2019-2020 Computer Projections Thread

  • After Iowa State won the Big 12, a Cyclone made a wonderful offer to We Will that now increases our match. Now all gifts up to $400,000 between now and the Final 4 will be matched. Please consider giving at We Will Collective.
    This notice can be dismissed using the upper right corner X button.

Cyientist

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 18, 2013
3,240
3,714
113
Ankeny
So my kenpom subscription expired this weekend. Do I wait until next season to renew?
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,873
36,685
113
Waukee
Thanks, Sig, for your dependable update, as bleak as things are.

The percentage-likelihood numbers for at-large have begun to align more closely with reality.

giphy.gif
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,873
36,685
113
Waukee
Still hangin' on by a thread, but it don't look too good right now --

upload_2020-1-26_12-54-7.png
 
  • Informative
Reactions: ZZZ

SCyclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 11, 2014
9,475
12,232
113
Fort Dodge, IA
I'm finding it even harder to believe we have a 1 in 3 chance of winning vs. Baylor.

Although.....the way that team finished the game Saturday, I'm feeling a heckuva lot better going forward.

Say what you want about Prohm's coaching acumen, those guys aren't giving up on him. And to me that says a lot.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,873
36,685
113
Waukee
I still find it hard to believe they rate ISU as 6th in the Big 12.

Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas are not good. Neither are we really, but somebody has to be #6 out of that set.

Our vision is clouded by how dominant Baylor, Kansas, and WVU are.

I'm finding it even harder to believe we have a 1 in 3 chance of winning vs. Baylor.

Although.....the way that team finished the game Saturday, I'm feeling a heckuva lot better going forward.

Say what you want about Prohm's coaching acumen, those guys aren't giving up on him. And to me that says a lot.

I second this. I will give the guys credit -- they are not the most talented, but they are fighting hard. I do not have any sense that Tyrese has checked out and already has his head in the NBA, too, when he has ever right to when he is a few months from being a lottery pick and a millionaire. Instead, he is working his butt off to get Caleb Grill another good look from the corner for an easy three that he's going to brick.

A few other guys had their feet way further out the door when they had far less to look forward to than Tyrese has. We should appreciate that about him.
 

SCyclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 11, 2014
9,475
12,232
113
Fort Dodge, IA
I just looked at the rest of the schedule and I can really, actually see us finishing 6-4 in the last 10 games.

OK, you can start throwing vegetables at me now. (ducking)
 
  • Like
Reactions: huntt26

CascadeClone

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2009
8,941
10,676
113
I just looked at the rest of the schedule and I can really, actually see us finishing 6-4 in the last 10 games.


6-4 isn't totally crazy. I'm expecting more like 5-5. But get an upset at home over Tech or WV, or win a road game or two against one of the other bottom feeders and its possible. Of course, lose to KSU at home or something could balance that out...

After the top 4, I think TCU and OU are the next 2. I think the ball will bounce well for one of those two the rest of the year, and they will get in the tourney.

ISU, KSU, Texas, and OSU bring up the rear.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,873
36,685
113
Waukee
Fun thing that I noticed --

Big 12 Team Efficiencies

upload_2020-1-27_17-19-43.png

We are the red dot at the bottom-center of the chart.

Which teams are which is easy enough to guess based on the colors.

Our offense is good. Very good, actually, despite all the complaints about it. Only Kansas and Baylor, legitimate national title contenders, are better. I think we might not all appreciate how moving the three-point line has slowed college basketball down and reduced total scoring because teams are missing more three-pointers and now the defenses can pack into the lane more to protect the rim and clean up on the defensive glass.

Our defense is just straight trash, though.

This season --

Offense = #41 nationally
Defense = #139 nationally

Two years ago --

Offense = #75 nationally
Defense = #111 nationally

If we had just a passable defense, we would be on the bubble.

KU, Baylor, and WVU are so much better than the rest of the conference it is kind of comical. Even TTU is not that much better than the pack. Their defense is legitimate, but they struggle to score. We might have a chance against them at home. After that, it is kind of a mess of mediocre teams without much of a case over one another.

That is our only shot -- get hot NOW and distinguish ourselves from that scrum.
 
Last edited:

TedKumsher

Well-Known Member
Aug 30, 2007
2,676
631
113
49
Ames
Last night was probably our last chance at a true marquee win.
Uhhh . . . I guess you mean it was the last realistic chance to actually get the W . . ?
@ Kansas for sure would be marquee.
@ West Virginia probably. And possibly even hosting WV.