What makes a player a high draft pick?

[randomfan44]

I guess what I'm saying is in football, if you're a top 5 "anything" in the NCAA you're getting drafted. period. So why is basketball different?

Basketball is a totally different game at the college level versus the pros. Add in that NBA rosters are dramatically smaller, NBA careers are longer on average, injuries in the NBA are less frequent leading to less roster turnover and then throw in the influx of international players in the NBA Draft that doesn't happen in the NFL Draft and that should explain it.

 

[McKinney]

Malou could declare right now and have a 10000X better chance of getting drafted than Monte does. You almost hurt yourself by playing CBB.

Passing along information heard at Fantasy Camp. Hoiberg was asked about Monte's pro prospects, and he responded that there are algorithms NBA front offices use to project who will be a successful pro player. It takes into account stats, physical attributes, age, etc. He said Monte scores very high, and his age surely helps him.

My take: I'm sure that this information is being shared with Morris. Morris will declare when he figures that an extra year of age plugged into the model will hurt him more than his potential to improve his other attributes to offset it. That will be when his value is at its height.

 

[clone52]

Morris finished his freshman and sophomore seasons on fire from deep. I would expect that 34% to rise. Morris' offense, in general, seems to pick up in March.

Very early in the season. I think Thomas was 30% a couple games ago and now 46%. If Morris goes 3-3 against UNI, he'd now be having his best shooting season of his career.

 

[ISUCY23]

One thing definitely hurt Morris is his athleticism. At his size, he'd need elite speed and quickness to be drafted high, which he has neither.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

Measurables: Height, wing span, jump height, open court speed
Freak Talent: Tomahawk dunks, cross over fade away threes, 5.0 assist to turnover ratio
Ceiling: The likelyhood a player will potentiate his Measurables and Freakish Talent.

 

[clone52]

I happened to stumble onto John Stockton's stats. Physically, very similar to Monte (6'1", 175lbs). It seems to me like his impact to his NBA team is very similar to Monte's impact on Iowa State. Not the #1 offensive option, but can take the big shot when necessary. Runs the offense effectively with a lot of assists. Good 3 point shooter but not a great 3 point shooter by any means. Not a lock down defender, but a good defender who gets you a couple of steals per game. If you look at their college career track, they are very similar so far, with Monte having the edge playing against tougher competition.

My main concern with Monte in the NBA was size and the ability to defend, but that didn't hamper Stockton. Avery Bradley is a current player similar in stature to Morris having himself a pretty good start to an NBA career. Mike Conley is another one.

Predicting draft position is such a crap shoot. How many teams need a point guard? How many good PG prospects are out there?

My hunch is that whenever Morris goes, he'll be late first round. I don't think he has a high ceiling, but I don't think he'll be a bust. I don't really see him as being a star point guard that you build a team around, but I can totally see him being the starting PG on a team built around another star.

 

[baagoe]

Um, Royce White signed briefly with that BS AmeriLeague start-up out in Vegas before the whole thing crumbled to the ground. He isn't in the NBA at all. http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_...ketball-league-founder-true-identity-revealed

He said Royce is an NBA talent. Not NBA PLAYER, NBA Talent. Huge difference.

 

[Tedcyclone]

Monte is not a high NBA draft pick. May not be one at all. What does Monte lack you ask? He lacks the physical assertion in one on one situations to go through the defender and either draw a foul or make the lay up. With the rules set up so a defender cannot check you or touch you or breathe on you his inability to make contested lay ins at the rim in my opinion is what he lacks. The rest of his game is good.

 

[Cy$]

Potential, potential, potential.

Yep, see Smart vs. Kane

 

[CycloneErik]

Measurables: Height, wing span, jump height, open court speed
Freak Talent: Tomahawk dunks, cross over fade away threes, 5.0 assist to turnover ratio
Ceiling: The likelyhood a player will potentiate his Measurables and Freakish Talent.

I was going to go hog wild mocking this word, but it's a real one. I done learnt something today.

 

[AuH2O]

Passing along information heard at Fantasy Camp. Hoiberg was asked about Monte's pro prospects, and he responded that there are algorithms NBA front offices use to project who will be a successful pro player. It takes into account stats, physical attributes, age, etc. He said Monte scores very high, and his age surely helps him.

My take: I'm sure that this information is being shared with Morris. Morris will declare when he figures that an extra year of age plugged into the model will hurt him more than his potential to improve his other attributes to offset it. That will be when his value is at its height.

The one thing that could really boost his draft stock is becoming a better 3pt shooter and FT shooter. If he catches fire from deep this year then he probably can only go down on terms of draft status. If he ends the year in the low 30s % he's going to have a tough time. Guaranteed money for PGs is going to go to guys that have elite quickness (Rose and Conley), can be a match-up problem (Carter-Williams) or are elite shooters (Curry). You can't lack all of these things and get drafted in the first round.

The best case for a guy like Monte to come back is Curry. Going into his final season at Davidson he was an elite shooter, but not a very good ball handler, was undersized and wasnt a great explosive athlete. He made himself into an excellent ball handler so he could make the leap to being an NBA PG.

