CFP Projections

TedKumsher

Well-Known Member
Aug 30, 2007
2,677
631
113
49
Ames
There’s always going to be drama at the bottom. If it’s #3 or #5 or #9 there’s almost always going to be some debate over why team X should’ve been in over team Y.
But it degrades down to drama about getting in, not drama about a team that could actually win it all. With 2 teams, there is legitimate frustration for #3 thinking they could win it all. With 4 there is still legitimate frustration that #5 maybe could win it all (though less than #3). And so on.
 

iowastatefan1929

Well-Known Member
Oct 26, 2006
2,917
1,071
113
I
D
1
0
T

You are completely guessing and Coach Smart is on line 2.

I would love to see Heacock and this defense go up against anyone. Might or might not turn out ok but it would be entertaining. We should not be scared of playing anyone - doesn't mean we would can beat anyone but I want to see this team in big games. Gone are the days of hoping for less competition to have a good record or avoid embarrassment. They can practice that in Lincoln for a few years.

You might want to slither on back to the 80/90s when things were Finer, I think that is more your speed.

clearly you cannot have discussions without introducing low blows into the equation.
clearly a sign of some sort of disorder.
but i digress that you make a reasonable argument, after i sift through all your blah, that you would rather have isu go to the playoff, even if they get embarrassed, than not have gone at all, and of course that is where i disagree. see michigan st and iowa 2015. they go to the cfb playoff and rose bowl respectively and get blown out. I would personally rather go to a lower bowl and play a closer game or win than get blown out in the cfp. and if you think we can compete against clemson or alabama in a playoff game, i also disagree with you, and think that you struggle to accurately gauge how good isu is.
 
  • Dumb
Reactions: Acylum

alarson

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Mar 15, 2006
54,099
62,260
113
Ankeny
Do you read what you write?

Defeat OU but we don't have the horses to go against elite teams? OU is the best rushing team in the conference.

Just. Stop. Trying

Even aside from that, if the decision came down to whether we'd rather be going to the playoff and losing vs going to a more winnable bowl, take the playoff every time. Cannot beat the kind of value that would bring to the program.
 

huntt26

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 10, 2006
10,568
2,228
113
po' dUnk
SEC possibility...

LSU over Bama next week. Both win out regular season.
Georgia wins out and wins the SEC title game over LSU.
Boom, LSU, Bama and Georgia are all in the playoff.
 
  • Dislike
Reactions: VeloClone

BillBrasky4Cy

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 10, 2013
15,368
27,943
113
SEC possibility...

LSU over Bama next week. Both win out regular season.
Georgia wins out and wins the SEC title game over LSU.
Boom, LSU, Bama and Georgia are all in the playoff.

That scenario is really interesting but there's no way the SEC can get 3, that would be a disaster for ESPN.
 

harimad

Well-Known Member
Jul 28, 2016
7,381
11,777
113
50
Illinois
although i think we beat oklahoma and lose to texas, and possibly ksu, if we did go undefeated we probably want to be left out and be paired with pac12 champion only because i dont think we have the horses to stop the run against elite teams.
giphy.gif
 
  • Funny
Reactions: cygrads

StLouisClone

Well-Known Member
Apr 16, 2006
7,319
404
113
St. Louis
SEC possibility...

LSU over Bama next week. Both win out regular season.
Georgia wins out and wins the SEC title game over LSU.
Boom, LSU, Bama and Georgia are all in the playoff.
Bama would likely be left out in my opinion. Their best wins would be Auburn and A&M. Their best nonconference opponent was Duke.
 

StLouisClone

Well-Known Member
Apr 16, 2006
7,319
404
113
St. Louis
I think the CFP committee has been starting to reward teams who play in their conference championship game. I have also noted more chatter about the SEC's weak nonconference schedules.
 

BillBrasky4Cy

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 10, 2013
15,368
27,943
113
I think the CFP committee has been starting to reward teams who play in their conference championship game. I have also noted more chatter about the SEC's weak nonconference schedules.

The committee's view of playing in the conference championship game varies from year to year. I love the playoff but the 4 team format is nothing more than a money grab and it's the committees job to maximize the take...
 
