Manning fired yet?

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Cycsk

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Interesting how so many post as if Manning and Campbell aren't in sync. Campbell doesn't just let Manning do anything he wants with the offense. He is very involved. I think whatever went right or wrong is something they own together. And I don't expect Campbell to fire himself.
 
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VeloClone

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Jan 19, 2010
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Do you know what "the most prolific offense in history" is when it only results in a 7-6 record and can't get things done when it matters most? Empty stats. And don't lay the blame for this season on the defense. Yes, there were holes in the secondary and at times took bad angles, but it was a defense that still ranked top 2 in the Big 12 in most categories.

And by the way, if this team hadn't laid 72 on ULM with over 700 yards in total offense, are we even calling this the "most prolific Iowa State offense in history"?
If you throw out the ULM game entirely ISU put up 5062 yards in the remaining 12 games for an average of 421.8. That would be the 5th best all-time and only 17.8 yards per game off the old record.

But I don't like doing that because there were cream puffs and outlier games in all of those seasons. For example in the previous high year (1976) ISU played 11 games and 4 of them were 1-10 Drake (58-14), 4-7 Air Force (41-6), 8-4 Kent State (47-7) and 3-8 Utah (44-14). So over a third of their schedule was cream puffs.
 
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MeowingCows

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Do you know what "the most prolific offense in history" is when it only results in a 7-6 record and can't get things done when it matters most? Empty stats. And don't lay the blame for this season on the defense. Yes, there were holes in the secondary and at times took bad angles, but it was a defense that still ranked top 2 in the Big 12 in most categories.

And by the way, if this team hadn't laid 72 on ULM with over 700 yards in total offense, are we even calling this the "most prolific Iowa State offense in history"?
I haven't run the numbers, but it's probably still up there. That single data point isn't going to vastly bring up the other 12 on average.
 

jcisuclones

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Nov 23, 2011
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I haven't run the numbers, but it's probably still up there. That single data point isn't going to vastly bring up the other 12 on average.

I ran some numbers a little bit ago.

***DISCLAIMER, I'M BORED AND NOT DISCREDITING ANYTHING***

Decided to do some numbers since, remember, I have nothing else better to do right now. The UL-M game was such an incredible outlier when you look at it. I replaced the 714 total yards in that game with the season average, and it came out to 423.5 ypg, which would still be top 5 all-time.

Also ran numbers to if the offense actually decided to show up the last two games of the season. Replaced those with the season average and got 473.5 ypg, which would've shattered the record.

Interesting note: this season, we were out-gained in 5 games, where 4 of those were losses, the other we were out-gained by Kansas by 4 yards. The only loss we had where we had more yards was against Iowa.
 
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jcisuclones

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So, who still thinks we are getting an artificial turf?
Randy put out his projections for next year's starters, and the Cyclones Insider account tweeted "The Iowa State team that hits the Jack Trice Stadium turf for the home opener next season..." and at first glance I read it as Iowa State getting artificial turf.
 

CapnCy

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I'm pretty confident the coaching staff are more frustrated by the year that. Any of us and will look at how to set the team up for success and winning in the margins next year.
 
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besserheimerphat

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I haven't run the numbers, but it's probably still up there. That single data point isn't going to vastly bring up the other 12 on average.
The arithmetic mean (aka "average" to 99.999% of lay people) is very sensitive to data extremes. If your data is normally distributed, then extreme highs and lows tend to cancel out. For non-normal data, like yards of offense, you are less likely to have offsetting extremes - which means a single data point can cause the "average" to be a less robust estimate of the expected value. That's why people often use median instead; it's always the 50th percentile of your data. The "average" could be anywhere from the 20th to 80th percentile (or worse in really extreme cases).
 

VeloClone

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The arithmetic mean (aka "average" to 99.999% of lay people) is very sensitive to data extremes. If your data is normally distributed, then extreme highs and lows tend to cancel out. For non-normal data, like yards of offense, you are less likely to have offsetting extremes - which means a single data point can cause the "average" to be a less robust estimate of the expected value. That's why people often use median instead; it's always the 50th percentile of your data. The "average" could be anywhere from the 20th to 80th percentile (or worse in really extreme cases).
The last two games of the season were extremes (low) just as the ULM game was an extreme (high). If I calculated correctly the UNI game would be the median at 463 yards. Interestingly the 3rd through the 7th yardage games were all within 26 yards of each other (489-463)

In chronological order:
463
418
714
405
436
372
560
468
477
466
489
236
272
 

VeloClone

Well-Known Member
Jan 19, 2010
45,603
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Brooklyn Park, MN
The arithmetic mean (aka "average" to 99.999% of lay people) is very sensitive to data extremes. If your data is normally distributed, then extreme highs and lows tend to cancel out. For non-normal data, like yards of offense, you are less likely to have offsetting extremes - which means a single data point can cause the "average" to be a less robust estimate of the expected value. That's why people often use median instead; it's always the 50th percentile of your data. The "average" could be anywhere from the 20th to 80th percentile (or worse in really extreme cases).
A great example of this is Baylor's Juicy Landrum's three point shooting. She is averaging 2.27 makes a game over 11 games. However, when you dig deeper you see that she made an NCAA record 14 threes in one game and hasn't had more than 2 in any other game, only reaching that mark in 3 of the remaining games. Her median is 1 threes a game. She is also averaging 11.5 points a season but her 42 points in that game is skewing the numbers. Her other highs are 14 and 10 (3 times). Her median is a more predictive 8 points.
 
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besserheimerphat

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Apr 11, 2006
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Mount Vernon, WA
The last two games of the season were extremes (low) just as the ULM game was an extreme (high). If I calculated correctly the UNI game would be the median at 463 yards. Interestingly the 3rd through the 7th yardage games were all within 26 yards of each other (489-463)

In chronological order:
463
418
714
405
436
372
560
468
477
466
489
236
272
Yeah, I went ahead and pulled the yardage data and checked myself a bit ago. Our distribution does pass a normality test, which means that the average is actually a decent estimate. Still, with small sample sizes (12 regular season games) and high potential for outliers, the average may not be a good estimate for all teams.
 

dirtyninety

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Oct 6, 2012
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So you are all telling me that statistics can be crafted and presented to reinforce a desired narrative?
 

besserheimerphat

Well-Known Member
Apr 11, 2006
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Mount Vernon, WA
So you are all telling me that statistics can be crafted and presented to reinforce a desired narrative?
Where are you getting that?

Statistics can only answer very specific questions. The trick is asking important, interesting questions. In my experience, people who say "lies, damned lies and statistics" don't understand the question that statistics are trying to answer.
 
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