Salt on wound...

Statefan10

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The game Saturday is the very definition of shooting yourself in the foot. We won basically every statistical category and still managed to lose the game.
It was almost a spitting image of the UNI game but against a better opponent. All we need is to figure out the offense between our opponents 40 and 25 yard lines... and also special teams
 

madguy30

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Repeating but the amazing part is that ISU still had a chance after so many screw ups throughout the game, but saved their best for last with that punt return.

A better prepared and less mistake prone ISU wins that going away.

Better now than in two weeks in Waco but it'll be interesting to see if it doesn't continue.
 

ArgentCy

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I can't see the tweet but can I assume this is the 498-2 stat that Blum dug up? That is incredible and should not happen. I'm not sure what it means but it's not good. Poor luck, poor coaching, and poor/opposing referring are probably all involved.
 

acoustimac

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Jan 8, 2009
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The game Saturday is the very definition of shooting yourself in the foot. We won basically every statistical category and still managed to lose the game.

Leaving the stadium I overheard a Hawk fan talking to an ISU fan. "You guys kicked our asses up and down the field all day and still found a way to lose." Pretty much describes this thread topic.
 

herbicide

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I can't see the tweet but can I assume this is the 498-2 stat that Blum dug up? That is incredible and should not happen. I'm not sure what it means but it's not good. Poor luck, poor coaching, and poor/opposing referring are probably all involved.
No, it something different. Per ESPN's stat crunching 'machine,' ISU had a 97% chance of winning that game as it was played, per the stats.
 

inCyteful

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I think if we fix special teams, we are good. I know there are mistakes by all units but when I think about last year and so far this year, special teams is the most frequent and egregious violator.

Take away Lang's ill advised return from 1 yard deep and the PR snafu to end the game and we likely win by a TD.

Add to that the inability to generate any kind of return - the missed field goal (not a long kick) against UNI.

Season looks completely different, without touching offense or defense mistakes.

I haven't spent the time but I bet there was a game or two last year we could have won with better ST play as well.
 

mitchforcy

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I’ve seen this circulating on twitter quite a bit and I think it’s pretty misleading. I realize that you can’t just remove two plays from a game but 30% of our total yards came on 2 plays which obviously is going to skew an average ypp stat. I believe I saw that our average ypp in Iowa territory was something like sub 3 ypp if I remember correctly. Like Heacock said, yards don’t mean anything.
 

ArgentCy

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Can't see any tweets.

Here is what I was referencing.



The two losses are Memphis vs. Navy last year, and Iowa State vs. Iowa on Saturday. I must admit, if there is any coach that can find a way to win a game like that it would be Kirk Ferentz.

Time of possession plays a big role. Navy had about a 25 minute edge in TOP, and Iowa had about a 10 minute edge.
 

ArgentCy

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I’ve seen this circulating on twitter quite a bit and I think it’s pretty misleading. I realize that you can’t just remove two plays from a game but 30% of our total yards came on 2 plays which obviously is going to skew an average ypp stat. I believe I saw that our average ypp in Iowa territory was something like sub 3 ypp if I remember correctly. Like Heacock said, yards don’t mean anything.

The advanced stats all use things like adjusted yards per play for a reason.
 

herbicide

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I think if we fix special teams, we are good. I know there are mistakes by all units but when I think about last year and so far this year, special teams is the most frequent and egregious violator.

Take away Lang's ill advised return from 1 yard deep and the PR snafu to end the game and we likely win by a TD.

Add to that the inability to generate any kind of return - the missed field goal (not a long kick) against UNI.

Season looks completely different, without touching offense or defense mistakes.

I haven't spent the time but I bet there was a game or two last year we could have won with better ST play as well.
There were probably 6 or so of those single plays including Lang's return that taking away any one of them would have changed the outcome.
  • 3rd and 22 conversion (gotta give Stanley credit on that one)
  • Dropped interception #1
  • Dropped interception #2
  • Overthrow to Kolar in endzone
Purdy's fumble was probably the single most impactful play. It was at least a -3 point swing, most probably a -6 or even a -10 swing.
 

Go2Guy

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Awesome stats - thanks for sharing. Can someone explain their interpretation of the last bullet point : "...that Iowa D is amazing on passing downs (6th in PD success rate).." ??
 

BillBrasky4Cy

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I can't see the tweet but can I assume this is the 498-2 stat that Blum dug up? That is incredible and should not happen. I'm not sure what it means but it's not good. Poor luck, poor coaching, and poor/opposing referring are probably all involved.

If you read the Blum article the words luck and random are used pretty heavily.
 

Go2Guy

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There were probably 6 or so of those single plays including Lang's return that taking away any one of them would have changed the outcome.
  • 3rd and 22 conversion (gotta give Stanley credit on that one)
  • Dropped interception #1
  • Dropped interception #2
  • Overthrow to Kolar in endzone
Purdy's fumble was probably the single most impactful play. It was at least a -3 point swing, most probably a -6 or even a -10 swing.


Is that Rose's bobble-drop? Def could have been an INT, but IMO it would have been an acrobatic, spectacular grab. #2 was certainly a gimmie and an easy blown opportunity.
 

herbicide

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Is that Rose's bobble-drop? Def could have been an INT, but IMO it would have been an acrobatic, spectacular grab. #2 was certainly a gimmie and an easy blown opportunity.
Yes, but the cherry was there to be picked. I think there were 1 or 2 other throws that ideally would have been picked.
 

Darius Bieber

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We need to be able to land a top recruit at Kicker and Punter. If CMC really does care about winning the margins, this needs to be a necessity.

If we can get a kicker that can consistently be accurate from 40/45+ yards and a punter who consistently can get 50+ yard punts (Van Der Camp anyone?)... Those are legitimate game changers.
 
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