***2026 Minnesota Vikings***

[clonehenge]

According to Sportradar, the Vikings had the worst retention rate of draft picks from 2021-2024 at 32.4%. Meaning only 32.4% of the players drafted in that period were still on the team in 2025. I knew they were bad but I didn't know they were that bad.

Kwesi may have been the scapegoat for the terrible drafts but something had to change before this year's draft.

Because the drafts were so bad they had to make up for that by spending quite a bit in free agency. It worked out well for them 2 years ago with guys like Greenard, Van Ginkle, and Cashman. And terrible last year with Allen and Hargrave.

They're doing a reset this year financially and I'm all for it. I loved Greenard but he's getting up there in age and wasn't worth the money he wanted. Rob B said during the draft that what they were spending wasn't sustainable and they're were going to have to take some hits right now to be better off financially in the future.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[Marcelason78]

Don’t know anything about these two, but I do think the Vikes do need new blood. Keep Rob as the cap guy.

 

[clone52]

Most of the teams you named had one of two things: A few seasons of .500 or worse records to build up a little with before reaching dominant state, OR They already had a HOF or near-HOF QB and additional skill position talent, almost all of which was also drafted.

The Steelers are a great comp to Minnesota, actually, save for one recent-ish SB from a HOF QB. Steelers are consistently good, win the division here and there, win a playoff game on occasion, but aren't a serious SB contender and don't go the distance. They don't have any downers really, but also no upper seasons in a long time. Constant state of slightly above average, with the ceiling being there too.

The Chiefs were pretty forgettable pre-Mahomes. Patriots have been very bad between Brady and last year. Seahawks have completely retooled roster and coaching staff and reached a SB that nobody predicted, they had some downers before. SF has made many big roster moves to gain team capital in the long run over time. Denver has blown up and rebuilt a few times.

These are the areas MIN hasn't done well -- blockbuster trades for capital or losing enough for high draft picks. We didn't have a top-5 pick to spend on a Drake Maye. Don't sell the stars occasionally to gain capital or move up drafts.

None of those teams had a few seasons of .500 or worse records to build up.

 

[MeowingCows]

None of those teams had a few seasons of .500 or worse records to build up.

Seattle:

Missed or didn't win a playoff game, but consistently hit on midround skill player talent that was fulfilled enough by Darnold. SB win.

KC:

** Better than I remembered. Mahomes drafted 2017, now HOF QB.

Pittsburgh:

Basically always within a game or two of .500, hasn't won a playoff game in nearly a decade. Sounds familiar. Biggest problem is QB play by far, generally has good skill position players overall.

New England:

Maye drafted 2024, after 4 win season. Quite literally a multi-year bottom out leading to a Super Bowl appearance (good drafting around Maye also helped).

In this dataset, the Vikings are the Steelers. The Patriots are the team who bottomed-out and turned around into a SB team.

These teams all teetered around a game or two of .500 (save KC doing better an NE doing worse) regularly until unlocking the last pieces to go the distance. Pittsburgh hasn't done that, and neither has Minnesota.

 

[Letterkenny]

This. The Wilf's would rather win 9-11 games every season and complete for the playoffs, but likely not get a championship than totally bottom out for a few years with the hope that they can truly compete for a championship when they come out of it.
And I think the Wilf's are really good owners. But that is their philosophy.

Is there any evidence tanking actually works in the NFL? I haven't seen it.

 

[MeowingCows]

Is there any evidence tanking actually works in the NFL? I haven't seen it.

The Patriots, right now.

 

[Letterkenny]

The Patriots, right now.

I guess you're right, that is evidence.

Are they an outlier, or is there a trend of that working? Also, did they intentionally tank to accumulate $$ and draft picks? Or did it just happen? I could see tanking for a generational QB, but that's extremely risky as no one knows who the generational QBs will be.

 

[stuclone]

I see they're interviewing John McKay from the Rams. He'd be my choice

 

[clone52]

Seattle:
View attachment 170877
Missed or didn't win a playoff game, but consistently hit on midround skill player talent that was fulfilled enough by Darnold. SB win.

KC:
View attachment 170878
** Better than I remembered. Mahomes drafted 2017, now HOF QB.

Pittsburgh:
View attachment 170879
Basically always within a game or two of .500, hasn't won a playoff game in nearly a decade. Sounds familiar. Biggest problem is QB play by far, generally has good skill position players overall.

New England:
View attachment 170880
Maye drafted 2024, after 4 win season. Quite literally a multi-year bottom out leading to a Super Bowl appearance (good drafting around Maye also helped).

In this dataset, the Vikings are the Steelers. The Patriots are the team who bottomed-out and turned around into a SB team.

These teams all teetered around a game or two of .500 (save KC doing better an NE doing worse) regularly until unlocking the last pieces to go the distance. Pittsburgh hasn't done that, and neither has Minnesota.

Kinda proved my pointing that flat out tanking for awhile hasn't led to super bowl victories. Current Patriots are close, though. If anything it kinda says what the Vikings are doing is fine. They have to draft better and have a little luck, but a complete and utter rebuild is rarely successful.

 

[clone52]

The Patriots, right now.

They are close but if they don't win a Super Bowl, they will have failed.

Really hard to find any other examples in the last 15-20 years, though.

 

[MeowingCows]

I guess you're right, that is evidence.

Are they an outlier, or is there a trend of that working? Also, did they intentionally tank to accumulate $$ and draft picks? Or did it just happen? I could see tanking for a generational QB, but that's extremely risky as no one knows who the generational QBs will be.

