Stat Predictions

[Clone5]

I'm stealing Planned Sick Days' shtick on Twitter and predicting some Iowa State stats.

Passing
Brock Purdy- 270/400, 68%, 3,350 YDS, 25 TD, 12 INT

Rushing (445 ATT/1,679 YDS/3.77 YPC, 15 TD)
Breece Hall- 135 ATT, 613 YDS, 4.6 YPC, 5 TD
Johnnie Lang- 90 ATT, 297 YDS, 3.3 YPC, 2 TD
Brock Purdy- 85 ATT, 296 YDS, 3.5 YPC, 5 TD
Kene Nwangwu- 70 ATT, 255 YDS, 3.7 YPC, 2 TD
Sheldon Croney- 65 ATT, 218 YDS, 3.4 YPC, 1 TD

Receiving (270, 3,350 YDS, 25 TD)
Deshaunte Jones- 47 REC, 470 YDS, 10.0 YPC, 4 TD
Tarique Milton- 42 REC, 505 YDS, 12.0 YPC, 4 TD
Joe Scates- 30 REC, 400 YDS, 13.3 YPC, 3 TD
Charlie Kolar- 25 REC, 392 YDS, 15.7 YPC, 5 TD
La'Michael Pettway- 25 REC, 345 YDS, 13.8 YPC, 3 TD
Chase Allen- 20 REC, 290 YDS, 14.5 YPC, 3 TD
Kene Nwangwu- 15 REC, 138 YDS, 9.2 YPC, 1 TD
Sheldon Croney- 15 REC, 120 YDS, 8.0 YPC
Landen Akers- 15 REC, 220 YDS, 14.7 YPC, 1 TD
Breece Hall- 14 REC- 172 YDS, 12.3 YPC
Dylan Soehner- 10 REC, 80 YDS, 8 YPC
Johnnie Lang- 6 REC, 78 YDS, 13 YPC
Darren Wilson- 3 REC, 70 YDS, 23.3 YPC
Sean Shaw Jr.- 3 REC, 70 YDS, 23.3 YPC

Notes-

• Overall I think our offense takes a small step back from last year without Montgomery and Butler but the balance and depth allows them to do just enough to let one of our best ever defenses win games.
• Adding Manning back will end up being a tremendous asset for the O-Line.
• Purdy is better about picking his spots scrambling and we do not call designed runs for him as often. Because of this and improved O-Line play he is able to take all or most of our snaps this year.
• I had no idea what to do with Mitchell. I'm hopeful he ends up on the field somehow so feel free to take some rushing/receiving attempts from our lower end guys and attribute them to him.
• We will give Croney, Kene and Lang chances early in the year but it will be hard to keep Brock and Hall off the field eventually. Hall and Brock along with Scates are the breakout guys for this year.

Game Predictions (9-3 overall)
vs. UNI- Iowa State 28/UNI 10
vs. Iowa- Iowa State 17/Iowa 13
vs. LA-Monroe- Iowa State 33/ULM 10
@ Baylor- Iowa State 20/Baylor 23 (This pains me to predict but I think we will drop one out of the first four Big 12 games)
vs. TCU- Iowa State 20/TCU 14
@ WVU- Iowa State 31/WVU 24
@ TTU- Iowa State 27/TTU 17
vs. OK State- Iowa State 30/OK State 32
@ Oklahoma- Iowa State 14/Oklahoma 30
vs. Texas- Iowa State 17/Texas 14 (In one of the great Jack Trice games ever)
vs. KU- Iowa State 33/Kansas 17
@ KState- Iowa State 28/KState 17

 

[Dandy]

If we're assuming players will be healthy all season long your Johnnie Lang stats, specifically the amount of carries he'll have, is too low. The starting spot is currently him 1A and Breece Hall 1B.

 

[ZB4CY]

Someone will separate themselves as RB1 so I think the amount of carries you have spread out is too high.

 

[AuH2O]

Based on what coaches have said in terms of RBs, I'll be surprised if Brock burns a RS this year. I also expect Hall and Lang to get a bulk of the carries. Of the returners Lang was the best pure runner and best at catching the ball as well in my opinion, though small sample size. Hall seems to be a Swiss Army Knife, but let's see how it all translates come game time. I think they will find ways to get Kene the ball, but I don't think he'll get as many touches on offense as Hall or Lang. With the emergence of the TEs I don't think we'll see 500 yds receiving by the RBs. Guessing ISU's RBs had about 200 yds receiving last year.

