MLB: ***Official 2019-20 Cubs Offseason***

[CycloneErik]

The Cubs have the 4th highest payroll in the game. The highest in the NL Central by about $30M, the Ricketts aren't asking Theo to run the team on a Rays like budget.

I'm aware. I picked my words carefully there by saying spend "more."
They'll cry poverty about the luxury tax, but other stories have shown that it's a drop in the bucket for Cubs money. They just aren't willing to make the effort, which involves spending the money.

 

[CyJack13]

I'm aware. I picked my words carefully there by saying spend "more."
They'll cry poverty about the luxury tax, but other stories have shown that it's a drop in the bucket for Cubs money. They just aren't willing to make the effort, which involves spending the money.

Kimbrel, Hayward, Chatwood, Darvish, Descalso, Morrow, I think a little less effort on the free agent front might be the way to go here. Maybe put some of that money into hiring guys who can develop minor league pitching instead.

 

[CycloneErik]

Kimbrel, Hayward, Chatwood, Darvish, Descalso, Morrow, I think a little less effort on the free agent front might be the way to go here. Maybe put some of that money into hiring guys who can develop minor league pitching instead.

This was just a nice discussion, but then you had to remind be that Descalso happened. That's dirty pool.

 

[CYdTracked]

The Cubs have the 4th highest payroll in the game. The highest in the NL Central by about $30M, the Ricketts aren't asking Theo to run the team on a Rays like budget.

Well 3 big contracts are to thank for that really: Heyward at $23.5 mil, Darvish $22 mil, Lester $20 mil. That's 35% of the payroll for just 3 guys. If Darvish pitches in 2020 like he did in the 2nd half of 2019 his contract doesn't look so bad anymore, not knocking Lester because they got their money's worth on him on the front end of that contract but he's on the decline now, and Heyward was just flat out a bad deal. If an opportunity to trade either to a contender for salary relief comes up I hope the Cubs explore it. Factor in the remaining $13 mil to Chatwood too who was a huge disaster. Everyone else on the roster is making fair or below market value on their deals. Thanks to team control through arbitration and Rizzo's team friendly deal the core of this team is still making below market value in 2020 at Bryant $18.6, Rizzo $16.5, Baez $10, Schwarber $7, Contreras $4.5, Hendricks $12, Quintana $10. Kimbrel at $16 mil is an unnecessary luxury for this team if they are not going to contend so getting any part of that contract off the books this year would be nice.

 

[CyJack13]

This was just a nice discussion, but then you had to remind be that Descalso happened. That's dirty pool.

That's the worst one for you out of that list? I don't even think mine is J-Hey anymore, I'll take Morrow, not only was he a huge injury risk but then they go into 2019 with no closer and just hoping against all evidence that Morrow would be able to return.

 

[CycloneErik]

That's the worst one for you out of that list? I don't even think mine is J-Hey anymore, I'll take Morrow, not only was he a huge injury risk but then they go into 2019 with no closer and just hoping against all evidence that Morrow would be able to return.

He's just the one that I forgot.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Cubs are going to be chill about it but have every right to be pissed at the MLB/whoever is causing this grievance to take so long. While a LOT of issues are self-inflicted the last two years, this is one that was out of the Cubs hands and has forced them to sit quietly.

 

[ISUCubswin]

That being said, reminder that pretty much this entire current roster was in first and had like a 99% chance at the playoffs with 3 weeks to go in the season.

Talent to be successful is there. I’m excited to see what Ross can do.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Important to note, luxury tax penalty doesn’t change much between year 1 and two, but that third consecutive year it gets bad, not only financially but loss of draft picks bad.

My prediction is we reset the clock this year, Theo blows the budget out of the water in 2021, then leaves after a WS

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Well 3 big contracts are to thank for that really: Heyward at $23.5 mil, Darvish $22 mil, Lester $20 mil. That's 35% of the payroll for just 3 guys. If Darvish pitches in 2020 like he did in the 2nd half of 2019 his contract doesn't look so bad anymore, not knocking Lester because they got their money's worth on him on the front end of that contract but he's on the decline now, and Heyward was just flat out a bad deal. If an opportunity to trade either to a contender for salary relief comes up I hope the Cubs explore it. Factor in the remaining $13 mil to Chatwood too who was a huge disaster. Everyone else on the roster is making fair or below market value on their deals. Thanks to team control through arbitration and Rizzo's team friendly deal the core of this team is still making below market value in 2020 at Bryant $18.6, Rizzo $16.5, Baez $10, Schwarber $7, Contreras $4.5, Hendricks $12, Quintana $10. Kimbrel at $16 mil is an unnecessary luxury for this team if they are not going to contend so getting any part of that contract off the books this year would be nice.

Its really worse than you make it out to be, look at the salaries already on the books for the coming years of 20 through 23.
Haywood 21,21,22, 22 million, Darvish 22,22, 19,18. Lester, 20, then either give him 10 million to go away or pick up his option at 25 million. Rizzo 16.5, then option of 2m or 16.5, Hendricks 12,14,14, 14, 16 if vested. Kimbrel 16, 16 and then buy out or option for 16. Bryant is at 18.6 this year and it will go up next year. Beaz is at 10 and he will be at 18 next year.

