So Quintana is set to start today and Friday, Lester tomorrow and Saturday, Arrieta Tuesday and Sunday, and Hendricks on Thursday. Maddon has stated he really doesnt want to rest anyone, and without a day off, this rotation is pretty much set in stone from here on out.
Knowing that Game 1 of the NLDS is Thursday, Arrieta would effectively be out as the Game 1 starter unless we skip his start next Sunday. Do you want him starting Game 1 on 9 days rest?I also dont think you want Lester pitching in Wrigley with the way he is giving up homeruns, but at the same time, do you want Lester pitching Game 5 if it comes to that? Quintana has been good, but he has no postseason experience. Hendricks is rolling, but his home/away splits are nothing like they were last year, so I'm guessing Joe wants him pitching at home with the way he induces ground balls.
I guess it will probably come down to how Lester pitches in his next two games. If he pitches well, my guess is he gets the Game 1 start, with Arrieta going game 2. If Lester continues to proves he doesn't have it, probably skip Jakes start on Sunday and he goes Game 1 with Lester Game 2.
Just throw Jake a few innings and he'll be fine for game one. Lester shouldn't start before game 4.