 

[madguy30]

Perhaps I'm aiming too high but I'm hoping ISU can get close to 2,000 yards total rushing to get to a different level of success all over.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

Based on what coaches have said in terms of RBs, I'll be surprised if Brock burns a RS this year. I also expect Hall and Lang to get a bulk of the carries. Of the returners Lang was the best pure runner and best at catching the ball as well in my opinion, though small sample size. Hall seems to be a Swiss Army Knife, but let's see how it all translates come game time. I think they will find ways to get Kene the ball, but I don't think he'll get as many touches on offense as Hall or Lang. With the emergence of the TEs I don't think we'll see 500 yds receiving by the RBs. Guessing ISU's RBs had about 200 yds receiving last year.

You pretty much hit everything I thought while I was looking through his predictions. I'll also guess that Purdy doesn't have that many rushing attempts and Soehner doesn't get that many catches.

Props to @Clone5 for putting that much detail into a post, though. The game predictions are pretty close to where I am at, as well. I think that WVU game is going to be scarier than I'd prefer. K-state, too.

 

[Clone5]

If we're assuming players will be healthy all season long your Johnnie Lang stats, specifically the amount of carries he'll have, is too low. The starting spot is currently him 1A and Breece Hall 1B.

Based on what coaches have said in terms of RBs, I'll be surprised if Brock burns a RS this year. I also expect Hall and Lang to get a bulk of the carries. Of the returners Lang was the best pure runner and best at catching the ball as well in my opinion, though small sample size. Hall seems to be a Swiss Army Knife, but let's see how it all translates come game time. I think they will find ways to get Kene the ball, but I don't think he'll get as many touches on offense as Hall or Lang. With the emergence of the TEs I don't think we'll see 500 yds receiving by the RBs. Guessing ISU's RBs had about 200 yds receiving last year.

I hadn't heard much about the running back situation lately so I appreciate your insights.
I'm glad to hear Brock could potentially redshirt. Hopefully we don't need him this year. Based on what you've said I would slide Brock's carries mostly to Lang. Unless one of our top receiving options really breaks out it was hard to find enough passing yards and that's why the RB's ended up with so many catches and yards compared to previous years. I do think we will use these guys more in the passing game to supplement the run but I agree it will be hard to get to the yardage totals I have for them.

 

[dualthreat]

Based on what coaches have said in terms of RBs, I'll be surprised if Brock burns a RS this year. I also expect Hall and Lang to get a bulk of the carries. Of the returners Lang was the best pure runner and best at catching the ball as well in my opinion, though small sample size. Hall seems to be a Swiss Army Knife, but let's see how it all translates come game time. I think they will find ways to get Kene the ball, but I don't think he'll get as many touches on offense as Hall or Lang. With the emergence of the TEs I don't think we'll see 500 yds receiving by the RBs. Guessing ISU's RBs had about 200 yds receiving last year.

He can play in 4 games and still redshirt

 

[Clone5]

You pretty much hit everything I thought while I was looking through his predictions. I'll also guess that Purdy doesn't have that many rushing attempts and Soehner doesn't get that many catches.

Props to @Clone5 for putting that much detail into a post, though. The game predictions are pretty close to where I am at, as well. I think that WVU game is going to be scarier than I'd prefer. K-state, too.

I think Purdy's rush attempts will be really dependent on how our RB's and O-Line are progressing. I reduced his total carries from last year but I can't see it going much lower than 75 with the way he plays.
Thanks! Something had to get me through this week.
You know at least one of those games we should win like K State or WVU is going to come down to the wire.

 

[Dandy]

I think Purdy's rush attempts will be really dependent on how our RB's and O-Line are progressing. I reduced his total carries from last year but I can't see it going much lower than 75 with the way he plays.
Thanks! Something had to get me through this week.

I'm fine with him running the ball a lot because he was very effective last year but dude definitely needs to take less big hits. Slide or go out of bounds.

 

[Go2Guy]

"....Adding Manning back will end up being a tremendous asset for the O-Line..."

I agree and hope it will improve / reduce. 1) the time it takes to get sideline plays called and, 2) delay of game penalties. Man, that was frustrating last year.

 

[azhuth09]

Props for that much detail. Personally I'd adjust your predictions like this...

Too High
Nwangwu (Rushing not receiving)
Croney & Brock
Scates

Too Low
Darren Wilson
Jonnie Lang
Breece Hall

 

[TyCloneHoops]

Is that 12 interceptions by Purdy?

 

[AuH2O]

He can play in 4 games and still redshirt

I know, but OP had Brock with 88 touches, which suggests burning a RS even with the four game allowance.