The QBs are mostly the key, and the majority of those on top teams right now were drafted. NE tried to hang on post-Brady, eventually gave up on it and sold out. One 4 win season later, Maye. Another 4 win season after, new coach. Immediately to SB after. Looking at other frequent winner/contender teams:

KC: drafted QB (1.10 pick)
PHI: drafted QB (late 2nd)
SF: ...technically a drafted QB (Mr. Irrelevant)
LAR: traded for HOF QB (Stafford, drafted 1.01)
CIN: drafted QB (1.01)
TB: traded for HOF QB (Brady)
SEA: Kind of the exception in that they picked up a FA QB, but said QB was a previous top draft pick (1.03), so...

They are close but if they don't win a Super Bowl, they will have failed.

Really hard to find any other examples in the last 15-20 years, though.

What we have now is a league dominated by QB play. MIN hadn't drafted a top-10 QB in a long, long time...prior to JJM. And we all know how that is going, but you don't get another top-10 pick without doing one of the two things I mentioned long ago: either losing a lot of games, or making splash trades to move up. Minnesota does neither (again, see also: PIT)

 

[clone52]

The QBs are mostly the key, and the majority of those on top teams right now were drafted. NE tried to hang on post-Brady, eventually gave up on it and sold out. One 4 win season later, Maye. Another 4 win season after, new coach. Immediately to SB after. Looking at other frequent winner/contender teams:

KC: drafted QB (1.10 pick)
PHI: drafted QB (late 2nd)
SF: ...technically a drafted QB (Mr. Irrelevant)
LAR: traded for HOF QB (Stafford, drafted 1.01)
CIN: drafted QB (1.01)
TB: traded for HOF QB (Brady)
SEA: Kind of the exception in that they picked up a FA QB, but said QB was a previous top draft pick (1.03), so...


What we have now is a league dominated by QB play. MIN hadn't drafted a top-10 QB in a long, long time...prior to JJM. And we all know how that is going, but you don't get another top-10 pick without doing one of the two things I mentioned long ago: either losing a lot of games, or making splash trades to move up. Minnesota does neither.

Yeah, thats also kinda my point too. Tanking to draft a QB doesn't guarentee that they get the right one. The ones that were drafted in the top 5 overall didn't take their original team to the Super Bowl at all (yet).

 

[MeowingCows]

Yeah, thats also kinda my point too. Tanking to draft a QB doesn't guarentee that they get the right one. The ones that were drafted in the top 5 overall didn't take their original team to the Super Bowl at all (yet).

That would speak more about the quality of teams drafting them, than it would the players themselves. They proved that they had SB potential after changing scenery... it's not likely that a new team magically elevated them into SB QBs.

Minnesota is content to continue being the Steelers. Be within a few games of .500 every year, but never be a threat and never have a complete team. Admittedly, Darnold showed how close he was to making them a threat, then backed it up this year. He didn't play that great for SEA, but he did enough to keep winning when it mattered.

 

[clone52]

That would speak more about the quality of teams drafting them, than it would the players themselves. They proved that they had SB potential after changing scenery... it's not likely that a new team magically elevated them into SB QBs.

Sure, thats part of it. Doesn't make me feel any better about the Vikings Super Bowl chances if they decide to tank.

 

[MeowingCows]

Sure, thats part of it. Doesn't make me feel any better about the Vikings Super Bowl chances if they decide to tank.

Nobody here is promising that it'll work, but it's at least something different to try instead of the last 20 years of the same episode on repeat.

 

[houjix]

They are close but if they don't win a Super Bowl, they will have failed.

Really hard to find any other examples in the last 15-20 years, though.

Only one team wins the SB each year, the trick is getting sustained success and multiple shots to get there by winning divisions and playoff games. Houston kinda meets the criteria.

It's really hard to tank effectively in the NFL without getting called out by the league and the fanbase, but what the Texans did in 2021 and 2022 with their personnel and coaching moves worked pretty well. Never quite reached the peak of the other teams mentioned before the bottom, but they were winning a bunch of division titles. Managed to flip seriously damaged goods to another bad team resulting in both the Offensive and Defensive rookie of the year in 2023. 3 straight playoff appearances, 2 division titles, and 3 playoff wins. And if Stroud didn't forget how to play football against the Pats, they probably go on to beat Denver and make the SB.

 

[MeowingCows]

Only one team wins the SB each year, the trick is getting sustained success and multiple shots to get there by winning divisions and playoff games. Houston kinda meets the criteria.

It's really hard to tank effectively in the NFL without getting called out by the league and the fanbase, but what the Texans did in 2021 and 2022 with their personnel and coaching moves worked pretty well. Never quite reached the peak of the other teams mentioned before the bottom, but they were winning a bunch of division titles. Managed to flip seriously damaged goods to another bad team resulting in both the Offensive and Defensive rookie of the year in 2023. 3 straight playoff appearances, 2 division titles, and 3 playoff wins. And if Stroud didn't forget how to play football against the Pats, they probably go on to beat Denver and make the SB.

Texans then and New England to last season followed similar paths. Both situations were drastically improved from the foundation upward.

That's the tough part of where Minnesota tends to be -- the foundation is often fairly solid. That's why they win games as often as they do and have consistently done so. They just never have that final X-factor when they need it in a year, which is superior QB play that shows up in the playoffs (which is what just happened to Stroud).

 

[clone52]

Nobody here is promising that it'll work, but it's at least something different to try instead of the last 20 years of the same episode on repeat.

That's fair, I'd probably just disagree. I bet we can bothh probably agree that its a lost cause unless they start hitting on more and more draft picks.

To be honest, they are just a lucky QB grab away from contending. I don't think tanking completely increases that probability. They are also in good spot cap wise. Maybe Murray will be the spark this year.

 

[cyfan92]