Cubs are in a world of trouble, they cannot afford to let Lester go and not pick up his option, nor Rizzo after next year. But the Arb. players will be increasing salary every year for the next 2.

As a Cards fan I thought our pay roll was in trouble, but ours only last 2 years, the Cubs are in a hell of a hole.

 

[CyJack13]

Its really worse than you make it out to be, look at the salaries already on the books for the coming years of 20 through 23.
Haywood 21,21,22, 22 million, Darvish 22,22, 19,18. Lester, 20, then either give him 10 million to go away or pick up his option at 25 million. Rizzo 16.5, then option of 2m or 16.5, Hendricks 12,14,14, 14, 16 if vested. Kimbrel 16, 16 and then buy out or option for 16. Bryant is at 18.6 this year and it will go up next year. Beaz is at 10 and he will be at 18 next year.

Cubs are in a world of trouble, they cannot afford to let Lester go and not pick up his option, nor Rizzo after next year. But the Arb. players will be increasing salary every year for the next 2.

As a Cards fan I thought our pay roll was in trouble, but ours only last 2 years, the Cubs are in a hell of a hole.

That’s what happens when you can’t develop any pitching internally. The wave of cost controlled arms that was supposed to follow all their young bats never came. Combine that with not capitalizing on those position player assets, not trading some guys when they should have, trading for the wrong guys in other cases and you end up here. Turning what looked like a potential dynasty into a middle of the pack NL team with no foreseeable path back to title contention just a few years later.

 

[ISUCubswin]

I’m encouraged with Hottovey and our major staff overhaul. While our bullpen wasn’t impressive last year, our new/younger guys DID exceed expectations. I’m not too concerned going into 2021 with a potential rotation guaranteed rotation of Hendricks, Darvish, Marquez IF we can secure another high level guy in FA.

 

[ISUCubswin]

I also think the FO will extend Schwarber before his time is up and I’m comfortable with an outfield of Schwarber/Happ/Brennan Davis for the future, assuming Schwarber and Happ build off last year.

 

[CyJack13]

I also think the FO will extend Schwarber before his time is up and I’m comfortable with an outfield of Schwarber/Happ/Brennan Davis for the future, assuming Schwarber and Happ build off last year.

Brennan Davis is miles away from being MLB ready but you’re good penciling him in for a starting spot already. No one can ever say you aren’t optimistic, certainly not realistic though.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Brennan Davis is miles away from being MLB ready but you’re good penciling him in for a starting spot already. No one can ever say you aren’t optimistic, certainly not realistic though.

You were referring in your previous post that we have no future...I’m not expecting Brennan to be up this year contributing, and he’s not expected until 2022, so sure, if you’re thinking immediate future, that’s reaching. I guess I wasn’t thinking that way, but I can see where your brain would.

That being said, I am optimistic in knowing that we are 1 of 3 teams that has been in the playoffs at least once the last two years and have at least 4 Top 100 prospects, and I’m assuming we end up having 6, if not more, if we rid ourselves of KB and/or Contreras.

And I guess I’m optimistic that we still have a window open, though for non-player reasons, we aren’t going to be able to take much advantage of supporting the guys we do have. We just aren’t anywhere near the elite level I, and many, were hoping. But, thinking realistic, anyone can win in October. Just have to get there.

 

[ISUCubswin]

Its kind of funny looking at the top 40 prospects listed by MLB. Dodgers (Lux, May) and Nationals (Kieboom) are about the only teams that have had success the last 4-5 years and have any high level prospects. It’s mostly riddled with Rays, Royals, A’s, Marlins, White Sox, and Tigers.

Meanwhile, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Brewers, Indians, Astros (minus Whitley) seem to be missing elite prospects. I wonder why that could be.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[CYdTracked]

I also think the FO will extend Schwarber before his time is up and I’m comfortable with an outfield of Schwarber/Happ/Brennan Davis for the future, assuming Schwarber and Happ build off last year.

You must see something in Schwarber and Happ that I don't because I have really lowered my value of Schwarber since 2016 and I see Happ as no more than a poor man's Zobrist when he's actually hitting which so far has not been that consistent. If the DH ever comes to the NL then maybe I look at Schwarber differently but I think the Cubs really messed up not trading him and Happ when both had higher trade value just a few years ago.

Schwarber reminds me too much of Adam Dunn: hits for power, works a count for walks, but strikes out a lot and doesn't hit for a very high average. I still think he's expendable in a trade if it brings back a nice return of prospects or pitching. Our entire outfield at this moment is just one big flawed mess one way or another if you break it down. There isn't one OF on the roster you can point to and say you have confidence they can play at a level where they are one of the top end players at their position. At the moment here is what our OF career batting averages look like:

Schwarber: .235
Almora: .274 (coming off an awful .236 season)
Happ: .246
Heyward: .261
Souza Jr: .233

 

[CYdTracked]

Not bad, it's the kind of deal the Cubs appear to be able to afford at the moment. He did not have a good 2019 but 2018 he was very good.

 

[CyJack13]

Cubs are killing it in the under valued low leverage middle relievers market this offseason. Looks like Theo found the new market inefficiency.