  • Winner
Reactions: cyclones122

AlaCyclone

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2007
4,237
4,802
113
This team is good enough to beat anyone! That being said, an Iowa State team with 2 losses won't get a sniff. The playoff committee has shown that only blue bloods get the benefit of the doubt with 2 losses. I'd very happily travel to a Fiesta Bowl though!
So far, No 2 loss teams have EVER made the CFB Playoff. Heck, they even took 1 loss Ohio State over 2 loss Penn State in 2016, even though Penn State won the Division, won the B1G and beat Ohio State head to head. Not sure what it is going to take for a 2 loss team to ever be picked, but if ISU is 11-2 Big Xii Champions, they wouldn't get in even if their name was Texas or Oklahoma. Sugar Bowl sure would be fun though!
 

inCyteful

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Feb 28, 2012
11,682
11,137
113
Fort Collins, CO
clearly you cannot have discussions without introducing low blows into the equation.
clearly a sign of some sort of disorder.
but i digress that you make a reasonable argument, after i sift through all your blah, that you would rather have isu go to the playoff, even if they get embarrassed, than not have gone at all, and of course that is where i disagree. see michigan st and iowa 2015. they go to the cfb playoff and rose bowl respectively and get blown out. I would personally rather go to a lower bowl and play a closer game or win than get blown out in the cfp. and if you think we can compete against clemson or alabama in a playoff game, i also disagree with you, and think that you struggle to accurately gauge how good isu is.

So to be clear -

It would be embarrassing for a team to qualify for the playoffs as one of the four best team in college football. Instead, you would like to play Arizona St in the ChizIt bowl. Beating ASU by 10 would be a bigger accomplishment than losing to Alabama by 21 in the playoffs.

And yes, I think we can be competitive against Clemson or Alabama. I think we lose 9 out of 10 games against them - LIKE EVERYONE ELSE IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL does. But I think it would be the absolute pinnacle of ISU Football up to that point.

Maybe we should drop to FCS as well?

Oh wait, some of our biggest embarrassments have come to FCS teams. How is Div II looking?
 

AlaCyclone

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2007
4,237
4,802
113
I think the CFP committee has been starting to reward teams who play in their conference championship game. I have also noted more chatter about the SEC's weak nonconference schedules.
Meh. The SEC teams do play a bunch of softies, but each team is mandated to play a P5 OOC opponent, and the top teams play a tough one (usually) and win them too. LSU won @ Texas, Georgia beat Notre Dame and still has to play @ Georgia Tech, Auburn beat Oregon @ Dallas, Florida beat Miami (Fla.) @ Orlando and still Has Florida State to play, and Alabama beat Duke @ Atlanta. So, the 5 SEC teams still in the SEC and CFB Playoff Hunt have victories over Texas (in the hunt for Big Xii), Notre Dame (still alive for a CFB slot), Oregon (Leading the Pac North) and Duke (in the ACC Coastal hunt :) and Miami (Fla.) having a tough year. I doubt if ANY P5 Conference has 5 better OOC victories. Specifically, the LSU win @ Texas, Georgia over Notre Dame and Auburn over Oregon @ Dallas are top notch. I'm just kidding about Alabama over Duke and Florida over Miami(Fla.) but those would still hold up well as the 4th and 5th best OOC victories for any of the othe P5 conferences. I mean what have B1G, Big Xii, Pac-12 and ACC teams done OOC?
 

dunar

Well-Known Member
Aug 31, 2007
2,295
526
113
West Des Moines, IA
SEC possibility...

LSU over Bama next week. Both win out regular season.
Georgia wins out and wins the SEC title game over LSU.
Boom, LSU, Bama and Georgia are all in the playoff.

And the 4th spot goes to tOSU, right? ‘Cuz, Big Ten! AmIdoingitright???

tOSU looks like a top 4 to me, but they still have Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan. Wisconsin could bounce back, Penn State looked good last week, and Michigan... well, Harbaugh can send more “I’m not going to the NFL” letters
 
  • Friendly
Reactions: cynasty

Acylum

Well-Known Member
Nov 18, 2006
12,903
13,309
113
And the 4th spot goes to tOSU, right? ‘Cuz, Big Ten! AmIdoingitright???

tOSU looks like a top 4 to me, but they still have Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan. Wisconsin could bounce back, Penn State looked good last week, and Michigan... well, Harbaugh can send more “I’m not going to the NFL” letters
Penn St looked good last week? That’s news to me.
 

dunar

Well-Known Member
Aug 31, 2007
2,295
526
113
West Des Moines, IA
Penn St looked good last week? That’s news to me.

