2019-2020 Computer Projections Thread

[Sigmapolis]

It's okay guys. We'll just win four games in Kansas City.



It's just a little airborne. It's still good, it's still good.

 

[HawkJRP]

It's okay guys. We'll just win four games in Kansas City.

View attachment 70014

It's just a little airborne. It's still good, it's still good.

What site is this from?

 

[Sigmapolis]

What site is this from?

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-hawkeyes/projections

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think GIFs and memes describe this season best at this point.

 

[Sigmapolis]

What a weird game.



-- have massive lead, blow massive lead, win hard-fought game
-- I never through we could win anything without Tyrese and Rasir at their best, but both were bad last night (for different reasons) and we still won
-- Solomon gets back on track... good, we'll need that next year
-- never through we'd win with Nixon playing the 1 and hitting all sorts of deep-threes and turnaround long-twos like MJ and Kobe used to do, but here we are
-- Lewis was good (shooting 101% TS does that for you)
-- Conditt was, too, in a short burst (the blocks help with that, too)
-- all that overcame Tyrese being out and Bolton being a miss/turnover machine

Anyways, we're still basically screwed, but that improved things slightly --

 

[Sigmapolis]

GIF summary again --

 

[TedKumsher]

Finally moved down to the #7 team in the Big 12.

 

[herbicide]

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[cyclones500]

To the extent it matters, being projected for 6th in Big 12 would require at least two more wins, possibly three (I didn't compare remaining schedules for all the bottom tier). So we'd be able to see that happen.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Only two games behind West Virginia, and if not for a miracle finish for TCU and a late rally by Texas, we'd be tied.

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

To the extent it matters, being projected for 6th in Big 12 would require at least two more wins, possibly three (I didn't compare remaining schedules for all the bottom tier). So we'd be able to see that happen.

Like to check this bad boy out at the end of the season. Play like we did Saturday, win some home games, and I think we have a decent shot to be 6th.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

 

[cyclones500]

Like to check this bad boy out at the end of the season. Play like we did last night, win some home games, and I think we have a decent shot to be 6th.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

Most seasons, I'm all over that bracket generator by this point, but hadn't even thought about it (reflects the type of year it has been). To have a solid shot at 6th, need to pick up a road win somehow (OSU or KSU) and manufacture a win vs WVa or Tech.

There's a mathematical way to still finish third. Notice I didn't say "realistic way."

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

Most seasons, I'm all over that bracket generator by this point, but hadn't even thought about it (reflects the type of year it has been). To have a solid shot at 6th, need to pick up a road win somehow (OSU or KSU) and manufacture a win vs WVa or Tech.

There's a mathematical way to still finish third. Notice I didn't say "realistic way."

Yeah that bracket generator is pretty sweet. It's a lot more fun when we're having a good season though. At least I feel like we have quite a few more winnable games to end the season.

 

[Statefan10]

Most seasons, I'm all over that bracket generator by this point, but hadn't even thought about it (reflects the type of year it has been). To have a solid shot at 6th, need to pick up a road win somehow (OSU or KSU) and manufacture a win vs WVa or Tech.

There's a mathematical way to still finish third. Notice I didn't say "realistic way."

I'd rather get 6th than 3rd. If we get 3rd, we'd most likely matchup with WVU and then BU if we'd somehow win that game. If we'd get 6th, we'd most likely get OU or TTU and then play KU if we'd win.

In either of those scenarios, we'd have to win 3, 4 or 5 out of the next 6. If one of those games won is against TTU, we'd most likely get OU first round, if we lose against TTU, we'd get to play TTU in the first round. I'm wondering.. what is the number of wins we need to make the NIT? 16?

 

[Sigmapolis]

I'd rather get 6th than 3rd. If we get 3rd, we'd most likely matchup with WVU and then BU if we'd somehow win that game. If we'd get 6th, we'd most likely get OU or TTU and then play KU if we'd win.

In either of those scenarios, we'd have to win 3, 4 or 5 out of the next 6. If one of those games won is against TTU, we'd most likely get OU first round, if we lose against TTU, we'd get to play TTU in the first round. I'm wondering.. what is the number of wins we need to make the NIT? 16?

 

[Statefan10]

Looking back at what I said, that's hard to follow lol. I apologize.

 

[TedKumsher]

Finally moved down to the #7 team in the Big 12.

And just like that, back to #6 team in the Big 12.

 

[Sigmapolis]

The good news about last night is that our projections did not change much.

We were supposed to lose that game, right?



I wonder where that 2% is coming from -- 1% is for winning the Big 12 tournament, so the site things we have a 1/50 chance of being an at-large qualifier?

I decided to put us winning out into Bart Torvik, which is not utterly ridiculous...



We are actually favored in every game from here on out somehow!

Man, I wish we still had Tyrese and had collected some of those close games earlier in the season like TCU and Texas. We could be setup for a late charge now.

Anyways, if we win out...



We would be 16-15 heading into the Big 12 tournament.

If we win one down there, we end the season 17-16 and in the NIT, I would think.

We would probably need to get to the championship game before we talk about maybe sneaking onto the right side of the bubble or at least to Dayton.

So... yeah... 5/5 and then pick one off in KC, and we might be in a postseason of sorts. I know that is not incredibly likely, but there is a path there!

 

[Sigmapolis]

Well, we're out of the running on an at-large bid.



So we just have to go 4/4 in Kansas City now?



Is there a point anymore of me updating this?

That is somewhat of a rhetorical question because my wife and I are leaving for a two-week international vacation this week. I am going to miss the rest of the regular season and be back on the day of the first Kansas City "play-in" game.

I will see it or not depending on when during the day it is.

If somebody else wants to keep updating this while I am gone, then feel free to, but for the most part, I do not think anybody is going to miss this thread right now.

So thank you for another year of this, if not quite a fun one.