 

[clones8232]

MM lacks the strength, size, and the outside shooting to be a high pick. He will be drafted on potential, but my guess is that he will have a lackluster NBA career. Niang just isn't a good fit for the NBA. He gets his shot off way to slow and he isn't going to 'out-quick' anyone at that level. I could see McKay having success in the NBA. He would fit into a very nice role player for someone who wants a running big man. He won't be an all-star, but I could see him having a nice career.

 

[Gunnerclone]

MM lacks the strength, size, and the outside shooting to be a high pick. He will be drafted on potential, but my guess is that he will have a lackluster NBA career. Niang just isn't a good fit for the NBA. He gets his shot off way to slow and he isn't going to 'out-quick' anyone at that level. I could see McKay having success in the NBA. He would fit into a very nice role player for someone who wants a running big man. He won't be an all-star, but I could see him having a nice career.

Who is he out-quicking at this level? Lol.

 

[isutrevman]

MM needs to improve his outside shot...a lot to get drafted...which is why I think he will be back..Prohm might just make him more of a 2 next year with Jackson running pg some. Just my thought.

His shooting should be more than good enough. Hasn't he been around 40% from 3 in his career and seems to make most of his pull up jumpers this year. He is a lot better shooter than Westbrook, Rondo or Rose were in college. Those guys are on another level from a quickness and athleticism standpoint though. If he doesn't get drafted its because he lacks explosiveness and size, not shooting ability.

I don't think a lot of players and fans grasp just how hard it is to get the the NBA and stay there. How many players that get drafted are actually still in the league after 2 years? Maybe 25%?

 

[Tazzels]

1) You need to have a position to play. Tweeners don't translate well in the NBA. Morris has a position to play. Kane and Ejim were tweeners.

2) Ability to defend your position. No zones to hide behind or at least very limited ones. Morris is a good college defender but not a lock down or plus defender. Probably an average average defender in NBA. He doesn't have a true NBA body and lacks strength or great or above average quickness.

3) You need to have a weapon. Something you are very good at that is difficult for opposing team to take away. Morris has an excellent assist to turnover ratio. Good but not a great penetrator who might struggle to get to and finish at the rim in the NBA. Average out side shooter. Not a great shooter who might struggle with 3 point range and accuracy in NBA.

Probably most likely late first to early second round pick. Many teams would rather take a chance on athleticism or a Euro player.

Good Example. Jeff Hornacek probably moved without the ball as good as anybody in the NBA, had a very quick release jumps hot with 3 point range and excellent accuracy.

Average to Solid defender and very good passer. All-star shooting guard.

 

[Cynonymous]

His shooting should be more than good enough. Hasn't he been around 40% from 3 in his career and seems to make most of his pull up jumpers this year. He is a lot better shooter than Westbrook, Rondo or Rose were in college. Those guys are on another level from a quickness and athleticism standpoint though. If he doesn't get drafted its because he lacks explosiveness and size, not shooting ability.

I don't think a lot of players and fans grasp just how hard it is to get the the NBA and stay there. How many players that get drafted are actually still in the league after 2 years? Maybe 25%?

It's due to not having the elite athleticism that make it critical that he needs to elevate his shooting. Think Napier.. that should be a target for Morris. Morris has the other skills down. Morris has hit the 3, but it has been relatively low volume. Efficient but not a consistent threat.

 

[Lafaester54]

MM needs to improve his outside shot...a lot to get drafted...which is why I think he will be back..Prohm might just make him more of a 2 next year with Jackson running pg some. Just my thought.

Agree that MM could use a better outside shot % but I certainly hope he is back playing point most of the time nest year. At least in my opinion, he is the biggest reason for our success both last year and this year. A solid pg (and Morris is one of the best around) is the difference between a good team and teams like ISU the last few years. I think we are very competitive next year if MM returns.
Regarding the NBA, I think it was much better basketball when it was a team game and not so much just clear the side. If he ends up in the right situation, I think Morris can play in the league. I also think he is athletic based his ability to get past opposing guards about any time he wants to. Also a very solid defender.

 

[CyJack13]

It's due to not having the elite athleticism that make it critical that he needs to elevate his shooting. Think Napier.. that should be a target for Morris. Morris has the other skills down. Morris has hit the 3, but it has been relatively low volume. Efficient but not a consistent threat.

Napier is barely hanging on in the league, probably not the guy Monte should be trying model his game after.

 

[CyJack13]

Agree that MM could use a better outside shot % but I certainly hope he is back playing point most of the time nest year. At least in my opinion, he is the biggest reason for our success both last year and this year. A solid pg (and Morris is one of the best around) is the difference between a good team and teams like ISU the last few years. I think we are very competitive next year if MM returns.
Regarding the NBA, I think it was much better basketball when it was a team game and not so much just clear the side. If he ends up in the right situation, I think Morris can play in the league. I also think he is athletic based his ability to get past opposing guards about any time he wants to. Also a very solid defender.

The NBA is much more of a team game now than it was in the past thanks to the new defensive rules, it was much more of an iso game up until the mid 200's.

 

[Cynonymous]

Napier is barely hanging on in the league, probably not the guy Monte should be trying model his game after.

Monte has superior distribution, but Napier is a good target offensively to aim for since that branch of topic was shooting/scoring.