I'm not giving him great odds in Carver, but we have next to no data points on Swiderski so it's much harder to say with any confidence. Before last weekend I would have said Mendez over Byrd would have been about the same probability as Swiderski over Woods. Turns out that true freshman is already better than a back-to-back 5th place finisher.Hope you don’t think Swiderski has a shot against Woods either.
So you're comparing apples to oranges to some extent.