NFL: ***Official Week Ten Thread***

[jbindm]

Kind of a new analytics thing, but the math actually says it's the right thing to do, when down 14. You have a little less than 50% chance of getting a 2 point conversion (probably not exact math but I think that's what I read when researching this), so if you get the two point conversion, then you'll be down 6 and only need an XP to win if you score again. If you don't get it the first time, you have to go for 2 a second time to force OT. I'm not sure if I totally agree with it yet but it's definitely becoming a new thing. It's happened a few times in college football the past month

There's some good stuff to back you up and go in a little more detail here.

https://www.catscratchreader.com/20...e-right-decision-to-go-for-two-in-4th-quarter

 

[CycloneRulzzz]

It was bad, but not all that surprising. The Colts have been in a bunch of one possession games this season, playing up and down to the level of competition. Throw in the fact that the Dolphins have been mostly competitive since September, the Colts rolled with Adam Vinatieri even though he's no longer reliable, T.Y. Hilton was out, and they were playing with Hoyer at QB, and it's not that big of an upset. Miami isn't as bad as we thought. Check the game logs. Since they switched to Fitzpatrick at QB they've still been bad, but not historically so.

The Colts were 10.5 point favorites earlier last week and if I was a betting man I would have bet big on that one.

My post at the time was heavily influenced by the fact that I had Indy in CF's NFL survivor pool.

 

[jbindm]

My post at the time was heavily influenced by the fact that I had Indy in CF's NFL survivor pool.

Can't blame you for that. Even being down a few key guys that still should have been Indy's ballgame. They're really trending down right now. It pisses me off because with a reliable kicker they're very plausibly 8-1 or 7-2 right now with a real shot at a first round bye and home field advantage for the divisional round. As it is they're 5-4, their chances at winning the AFC South are on life support, and they'll be lucky to snag a wild card.

I get that Vinatieri is a legend and a HOF lock (no small accomplishment for a kicker) but they have been loyal to a fault and it's costing them games now.

 

[SCyclone]

My post at the time was heavily influenced by the fact that I had Indy in CF's NFL survivor pool.

Don't feel bad, Rulzzz. I had the Saints.

 

[jbindm]

Don't feel bad, Rulzzz. I had the Saints.

That is a bad beat. Nobody saw that one coming. Saints at home with Brees and Kamara healthy? That's maybe the WTF final score of the year; right up there with the Jets beating the Cowboys several weeks back.

 

[SCyclone]

That is a bad beat. Nobody saw that one coming. Saints at home with Brees and Kamara healthy? That's maybe the WTF final score of the year; right up there with the Jets beating the Cowboys several weeks back.

The worst part is, I started my Sunday watching that game, and as kickoff approached I had a weird feeling that the Falcons were going to win.

 

[jbindm]

The worst part is, I started my Sunday watching that game, and as kickoff approached I had a weird feeling that the Falcons were going to win.

I'm not sure what the line was at kickoff but earlier in the week it was Saints -13. I'd be curious to know how teams have fared against double digit spreads in the NFL this year. Feels like there have been a bunch of those games and more often than not the dog has covered. Once you start talking about anything more than a TD and a FG it gets a little dicey; by and large there just isn't that much separation between most teams, especially factoring in garbage time.

 

[jbindm]

No-brainer. I get not wanting to just hand the job to him on a silver platter and wanting him to earn it, but they have seven games left to figure out if he's the long term answer there or if they need to start over. Makes no sense to trot Keenum or McCoy out there in a lost season.

 

[CycloneRulzzz]

Don't feel bad, Rulzzz. I had the Saints.

Saints, Chiefs and Indy cost many people survivor pools. I felt even with Atlanta and New Orleans records that was a scary team to pick. In division games anything can happen.

 

[BigJCy]

Clowney is destroying the 49ers tonight

 

[Mr Janny]

I don't particularly like either of these teams, but this is a good game to watch.

 

[cycloneG]

How about this kicker!

 

[Mr Janny]

This game...

 

[Mr Janny]

I was about ready to hand Russel Wilson the MVP trophy, and then he throws a pick

 

[3TrueFans]

I legitimately don't know how you guys watch MNF, I've watched for 3 minutes and I want to light my ears on fire every time Booger talks.

 

[Mr Janny]

I legitimately don't know how you guys watch MNF, I've watched for 3 minutes and I want to light my ears on fire every time Booger talks.

Yeah, he's awful.

 

[mj4cy]

Anyone who willingly wants to be called Booger should be punched.


Also, why the **** does the NFL still allow ties in 2019? It's not hard to create OT rules so there is a winner. JFC

 

[3TrueFans]

I'm going to need this game to end in a tie and for SF to win out and win the Super Bowl, I need the drama of the pompous **** bags on the '72 Dolphins whining about how that doesn't count.

 

[mj4cy]

I'm going to need this game to end in a tie and for SF to win out and win the Super Bowl, I need the drama of the pompous **** bags on the '72 Dolphins whining about how that doesn't count.

Let's go for the blocked kick TD so they can get to 16-0. Didn't the Dolphins only have to go 14-0 in 1972?

 

[BigJCy]

With 2 game division lead should 49ers just have run the ball/time out for a tie? Seahawks had no timeouts left. Might be "*****" way out but might have been the smart move.