Big 12 Championship Game scenarios for Iowa State

[ChrisMWilliams]

There are 4 (out of 32) scenarios where the Cyclones could still make this game...

https://cyclonefanatic.com/2017/11/big-12-championship-game-so-youre-saying-theres-a-chance/

 

[Sigmapolis]

Sounds like we need an ISU win (duh) and the real bottleneck is going to be Baylor versus TCU. That goes down as a Baylor victory, and we are in good shape.

 

[chuckd4735]

Sounds like we need an ISU win (duh) and the real bottleneck is going to be Baylor versus TCU. That goes down as a Baylor victory, and we are in good shape.

If Baylor beats TCU, and TT beats Texas, we are golden.

 

[Sigmapolis]

What would it have looked like if we had won the OSU game now?

 

[mctallerton]

What would it have looked like if we had won the OSU game now?

Win and in

 

[Cy$]

pretty sure WVU can still make it if ISU, BU, KU, WVU, TTU all win.

ISU, WVU, and TCU would be tied. All went 1-1 against each other.

ISU and WVU would advance to the next tiebreaker due to beating OU.

Then it would go to WVU vs. ISU, where WVU would advance due to the head to head win.

So his first scenario would send WVU, not ISU....

 

[Cy$]

What would it have looked like if we had won the OSU game now?

beat KSU and they would be in.

 

[HFCS]

Might be a good pinned thread for a week.

I actually have a coworker out in California I've sucked into this who has been crunching scenarios with me on our lunch break the past few weeks, all the scenarios have him more interested in the B12 race. It's pretty unique in college football that the two spots rather than one creates so many complexities. If this were just one slot from the conference it'd be over. It's kind of like how MLB keeps so many more teams alive with the wild card.

 

[chuckd4735]

pretty sure WVU can still make it if ISU, BU, KU, WVU, TTU all win.

ISU, WVU, and TCU would be tied. All went 1-1 against each other.

ISU and WVU would advance to the next tiebreaker due to beating OU.

Then it would go to WVU vs. ISU, where WVU would advance due to the head to head win.

So his first scenario would send WVU, not ISU....

Unless I am missing something, I agree.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Might be a good pinned thread for a week.

I actually have a coworker out in California I've sucked into this who has been crunching scenarios with me on our lunch break the past few weeks, all the scenarios have him more interested in the B12 race. It's pretty unique in college football that the two spots rather than one creates so many complexities. If this were just one slot from the conference it'd be over. It's kind of like how MLB keeps so many more teams alive with the wild card.

Thank goodness we did not do any lame divisions. Way more intriguing race and you actually end up with your best two teams playing each other.

Other conferences should take note.

 

[HFCS]

Unless I am missing something, I agree.

Wouldn't that be weird if they lose and play themselves into an instant rematch.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Win and in

beat KSU and they would be in.

What about losing to KSU after winning against OSU?

I just wonder if our ticket would have already been punched or dang near it.

 

[Cy$]

What about losing to KSU after winning against OSU?

I just wonder if our ticket would have already been punched or dang near it.

I'm guessing ISU would be in a slightly better situation then they are presently. It would have been a long shot though.

 

[Dale]

What about losing to KSU after winning against OSU?

I just wonder if our ticket would have already been punched or dang near it.

Using the Python program I wrote to simulate the Big 12 season 100k times, pretending ISU beats OSU and loses to KSU:

Oklahoma: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
TCU: 97.3% (0.0% 1st, 97.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 2.5% (0.0% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)

In the real world, assuming an ISU win Saturday:

Oklahoma: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
TCU: 99.2% (0.0% 1st, 99.2% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 0.8% (0.0% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: <0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)

So ISU's chances would improve from infinitesimal to merely very very unlikely.

Just because, here's the odds if ISU had won both those games:

Oklahoma: 100.0% (80.9% 1st, 19.1% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 100.0% (19.1% 1st, 80.9% 2nd)

 

[runbikeswim]

I don't think Baylor will be a cake-walk for TCU. BU is not really that bad now, and nothing more dangerous that a team that has nothing to lose and everything to prove, and weapons to do it with.

 

[Playboi Carti]

Will Kenny Hill being playing? I just don't see TCU losing, their defense is really good.

 

[TedKumsher]

pretty sure WVU can still make it if ISU, BU, KU, WVU, TTU all win.

ISU, WVU, and TCU would be tied. All went 1-1 against each other.

ISU and WVU would advance to the next tiebreaker due to beating OU.

Then it would go to WVU vs. ISU, where WVU would advance due to the head to head win.

So his first scenario would send WVU, not ISU....

Unless I am missing something, I agree.

I also agree.

 

[StLouisClone]

So there is still a chance for ISU to win 10 games this year. As much as the Big 12 would hate it if OU missed out on the playoffs, I have a feeling a lot of Big 12 fans would be pulling for us in that game.

 

[StLouisClone]

Will Kenny Hill being playing? I just don't see TCU losing, their defense is really good.

Hopefully Baylor views it as their bowl game. I give them a 10% chance of winning. Their running back seems capable of having a breakout game.

 

[harimad]

pretty sure WVU can still make it if ISU, BU, KU, WVU, TTU all win.

ISU, WVU, and TCU would be tied. All went 1-1 against each other.

ISU and WVU would advance to the next tiebreaker due to beating OU.

Then it would go to WVU vs. ISU, where WVU would advance due to the head to head win.

So his first scenario would send WVU, not ISU....

I read this post yesterday, and thought to myself. You know, self, Cash is right!

Then I re-read it again today, and noticed for the first time that the WVU bid scenario involves KU winning their game, and realized that it doesn't matter if you're right or not.