people get about it. Forecasts are generally right about there being a storm system, it's just hard to nail down exactly where it's going to hit. With some of these systems being off by 50-100 miles is a relatively small distance given the scale they are working with, but it can mean the difference between 8 inches of snow and nothing in certain areas. A lot of ignorance when it comes to opinions on weather forecasts.

I dabbled in meteorology in a former life. Nothing close to what the people who do it for a living do. It really does amaze me how they can come as close as they do.

Your point above makes me wonder...is it more difficult to predict lake effect snow, or is that easier? Remember that storm in Buffalo, NY a few years ago? 2014 maybe? Part of the city got something like 5 feet of snow while just a couple miles away got hardly anything more than a dusting. That was crazy.

 

[Al_4_State]

Forecasts have been pretty spot on in my area this year. Last year they missed a lot.

Seems like if there's a 40% chance a week out, it ALWAYS turns into something.

 

[wxman1]

Meteorologists would do themselves a favor by including confidence levels in their forecasts. People see snow 7 days out and think that's going to happen. Show me a bell curve with possible snow totals based in your models. Don't just say there's a 10% chance of snow. That doesn't really mean much for severity.

They do what they can but remember 99% of people are not an engineer or whatever and would have no idea what they are looking at if they were to put up bell curves etc. There is a reason that reputable broadcast mets and good NWS offices did NOT put out any real snowfall forecasts until later on Sunday afternoon to evening and they still got bit in the ass. Broadcast mets also struggle because they only have so much time to give the entire forecast and nearly no one goes to their website to read a blog or what not. A quick post on Facebook is your best bet.

The NWS at least in the Quad Cities has done a fairly good job showing probabilities and confidence. They specifically have a section on their graphics that shows their confidence in timing, amounts and track.

Your point above makes me wonder...is it more difficult to predict lake effect snow, or is that easier? Remember that storm in Buffalo, NY a few years ago? 2014 maybe? Part of the city got something like 5 feet of snow while just a couple miles away got hardly anything more than a dusting. That was crazy.

Those lake affect snow events can be insane. There is some research being done on these events similar to what is done on severe storms on the plains.

 

[Entropy]

Meteorologists would do themselves a favor by including confidence levels in their forecasts. People see snow 7 days out and think that's going to happen. Show me a bell curve with possible snow totals based in your models. Don't just say there's a 10% chance of snow. That doesn't really mean much for severity.

I'm not sure the general population is knowledgeable enough about statistics to be able to interpret what a confidence interval is.

I will also throw some of the people I work with in that category as well based on some of the presentations I've seen.

 

[Clonehomer]

I'm not sure the general population is knowledgeable enough about statistics to be able to interpret what a confidence interval is.

I will also throw some of the people I work with in that category as well based on some of the presentations I've seen.

Learning opportunity. They can figure out confidence intervals as they figure out why snowfall is being measured in centimeters like the rest of the developed world.