BLUM: The secret sauce to success

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CentexCyclone

Well-Known Member
Oct 20, 2015
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Thank you Mr. Blum for a splendid article. It really did a good job of helping me crystallize my thoughts about Thursday night's Iowa State v. Texas game. I've had a sneaking suspicion that Texas' offense will not be able to put enough points on the board to win Thursday and this article helps me solidify why I think that:

Texas cannot run the ball against non-garbage competition.

Consider these facts (courtesy www.teamrankings.com):
  • In games against Power 5 defenses, Texas rushing attack is averaging 84.5 ypg at 2.5 ypa. Factoring out the San Jose State game, that would put them at 120 and 123 nationally in those categories. Not good.
  • Then look at the rushing defenses of their Power 5 opponents, Maryland (Ranked 83rd in ypg and 98th in ypa) and USC (Ranked 67th in ypg and 76th in ypa). I'd say those numbers are serviceable to mediocre.
  • Now look at ISU's rushing defense (18th ypg and 21 ypa). Granted, our competition hasn't been great so far this season, but those are still respectable numbers.
Add to this analysis the tenuous state of Texas rushing offense. Their OL was regarded as serviceable to good coming into the season with some possible issues with depth. But they lost one starter for the year in week 2 and their best OL (future NFL LT Conner Williams) against USC for an unknown amount of time. Tom Hermann admitted his concern with his OL in his weekly press conference, saying "We have 5 guys who can play, hoping for 7." That's coachspeak for "we don't have enough Big 12-ready offensive linemen to serve our need through four quarters."

Their main running back, 6'3", 250 lb Chris Warren, is more of a rumbler than a slasher. He's good when the OL gets a push and creates gaps in the defense, through which he can run for 3 yards and drag a defender an additional 2-3 yards. Without good OL play, Warren is not very effective (46 yards on 10 attempts vs. Power 5 competition). Their second running back, Kyle Porter, has only has 29 rushing attempts this year for 102 yards. I get the sense he is the new staff doesn't quite know what to do with him. I do not think Texas will have a credible threat in their run game and I'm having a hard time envisioning a scenario where either Longhorn quarterback has enough success throwing the ball through four quarters to win.

I'm trying hard not to look at this game through Cardinal and Gold colored glasses. It is entirely possible that an unknown Texas receiver will come off the bench to make 11 catches for 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. That would be such an "Iowa State" way to lose. I also get that Texas defense, particularly their DLs and LBs, are fast and physical. They will be a new challenge for the Cyclone offense and will probably make some plays against us. We've also seen them give up a lot of yards and not make plays at critical junctures of games this year. We may not quite score our average, but I think it's realistic to expect the Cyclones to put up 400 yards total offense and 30+ points and I just do not see the Texas offense being able to keep up that pace.

What am I missing here?
 
  • Informative
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crawfy54

Well-Known Member
Dec 28, 2006
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Ames, Iowa
I finally rewatched the Iowa game and was really disappointed with our secondary, specifically the corner backs. Poor coverage, worse tackling. Their play has to be better to beat the longhorns.
 
  • Agree
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tolfbfan

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2015
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Ohio
Blum missed the second most important part.........RUN IT DOWN THEIR THROATS AFTER THE DEFENSE STOPS THEM.:)