If a kid leaves early to get drafted, and it doesn't happen, it's too bad and you wish the best for them, but it was their choice.
THT Going into the Draft
- Thread starter JM4CY
- Start date
Lol. He’s getting drafted. His in the first round of most mocks and worst case he falls to the second round.
I’m thinking Lindell is who you are thinking of. I’m also pretty sure he knows he isn’t getting drafted.
If I were an NBA GM, I would not take THT in the 1st round, and would consider not taking him in the 2nd too depending on who all was still available at my pick.
When watching him play this season at ISU, I never felt he was ready for the NBA yet. He just has way too much to work on still IMO.
When watching him play this season at ISU, I never felt he was ready for the NBA yet. He just has way too much to work on still IMO.
That’s why you aren’t a GM, or in affiliated with a team in any way.
It’s the NBA draft. They draft for talent and youth.
You know there is already a poster with the name knownothing on this site
I don't disagree with anything you say other than your last sentence.
I would change it to this.... "They draft for potential and youth."
Some guys that are drafted are not even talented enough to be in the NBA, but GM's hope they will be someday. I understand that, but if I were a GM I'd have a really tough time doing that.
No you wouldn’t because you would have a network of scouts, coaches and former players advising you on who to take.
Why in the hell cant people just be happy for the kid? He’s ******* good at basketball deal with it.
I’d say you should probably just stop. You have no clue about this. We will add it to the list.
Early 2nd round isn’t bad. Lots of 2nd round guys have had success recently and if they really show potential they can get decent contracts early. There’s a very good chance he sticks with the NBA team his first year as a high second rounder and gets great help to improve on his weaknesses.
Contractually speaking...what is the difference between being picked #30 (first round) and #31 (second round)? I know there will be a certain dollar amount but how much? And what type of guarantees/advantages/benefits for the guy going #30 that aren't there for the guy going #31?
https://brobible.com/sports/article/nba-draft-contract-values-first-second-round/
-- first-round picks have at least some guaranteed money
-- that guaranteed contract is at least for two years, if I remember
-- there are various team options and RFA to extend that contract, as well
-- making the first-round at all is worth at least like $1.5 million on its own, even if you never play a minute for an NBA team and just kick around the D-League
-- after that, literally nothing is guaranteed... a team could take you 31st overall and just choose not to sign you, which means you are out on your behind
-- you basically get what you can negotiate/earn at that point, as you can see
-- roughly half the second-round does not sign with their team
-- of them, they usually get about half the money as late first-round picks
So basically falling from #30 to #31 reduces your expected return by 75%.
The upside of playing yourself into the first-round is so great and the unknowns with the second-round so difficult that you are generally better off returning to school no matter what unless you are really sure you are going in the first-round. We will see if it works out for THT and LW. We think THT has a late first-round lock, but LW has a steep road to climb.
30th = $1,350,400 first year $1,581,500 second year $1,656,900 third year guaranteed
31st = $0 guaranteed
Edit: that is the rookie scale. First round picks can sign for as much as 120% and as little as 80% of the rookie scale and the third year is optional.
https://brobible.com/sports/article/nba-draft-contract-values-first-second-round/
-- first-round picks have at least some guaranteed money
-- that guaranteed contract is at least for two years, if I remember
-- there are various team options and RFA to extend that contract, as well
-- making the first-round at all is worth at least like $1.5 million on its own, even if you never play a minute for an NBA team and just kick around the D-League
-- after that, literally nothing is guaranteed... a team could take you 31st overall and just choose not to sign you, which means you are out on your behind
-- you basically get what you can negotiate/earn at that point, as you can see
-- roughly half the second-round does not sign with their team
-- of them, they usually get about half the money as late first-round picks
So basically falling from #30 to #31 reduces your expected return by 75%.
The upside of playing yourself into the first-round is so great and the unknowns with the second-round so difficult that you are generally better off returning to school no matter what unless you are really sure you are going in the first-round. We will see if it works out for THT and LW. We think THT has a late first-round lock, but LW has a steep road to climb.
Thanks for the information. Can't imagine being a guy (like THT) being projected in the late first round! Makes me feel bad for that guy at #31!
Yeah, it really is a chasm in terms of your expected $$$ and future from one pick to the next. Lots of guys are going to have some awful butterflies in their stomach when it comes down to those last handful of picks in the first-round on June 20.
There is the added "weight" of the moment being that it kind of brands and ossifies your raw level of talent for your future in the league, too. High draft picks, even if obvious busts, are given chance after chance because of their purported potential from going high in the draft. Guys who went late in the first or in the second? Not so much.
I have seen a similar effect in the job market -- I have seen some people with gaudy degrees who are completely useless employees. They get more opportunities and chances, though, simply because of that parchment compared to more productive and flexible workers who did not tank 4-5 years getting the "right" degrees like somebody else.
Your degree "brands" you just as much as your draft position.