 

[Clone5]

I amended the rushing/receiving numbers to account for the fact Brock may well redshirt.

 

[Clone5]

I know, but OP had Brock with 88 touches, which suggests burning a RS even with the four game allowance.

I just changed that after reading a few things.

 

[Clone5]

Is that 12 interceptions by Purdy?

Yes, I do think he will have to do a lot more through the air for us which is why the INT's are higher and the completion percentage basically maintained from last year.

 

[inCyteful]

Perhaps I'm aiming too high but I'm hoping ISU can get close to 2,000 yards total rushing to get to a different level of success all over.

Agreed. I think we have to average 150/game to take next step forward. That is 1800 yards. To be in contention for Big XII top 2, probably have to do better than that.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

I'm stealing Planned Sick Days' shtick on Twitter and predicting some Iowa State stats.

Passing
Brock Purdy- 270/400, 68%, 3,350 YDS, 25 TD, 12 INT

Rushing (445 ATT/1,679 YDS/3.77 YPC, 15 TD)
Breece Hall- 135 ATT, 613 YDS, 4.6 YPC, 5 TD
Johnnie Lang- 90 ATT, 297 YDS, 3.3 YPC, 2 TD
Brock Purdy- 85 ATT, 296 YDS, 3.5 YPC, 5 TD
Kene Nwangwu- 70 ATT, 255 YDS, 3.7 YPC, 2 TD
Sheldon Croney- 65 ATT, 218 YDS, 3.4 YPC, 1 TD

Receiving (270, 3,350 YDS, 25 TD)
Deshaunte Jones- 47 REC, 470 YDS, 10.0 YPC, 4 TD
Tarique Milton- 42 REC, 505 YDS, 12.0 YPC, 4 TD
Joe Scates- 30 REC, 400 YDS, 13.3 YPC, 3 TD
Charlie Kolar- 25 REC, 392 YDS, 15.7 YPC, 5 TD
La'Michael Pettway- 25 REC, 345 YDS, 13.8 YPC, 3 TD
Chase Allen- 20 REC, 290 YDS, 14.5 YPC, 3 TD
Kene Nwangwu- 15 REC, 138 YDS, 9.2 YPC, 1 TD
Sheldon Croney- 15 REC, 120 YDS, 8.0 YPC
Landen Akers- 15 REC, 220 YDS, 14.7 YPC, 1 TD
Breece Hall- 14 REC- 172 YDS, 12.3 YPC
Dylan Soehner- 10 REC, 80 YDS, 8 YPC
Johnnie Lang- 6 REC, 78 YDS, 13 YPC
Darren Wilson- 3 REC, 70 YDS, 23.3 YPC
Sean Shaw Jr.- 3 REC, 70 YDS, 23.3 YPC

Notes-

• Overall I think our offense takes a small step back from last year without Montgomery and Butler but the balance and depth allows them to do just enough to let one of our best ever defenses win games.
• Adding Manning back will end up being a tremendous asset for the O-Line.
• Purdy is better about picking his spots scrambling and we do not call designed runs for him as often. Because of this and improved O-Line play he is able to take all or most of our snaps this year.
• I had no idea what to do with Mitchell. I'm hopeful he ends up on the field somehow so feel free to take some rushing/receiving attempts from our lower end guys and attribute them to him.
• We will give Croney, Kene and Lang chances early in the year but it will be hard to keep Brock and Hall off the field eventually. Hall and Brock along with Scates are the breakout guys for this year.

Game Predictions (9-3 overall)
vs. UNI- Iowa State 28/UNI 10
vs. Iowa- Iowa State 17/Iowa 13
vs. LA-Monroe- Iowa State 33/ULM 10
@ Baylor- Iowa State 20/Baylor 23 (This pains me to predict but I think we will drop one out of the first four Big 12 games)
vs. TCU- Iowa State 20/TCU 14
@ WVU- Iowa State 31/WVU 24
@ TTU- Iowa State 27/TTU 17
vs. OK State- Iowa State 30/OK State 32
@ Oklahoma- Iowa State 14/Oklahoma 30
vs. Texas- Iowa State 17/Texas 14 (In one of the great Jack Trice games ever)
vs. KU- Iowa State 33/Kansas 17
@ KState- Iowa State 28/KState 17

Jeese couldn't you have at least put some time and thought into this?

 

[TyCloneHoops]

Yes, I do think he will have to do a lot more through the air for us which is why the INT's are higher and the completion percentage basically maintained from last year.

Makes sense.