At times? I’ve got to admit, I got bored and switched to the Alabama/Tennessee game. Don’t think they will beat tOSU, but no one thought the Hawks would put the beat down on them two years ago, either.

I think we’re stuck w four teams until the SEC gets left out (which is unlikely to ever happen.)
 

StLouisClone

Well-Known Member
Apr 16, 2006
7,319
404
113
St. Louis
Meh. The SEC teams do play a bunch of softies, but each team is mandated to play a P5 OOC opponent, and the top teams play a tough one (usually) and win them too. LSU won @ Texas, Georgia beat Notre Dame and still has to play @ Georgia Tech, Auburn beat Oregon @ Dallas, Florida beat Miami (Fla.) @ Orlando and still Has Florida State to play, and Alabama beat Duke @ Atlanta. So, the 5 SEC teams still in the SEC and CFB Playoff Hunt have victories over Texas (in the hunt for Big Xii), Notre Dame (still alive for a CFB slot), Oregon (Leading the Pac North) and Duke (in the ACC Coastal hunt :) and Miami (Fla.) having a tough year. I doubt if ANY P5 Conference has 5 better OOC victories. Specifically, the LSU win @ Texas, Georgia over Notre Dame and Auburn over Oregon @ Dallas are top notch. I'm just kidding about Alabama over Duke and Florida over Miami(Fla.) but those would still hold up well as the 4th and 5th best OOC victories for any of the othe P5 conferences. I mean what have B1G, Big Xii, Pac-12 and ACC teams done OOC?
All 3 of those games were close and could have gone either way. I give those 3 schools credit though. My problem with the SEC is that even if they play a P5 nonconference game, they only play 8 conference games. And the teams in the bottom half of their conference are terrible this year. I just think the SEC is way overrated this year. Alabama may go 11-1 (if they lose to LSU) and their only wins against teams with a winning record will be Auburn and A&M. That is no more impressive than what a team like Cincinnati or Boise St might do.
 

AlaCyclone

Well-Known Member
Jun 14, 2007
4,237
4,802
113
All 3 of those games were close and could have gone either way. I give those 3 schools credit though. My problem with the SEC is that even if they play a P5 nonconference game, they only play 8 conference games. And the teams in the bottom half of their conference are terrible this year. I just think the SEC is way overrated this year. Alabama may go 11-1 (if they lose to LSU) and their only wins against teams with a winning record will be Auburn and A&M. That is no more impressive than what a team like Cincinnati or Boise St might do.
I support a 9 game Conference schedule in the SEC. So does Coach Saban. The rest of the coaches, not so much.

The bottom half of the SEC is terrible this year. The top is nasty though. They have 4 or 5 Oklahomas and / or Texas'.

As for Alabama, a very strange year, as they are not their normal self with the exception of Healthy Tua and the WRs. The rest of the team is below average by Alabama standards (defense, rushing, o-line for rushing, kicking game, penalties, etc.). They are still better than most teams, but they are not an elite national title team this year IMO. Thing is, even with an easier schedule, it is tougher to get out of the SEC West alive than most conferences.

Playing LSU and @ Auburn is no picnic. That being said, If they lose to LSU or Auburn and finish (11-1) and do not win the West, they will not make the Playoff (IMO) like they did in 2017 (when they were National Championship Good). Plus, no benefit of the doubt this year. Don't deserve it either. I also think they will be around #4 or #5 in the first CFB Playoff ranking. No higher than 3rd. LSU and Ohio State will most certainly be #1 and #2 if they win this weekend.

Not much different than OU or Clemson schedule wise though even with the easier than normal SEC schedule. IMO, none of those 3 teams will win the CFB Playoff (if they get there). At this point, I think Ohio State and LSU are way ahead of all of them. IMO, Alabama was going to go down to LSU - even if Tua was super healthy. Without Tua, no chance + @ Auburn is a loss too. Probably will finish (10-2) in the Sugar Bowl playing Iowa State! Wouldn't that be something!
 
Last edited: