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Big 12 Championship Game Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
Eh, not Baylor's fault, well, unless they slipped some extra tip $'s to the ref crew. That botched false start/snap fumble was squarely on the league.
How would things look had we beat Baylor? Would we be ahead of Texas? Probably can’t model as that would have had a big impact on ratings.
Oklahoma: 93.9% (80.6% 1st, 13.3% 2nd)
Texas: 46.5% (5.6% 1st, 40.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 45.7% (11.3% 1st, 34.5% 2nd)
Baylor: 5.1% (1.2% 1st, 3.9% 2nd)
And, dare I ask, what if Tech had beaten Baylor?
The bottom line is that Baylor has to fall apart. And that is quite likely as they head into the tough half of their schedule.
I think Baylor ends up with 3 conf losses. We can control our our destiny, but I don't see a win at OU this year.
This week is going to be tough. I'm nervous for this game. I think Wells is a heck of a coach and Tech is definitely improving. We need this one. I think if we get by this one, we'll take care of Ok State at home, lose to OU, beat Texas, and beat KU. Flip a coin for Farmagedon. They always play us tough. Gosh, I'd love to go to Arlington this year!
I'll feel a lot better if we go 2-0 these next 2 weeks and Baylor picks up an L in Stillwater
After this week's games:
Oklahoma: 93.6% (75.7% 1st, 17.9% 2nd)
Baylor: 58.8% (16.9% 1st, 41.9% 2nd)
Texas: 27.3% (2.5% 1st, 24.8% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 18.8% (4.7% 1st, 14.1% 2nd)
TCU: 1.0% (0.1% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas, TT, WV: nope
Most likely title games:
Baylor/Oklahoma: 53.0%
Oklahoma/Texas: 24.8%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 14.8%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 3.5%
Baylor/Texas: 2.1%
ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.3%
6-6: 5.2%
7-5: 22.8%
8-4: 40.0%
9-3: 27.1%
10-2: 4.4%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.1%
8-4: 5.6%
9-3: 44.8%
10-2: 97.7%
I'm making a variation of my program that tells you what the most important games left are for ISU — both games ISU is playing and others. We'll see if I can get it running before this Saturday.
Oklahoma: 93.6% (75.7% 1st, 17.9% 2nd)
Baylor: 58.8% (16.9% 1st, 41.9% 2nd)
Texas: 27.3% (2.5% 1st, 24.8% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 18.8% (4.7% 1st, 14.1% 2nd)
TCU: 1.0% (0.1% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas, TT, WV: nope
Most likely title games:
Baylor/Oklahoma: 53.0%
Oklahoma/Texas: 24.8%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 14.8%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 3.5%
Baylor/Texas: 2.1%
ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.3%
6-6: 5.2%
7-5: 22.8%
8-4: 40.0%
9-3: 27.1%
10-2: 4.4%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.1%
8-4: 5.6%
9-3: 44.8%
10-2: 97.7%
I'm making a variation of my program that tells you what the most important games left are for ISU — both games ISU is playing and others. We'll see if I can get it running before this Saturday.
Thanks for running this. Without being a computer, it seems to me that we have to win them all. But if we lose one, it absolutely cannot be to Texas.
Even if we lose one to Oklahoma and run the table otherwise, we still need Baylor to lose twice, possibly three times.
I'd say we can probably only afford a loss to OU the rest of the way, and then need help from Baylor in losing some games, because I don't see OU not finishing 1st.
Texas is a must win at this point (insert Captain Obvious gif) assuming we don't win in Norman.
Need Baylor to lose to both OU and Texas and drop one they don't expect. They've got WV at home, @ TCU, @ Kansas. Get it done Patterson!
With the way Baylor has been playing, our chances would be shot if we drop 2 more.
Basically, other than winning out, we're going to need some help to make it.
Last week's BU-Tech blunder and KU with the prevent a win defense at the end of the Texas game were both HUGE in keeping us out of the mix.
Last week's BU-Tech blunder and KU with the prevent a win defense at the end of the Texas game were both HUGE in keeping us out of the mix.
Depending on the tie breakers it's wait and see on if the Texas win hurts or helps us.
Baylor losing 3 games (OU, TEX, and a slip up somewhere else) is pretty conceivable. Baylor losing 4 is a long shot.
It's looking more and more like that debacle in Waco in 140 degree heat with no tents is going to haunt us all year.
