I may have missed it, but don't think I have seen a clone fan that understands how the Big Ten could force the issue...like it or not.
It takes seven home games to sustain the budget.
In a nine game conference schedule with five Big Ten home games...we could play ISU at the jack and two cream puffs at home. With a four Big Ten home game schedule, we would need all three non-conference games to be at home.
If the Big Ten would give us a consistent rotation of 4...5...4...5...we could probably make the home/home rivalry with the clones work. The problem is that that will not happen. We may go something like 5...4...4...5, in which case in that third year the AD would lose the revenue of a whole game. Cannot do that.
So to keep the rivalry going the game would have to potentially be played in IC more than ames, or isu would have to be flexible with the Big Ten schedule.
Neither of those is fair to ask of isu, so the decision comes down to ending the rivalry.
* I could be way off base but that is the way I understand it.
I think you understand this one potential outcome well, but you are missing something: because of proximity and affinity and history, ISU and Iowa City
can and might work out a different financial arrangement than the standard contract. In other words, a game in Ames can be "declared" a home game for Iowa City, or vice versa, for revenue purposes on an occasional year. Or they could develop a true neutral revenue split, or what-have-you. Heck, they can get the legislature involved if they really want the game.
On the other hand, if Iowa doesn't want the game for some reason, and ISU is just as happy facing off with the easier Gophers or old enemy Nebraska in the non-conference as well, I'm sure that could be arranged.
But MOST importantly, the Big Ten isn't operating in a vacuum. All the conferences are shifting, which may make the pool of "decent" non-conference teams available to anyone a lot, lot smaller. In that case, Iowa may end up fighting tooth and nail for the ISU game, so they don't end up with one or two non-bowl qualifying non-conference games: a distinct possibility if the leagues develop stringent "home defense" policies for non-conference games.